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AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Super Bowl LVIII Odds: 49ers Slightly Favored Over The Chiefs

Well over 100 million people will be tuned in this Sunday for the Big Game, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs matching up for the second time in five seasons. The 49ers are given favorable odds to win Super Bowl LVIII as two-point favorites over the AFC foe.


The 2023-2024 Super Bowl is headlined by star power on both sides, as evident by looking ahead to the odds for next year’s game. The Niners are the early favorites, and the Chiefs are ranked third behind only San Fran and Baltimore. The strength of each roster—even putting aside MVP-level quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy—is a big reason for that optimism moving past this year.


Niners All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey has been a touchdown machine since joining Kyle Shanahan’s offense ahead of last season’s trade deadline, and he has -220 odds to find paydirt in Super Bowl LVIII. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is the only other player with negative odds (-130) to score a touchdown.


George Kittle (+170) is arguably the best value among the “star” skill position players, and Mahomes himself could be intriguing at +370 (he ran for a touchdown in the previous Super Bowl win over the Niners). Brock Purdy, who showed the ability to use his legs in key spots in the NFC Championship Game win over the Lions, is +850 to score a non-passing touchdown. The defenses (San Francisco at +700 and Kansas City at +750) rank right in front of him.


Another notable aspect set by the oddsmakers is the over/under point total at 47.5 points, which is a bit of a surprise. The underrated Chiefs defense is likely the driving force, and perhaps the receiving group struggles for KC creep back in on the other side of the ball. 47.5 points is the lowest over/under total since Super Bowl 50 between the Panthers and the Broncos in 2016.


51 points were scored in Kansas City’s Super Bowl LIV victory over San Francisco, and the 47.5 total paired with the close game line indicates Vegas expects a tight game likely in the low twenties. But until last year’s 38-35 win over the Eagles by the Chiefs, the under had hit in the previous four Big Games—including in 2020 when the point total was set at 53.


Also, it’s been a rare sight in recent years for teams to cover the spread and not win the game. So those that believe Kansas City will cover the spread might be more willing to just place a Chiefs moneyline play at +110 odds instead of Kansas City to cover the spread at -115.


Finally, the Super Bowl LVIII MVP odds give clear advantages to the two quarterbacks, with Mahomes at +140 and Purdy at +200. Next up is McCaffrey at +440, but after him the odds plummets for Travis Kelce (+1700) and Deebo Samuel (+3300).


Overall, most agree these are two evenly matched, well-coached teams that should deliver an entertaining 60 minutes on February 11.