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AP Photo/Winslow Townson

NFL Draft First-Round Hit Rate Analysis


The overall history of success for Wolf Sports when it comes to evaluating NFL Draft prospects is well-documented, and this quote from Howie Roseman on The GM Journey with Thomas Dimitroff Podcast is interesting:

 

“The GMs that are in the Hall of Fame—they hit on 60% of their first-round picks.”

 

So, that gave us the idea to focus on our would-be selections for Round 1 from the past five drafts (when we first started scouting). Because we don’t like to be critical of professional athletes by calling them “busts” (as long-time readers know), only the results are listed below; if you want to see the in-depth breakdown for each player picked by each team and by us, feel free to email (contact@wolfsports.com).

 

Notably, the amount of data isn’t the same for NFL Teams and Wolf Sports because some players—if they don’t have three seasons played and aren’t a clear “HIT” or “MISS”—are labeled as “TBD” (for example: Justin Fields would be a “TBD,” and Ja’Marr Chase would already be a “HIT”). Also, some teams might have an easier time if they consistently own higher draft picks.

 

FINAL RESULTS

 

NFL Teams: 78/127 (61.4%)

Wolf Sports: 124/143 (86.7%)

 

Atlanta Falcons

 

Actual Selections (4/6 – 66.7%)

Wolf Sports (6/6 – 100%)

 

Arizona Cardinals

 

Actual Selections (2/3 – 66.7%)

Wolf Sports (2/3 – 66.7%)

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Actual Selections (3/4 – 75.0%)

Wolf Sports (5/6 – 83.3%)

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Actual Selections (4/4 – 100.0%)

Wolf Sports (5/5 – 100.0%)

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Actual Selections (3/3 – 100.0%)

Wolf Sports (3/5 – 60.0%)

 

Chicago Bears

 

Actual Selections (1/2 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (3/3 – 100.0%)

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Actual Selections (3/5 – 60.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/5 – 80.0%)

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Actual Selections (3/5 – 60.0%)

Wolf Sports (6/7 – 85.7%)

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Actual Selections (2/4 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

Denver Broncos

 

Actual Selections (4/4 – 100.0%)

Wolf Sports (3/3 – 100.0%)

 

Detroit Lions

 

Actual Selections (3/4 – 75.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

Green Bay Packers

 

Actual Selections (4/5 – 80.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

Houston Texans

 

Actual Selections (2/2 – 100.0%)

Wolf Sports (2/2 – 100.0%)

 

Indianapolis Colts

 

Actual Selections (1/2 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (2/3 – 66.7%)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars 

 

Actual Selections (2/4 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/5 – 80.0%)

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

Actual Selections (1/2 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (2/2 – 100.0%)

 

Las Vegas Raiders

 

Actual Selections (2/8 – 25.0%)

Wolf Sports (5/7 – 71.4%)

 

Los Angeles Chargers

 

Actual Selections (4/5 – 80.0%)

Wolf Sports (5/6 – 83.3%)

 

Los Angeles Rams

 

Actual Selections (None)

Wolf Sports (None)

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Actual Selections (3/6 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (6/7 – 85.7%)

 

Minnesota Vikings

 

Actual Selections (2/5 – 40.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

New England Patriots

 

Actual Selections (3/4 – 75.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

New Orleans Saints

 

Actual Selections (3/3 – 100.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/5 – 80.0%)

 

New York Giants

 

Actual Selections (3/5 – 60.0%)

Wolf Sports (5/6 – 83.3%)

 

New York Jets

 

Actual Selections (3/4 – 75.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

Philadelphia Eagles

 

Actual Selections (1/4 – 25.0%)

Wolf Sports (2/3 – 66.7%)

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Actual Selections (2/4 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/4 – 100.0%)

 

San Francisco 49ers

 

Actual Selections (2/4 – 50.0%)

Wolf Sports (7/7 – 100.0%)

 

Seattle Seahawks

 

Actual Selections (0/2 – 0.00%)

Wolf Sports (3/3 – 100.0%)

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Actual Selections (3/4 – 75.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/5 – 80.0%)

 

Tennessee Titans

 

Actual Selections (1/5 – 20.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/6 – 66.7%)

 

Washington Commanders 

 

Actual Selections (4/5 – 80.0%)

Wolf Sports (4/5 – 80.0%)

 

FINAL RESULTS

 

NFL Teams: 78/127 (61.4%)

Wolf Sports: 124/143 (86.7%)