It’s Super Bowl week, with the Chiefs and the Eagles facing off in the Big Game for the second time in three seasons. Kansas City has been a steady 1.5-point favorite for Super Bowl LIX according to the odds by FanDuel. This is a flip from the past two Super Bowls for the Chiefs, as they were underdogs last year versus the 49ers and two years ago against these same Eagles.
The AFC was seen as the tougher conference to get through this postseason, which might have something to do with Philly getting the points despite many seeing the Eagles as having the more talented roster. Also, since Championship Sunday, NFL news has been dominated by talk of officiating being in favor of the back-to-back defending champions. So—right or not—many at this point have decided to ride with the team that’s had breaks go their way.
With Super Bowl LIX fast approaching, these are some things to keep in mind for the final game of the season.
The head coach matchup
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni again have an opportunity to hoist the Lombardi Trophy after Reid did it a couple of years ago. Based on the history, perhaps Chiefs fans should be feeling good about the chances of a repeat performance. Four times head coaches have had a Super Bowl rematch: Chuck Noll vs. Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson vs. Marv Levi, Tom Coughlin vs. Bill Belichick, and Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan.
In each of those four instances, the coach that won the first matchup went on to win the second—including, as we saw last year, with Reid’s Chiefs (great with the extra week to prepare) beating the Niners again.
The Saquon factor
Of course, in this Super Bowl rematch, superstar running back Saquon Barkley—a massive steal by the Eagles in free agency after the Giants let him walk to the division rival—is now on Philadelphia’s side. Playing behind an elite offensive line, Barkley has an insane seven 60-yard touchdown runs this season, which is unsurprisingly an NFL record. If Barkley gets a crease, he’s gone. And not only his ability to score in an instant—but also the resources the Chiefs defense must bring to stop him—make him an obvious X-factor on Sunday as the Eagles look to have a repeat performance offensively when they scored 35 points in their recent Super Bowl loss.
Steve Spagnuolo delivers
Speaking of the Eagles offense led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, who had an outstanding performance in Super Bowl LVII, you can bet Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is letting his guys hear it all week and telling them they cannot let that happen again. Whether Kansas City has the pieces to slow down Hurts, Barkley, and a stacked group of receiving weapons headlined by two premier weapons in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith is another story, but the Chiefs are probably underrated on all three levels of the defense with the way they consistently perform at a high level as arguably the primary driving force behind back-to-back titles.
Spagnuolo is the only coordinator in NFL history to win four Super Bowls (one with the Giants, stunning the unbeaten Patriots in Super Bowl XLII). He gets the most out of his unit time of year.
Bets to consider
No one really knows how a given game is going to turn out, but a bunch of the receiving lines look low. Most notably, DeVonta Smith’s over/under receiving yards being set at 51.5 is very intriguing. Smith had 100 yards in the Big Game a couple of years ago, and Philadelphia might need to open up the passing attack if Kansas City tries to stuff the run. On the other side, JuJu Smith-Schuster at over 15.5 receiving yards could be a hit after he had catches for 31 yards and 29 yards last week—potentially gaining the trust of Patrick Mahomes at the right time and attacking Vic Fangio’s defense where it’s more vulnerable.
For more of a longshot, Hurts at +650 to score the first touchdown of the game stands out. If Philly gets the ball first, it’s easy to envision the drive ending with a Brotherly Shove. Also, both Hurts and Barkley ran for three touchdowns in the NFC title game. Hurts is +3400 to do that again on Sunday.