Season: 74-33-1
MIN (3-3) @ LAC (4-3)
Thursday, October 23 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The Chargers underperforming at the level they have on defense during their current 1-3 stretch is a surprise considering how they started the season—and last week was a low point as Daniel Jones cut them up with 288 yards and two touchdowns and Jonathan Taylor glided through them for three scores in a 38-24 loss to Indy. There is too much talent on defense to not figure things out, and it needs to start with stopping the run with Bill Croskey-Merritt (150 total yards and two touchdowns), De’Von Achane (150 total yards and two touchdowns), and Taylor (132 total yards and three touchdowns) already going off against them this month. Justin Jefferson feels primed for a monster game soon, but jumping out to an early lead could get the Vikings away from Jordan Mason and into the hands of Carson Wentz—who has two interceptions and a fumble in two losses and zero mistakes in two wins. Based on the success Justin Herbert had in the last matchup versus Minnesota two years ago (405 passing yards and three touchdowns), I like Los Angeles to get back on track with a primetime win.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
MIA (1-6) @ ATL (3-3)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Miami wanted to be tougher this year, but last week’s weather-impacted loss in Cleveland—highlighted by three rushing touchdowns from Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins—felt like the unofficial ending of the Mike McDaniel era. Change might not come until after the season, but the five-day stretch from Sunday to the night before Halloween (when they take on the Ravens) will be telling for how much fight the group has left, as Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry could run all over the Dolphins if they don’t come ready to play. De’Von Achane obviously doesn’t have the prototype build for a feature back, but he’s held up when treated as such, so McDaniel going away from the ground game as often as he has is a disappointment—and we’ll see if that changes this weekend versus an Atlanta defense that was just shredded by Christian McCaffrey in a similar offensive system. For the Falcons, the health of Michael Penix Jr. (knee) will be monitored this week, but the team needs more consistency from him to reach the heights they want to reach in 2025.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
CHI (4-2) @ BAL (1-5)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Ravens have not had the easiest schedule by any means with losses to the Bills, Lions, and Chiefs in September—but it almost seems as if the heartbreaking playoff loss to Buffalo compounded with losing to them again in the opener has lingered. Lamar Jackson (hamstring) and Roquan Smith (hamstring) are at least set to return coming out of the bye, so we’ll see if the group has a newfound focus with the AFC North still wide open considering the favorable schedule through Thanksgiving (v CHI, @ MIA, @ MIN, @ CLE, v NYJ, v CIN). Of course, the Bears have won four games in a row and will be a challenge, but Baltimore needs to feed Derrick Henry versus a defense that can get after opponents up front but has been run on (5.3 yards per carry allowed). The bigger issue for the Ravens right now is on defense, and Caleb Williams not missing (i.e., identifying) open targets when they are there could really get the Chicago offense rolling and lead to an upset if Jackson isn’t sharp in his first game back.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
BUF (4-2) @ CAR (4-3)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Buffalo is the only defense in the NFL allowing more yards per carry than the Bears this season with a whopping 5.8 yards per attempt for opponents—which is simply not the mark of a championship-caliber team. Fortunately, the bye came at an ideal time for the Bills to have a soft reset, but fixing the run defense needs to be priority No. 1; it’s scary to think about how bad the unit would be right now if not for fourth-round pick Deone Walker flashing with some impact plays (including four tackles for loss in Week 6), and everyone else needs to be better to stop Rico Dowdle on Sunday. On offense, Buffalo centering things more around James Cook, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid is the best way to elevate the supporting cast around Josh Allen without making a splash acquisition, and maybe we’ll see the reigning NFL MVP take matters into his own hands as a runner if necessary. I don’t think the Bills will overlook Andy Dalton starting in place of Bryce Young (ankle), and they can’t afford to with the Chiefs up next week in a massive game for AFC seeding implications.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
NYJ (0-7) @ CIN (3-4)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
We might not know who will start at quarterback for the Jets until Sunday with Justin Fields getting benched last week (followed by harsh criticism from team owner Woody Johnson)—but Tyrod Taylor is dealing with a knee injury that could open the door for Fields to make another start. If so, New York must get him involved as a runner to have success, and the Bengals are a beatable defense with the second-most yards per game (394.4) and points per game (30.6) allowed through seven weeks. In general, a theme for the NFL this year has been how important it is to hit on quarterback evaluations, as the winless Jets are among the teams that did not, while teams like the Colts are 6-1 with Daniel Jones and the 49ers are 4-1 with Mac Jones. After this week, I expect Cincinnati will be 2-1 with Joe Flacco—who has been lights out in two starts and had 309 yards and three touchdowns (one interception) in a 37-20 win over the Jets a couple of years ago.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
SF (5-2) @ HOU (2-4)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
There is no doubt that the 49ers are Brock Purdy’s team when healthy, but Mac Jones affords them the opportunity to get their franchise quarterback to 100% as he deals with a toe injury—and I was glad we finally got confirmation (via NBC’s Cris Collinsworth last week on the SNF broadcast) that Kyle Shanahan was targeting Jones when San Francisco traded up ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft. As we’ve seen through five starts this year, Jones is the prototype Shanahan quarterback with a quick mind to distribute the ball to the open man, and while the play style is different, it’s been similar to Purdy in that both signal-callers know how to win games; for example, Jones didn’t put up big numbers in the win over the Falcons, but he still played very well operating a Christian McCaffrey-centered attack. Although the Texans have an extremely stingy defense that can present problems (four takeaways last week in the loss to Seattle), I like San Francisco to stay hot, and maybe they’ll record their first interception of the season (and 14 games dating back to last year) if C.J. Stroud is without Nico Collins (concussion).
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
CLE (2-5) @ NE (5-2)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Mike Vrabel called the Browns the best defense they’ll have faced this season ahead of Sunday’s matchup, and he got a firsthand look at them last year as a consultant—with some even believing the Ohio native could take over as head coach there. It always felt like he would end up in New England, though, and Vrabel has the Patriots at 5-2 in his first year at the helm with an improving defense and an offense that is in great hands under Josh McDaniels. Cleveland makes for another below-.500 opponent on the schedule, but the Pats struggled versus the Raiders (with Maxx Crosby) and Steelers (with T.J. Watt) in their two losses this year, so Myles Garrett could easily lead an upset if the Browns again commit to Quinshon Judkins. However, I don’t think rookie passer Dillon Gabriel will have much luck through the air, and the Browns have struggled on the road with 12.0 points per game and losses of 24, 24, and 14 points so far this year.
Winner: New England Patriots
NYG (2-5) @ PHI (5-2)
Sunday, October 26 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The first matchup between the Giants and Eagles was perhaps the most surprising result of the season thus far, but Philadelphia was down Jalen Carter due to a heel injury, Quinyon Mitchell left the game early with a hamstring issue, and Nakobe Dean didn’t play a defensive snap in his season debut—not to mention it was a short week where crazy things can happen. New York deserves credit for playing much better than the Eagles did in Week 6 while bringing tons of energy since Jaxson Dart has taken over at quarterback, but the collapse in Denver feels like it could be a game that derails the season (and the entire regime). Plus, the rematch will come in Philadelphia, and I think the way to potentially bury the Giants is to get out to an early lead that forces Dart into a more traditional passing game, and the Eagles should be better prepared to keep rush-lane integrity this time around. But most importantly, Dean should set the tone when it comes to stopping Cam Skattebo, so I like Philly to keep the momentum going with another win after Jalen Hurts and the passing attack exploded in Week 7,
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
TB (5-2) @ NO (1-6)
Sunday, October 26 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
The Buccaneers lost Mike Evans (collarbone) early and didn’t have Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) or Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) in Monday night’s loss to Detroit, but the Lions had injuries of their own—and the showing by Baker Mayfield could be pointed at as reason to believe Tampa Bay isn’t a top-tier contender. While this week won’t be easy versus a gritty New Orleans team, Mayfield will be determined to bounce back and should have his typical edge, especially after saying he doesn’t like the Saints and labeled their play as not being “that clean.” Last year, the Bucs enjoyed a blowout win in the first meeting, but the second one was closer as Spencer Rattler (240 passing yards and a touchdown) played well for New Orleans, and I could see him having some success on scrambles if the pass rush doesn’t get home. On the other hand, it’s easy to imagine Rattler being too reckless with the ball again following a four-turnover performance in the loss to Chicago, and Tampa Bay still has the talent advantage despite their injury issues.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DAL (3-3-1) @ DEN (5-2)
Sunday, October 26 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Bo Nix had received very little credit from the media for a historic comeback win over the Giants last week, but he became the first player in NFL history to have two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a quarter—and he came through in the clutch after also doing so earlier this month to beat the Eagles. People will continue to unfairly knock Nix because they didn’t like him coming out of college, but he leads the 2024 quarterback class in wins (15), passing yards (5,331), passing touchdowns (40), rushing touchdowns (tied at seven), total yards (5,933), total touchdowns (47), and game-winning drives (six)—among other measures. I’m curious how the Denver defense will match up with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens this weekend, but Pat Surtain II called Lamb his toughest cover in college, and loaded offenses for Cincinnati (last year when Joe Burrow was healthy) and Indianapolis (in Week 2) have given Vance Joseph’s group some problems. Still, the Broncos stay home and could challenge the Dallas offensive line this week, and I don’t think Nix will cool off versus the NFL’s worst pass defense (260.3 yards per game allowed).
Winner: Denver Broncos
TEN (1-6) @ IND (6-1)
Sunday, October 26 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Tennessee was blown out by the Colts last month, 41-20, but an early pick-six snowballed into a 27-6 deficit, so maybe the Titans will be better in the rematch if they can start faster. It should also be noted that monstrous defensive lineman T’Vondre Sweat didn’t play in the first meeting, and his presence will at least give Tennessee a chance of slowing down Jonathan Taylor (17 carries for 102 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3). Unfortunately, it’s difficult to see where any advantage might be other than with the Titans’ pass-catchers versus a beat-up cornerback group for Indy, and the path to victory being a shootout probably won’t turn out well for a rookie quarterback in Cameron Ward versus the league’s No. 1 scoring offense (33.1 points per game). And with the status of Calvin Ridley (hamstring) looking extremely shaky for the second week in a row, Ward may need fellow rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike to go off to have a shot.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
GB (4-1-1) @ PIT (4-2)
Sunday, October 26 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
After the Packers were involved in a highly anticipated reunion game at the end of last month on Sunday Night Football, the final weekend of October features another—as Aaron Rodgers will face his former team for the first time. The Super Bowl XLV champion and four-time NFL MVP left on good enough terms with Green Bay and will be warmly embraced as a legend there when his playing days are over, but there is no doubt that Rodgers will come in determined after they essentially pushed him out of the door for Jordan Love (even though he says he’s not seeking revenge, and I believe this at least doesn’t come close to how he felt ahead of the matchup versus the Jets). The Packers allowing the fewest passing yards per attempt in the NFL (5.8) will probably force Rodgers to be selective in taking shots down the field that you know he’d love to connect on, but veterans Dak Prescott (319 yards and three touchdowns) and Joe Flacco (219 yards and two touchdowns with limited preparation time) both had success versus a Green Bay defense that has shown flashes but hasn’t quite put it all together; so with Pittsburgh having a few extra days of rest and the offense finding their groove despite a Week 7 loss, I like Rodgers to come out on top for what expects to be another great game.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
WAS (3-4) @ KC (4-3)
Monday, October 27 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Jayden Daniels (hamstring) has already been ruled out for Monday night, but don’t sleep on Marcus Mariota—especially as he gets a full complement of weapons with Terry McLaurin (quad) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (heel) beginning the week as full participants in practice. Remember, the last time Mariota played at Arrowhead as the starter (with the Titans in January of 2018), he led an upset win with three total touchdowns, and it was a crazy comeback from down 21-3 and included him catching his own touchdown. Ironically, the Wild Card matchup kicked off the Patrick Mahomes era as he took over for Alex Smith the following season, and now this week, Mariota will be tasked with outgunning an offense that is operating on another level with Rashee Rice back. I expect Washington to put up a fight, but the struggles so far this year could be pinned to a roster that still has work to do, and they haven’t yet handled the increased expectations after a Cinderella-type run in 2024.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs