Last week: 4-1 | Overall: 400-345-9 (53.7%)
All game lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Packers @ Bears (+1.5)
While Packers-Bears profiles as sort of a toss-up after two close matchups late in the regular season, we’ll take the points for Chicago at home. Hopefully Ben Johnson had some stuff saved for the postseason, helping the Bears get off to a faster start and ride D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai—but Caleb Williams can always bring them back if it comes to that. Additionally, Jordan Love hasn’t played since December 20.
Bills (-1.5) @ Jaguars
This line has continuously been shifting, moving more and more to the Bills’ direction. The Jaguars won 13 games and certainly earned the opportunity for a home playoff game, and we might look back on this pick as foolish given the wide receiver woes for Buffalo. Ultimately, we go with the postseason experience and performance of one of the best January players in NFL history in Josh Allen leading the way.
Chargers (+3.5) @ Patriots
The matchup coming at Gillette Stadium certainly plays a sizable role in this line, but the Chargers getting 3.5 points just feels off. The Los Angeles defense is probably the clear most difficult test for New England this season, and Justin Herbert should take care of the ball after four interceptions in the playoff loss last year to help keep this within a field goal at least.
Texans @ Steelers (+3)
Mike Tomlin has not lost a home Monday night game since being hired by the Steelers, and the franchise overall hasn’t lost at home on Monday night since the 1990s. The Texans defense won’t be as explosive at cold Pittsburgh as it would be on the fast track at home, and Aaron Rodgers has plenty of experience at this time of year in chilly temperatures. We like taking the points for the home underdog here.
Full Wild Card ATS picks
LAR @ CAR (+10.5)
GB @ CHI (+1.5)
BUF (-1.5) @ JAX
SF (+4.5) @ PHI
LAC (+3.5) @ NE
HOU @ PIT (+3)