The 2024 NFL franchise tag window opened earlier this week, and teams have until March 5 at 4:00 PM ET to decide on whether to use the franchise or transition tag on players. These are my predictions for which players will and won’t get tagged for 2024.
Jaguars EDGE Josh Allen: YES
Coming off a 17.5-sack campaign, the 26-year-old former first-round pick will undoubtedly be franchised if no long-term deal is reached by the March 5 deadline.
Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr.: YES
Antoine Winfield Jr. is the exact type of player you want to keep in your organization after stealing him in the second round of the 2020 draft. The versatile safety is an All-Pro and Super Bowl champion.
Panthers EDGE Brian Burns: YES
Considering the reported value (multiple first-round picks) that Brian Burns previously had on the trade market, there’s no way the franchise will let him walk this offseason.
Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed: YES
This one feels more unpredictable than the first three, but I don’t see the Chiefs not tagging L’Jarius Sneed, if necessary, to avoid breaking up the top-notch cornerback duo he forms with Trent McDuffie.
Titans RB Derrick Henry: NO
The way two different Titans regimes have handled the past few years has not been great, and a shift looks like it’ll lead to Derrick Henry leaving the organization. It would be a stunner if the all-time great runner was tagged at his massive salary.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley: NO
I would not be shocked if the Giants tagged Saquon Barkley for the second consecutive season, but they’ll ultimately probably let him test the market with the hopes of bringing him back on a long-term deal. The “no” is for the franchise tag, but I could see New York placing the transition tag on Saquon to guarantee the opportunity to match any offers.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins: YES
A long-term extension for Ja’Marr Chase is a tricky situation, but it’s been clear from the Bengals side that they want to keep Tee Higgins in the mix for 2024. This might be a situation where Higgins is tagged for another run this year before figuring things out with both star receivers in 2025.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs: NO
Antonio Pierce reportedly told Josh Jacobs when he took over as the interim last season that he was his building block on the offensive side of the ball. So, he obviously wants him there long-term. However, this might be a situation similar to Barkley in that the Raiders let Jacobs test the market and go from there.
Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins: YES
A tremendous “glue guy” and coming off a career-high nine sacks, Christian Wilkins needs to remain in Miami. Wilkins easily could have earned an All-Pro nod in 2023, and he’s formed a strong combination with Zach Sieler (extended last offseason).
Ravens DT Justin Madubuike: YES
Justin Madubuike continued his ascension with 13.5 sacks for the Ravens in 2023, and the Ravens are not going lose the former third-round pick they developed. I could see a long-term deal getting done before March 5, but Madubuike will be tagged if not.
Bears CB Jaylon Johnson: YES
Considering the Bears opted not to trade Jaylon Johnson during the trade deadline last year, it would be crazy if they let him go as an unrestricted free agent. Johnson was just named a second-team All-Pro and will turn just 25 in April.
Patriots S Kyle Dugger: YES
The Patriots need all the talent they can get on the roster, and safety Kyle Dugger is worth keeping even at a high franchise tag cost of around $16 million. Dugger’s presence will help the New England defense remain a strength—which is huge with the offensive struggles.
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.: YES
Similarly, I believe the Colts will keep Michael Pittman Jr. on the tag if necessary simply because their receiving group would be in a very tough spot without him. Pittman had 109 receptions last season.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: NO
Tampa isn’t going to let their All-Pro safety test free agency, but that means—barring a long-term deal before March 5—their starting quarterback could hit the open market. The two sides will likely come to an agreement at some point, though.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: NO
Mike Evans is coming off one of his best seasons, but he already carries a dead cap hit of over $7 million on the Bucs’ books and is set to test free agency.
Chiefs DL Chris Jones: NO
The franchise tag salary for Chris Jones would exceed $30 million this season, and Kansas City probably intends to bring back the All-Pro on a two- or three-year deal instead.