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Week 1 NFL Against-The-Spread Picks 2023

We made it! The 2023 NFL season begins tonight with the Lions facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and our weekly against-the-spread picks are back, too. The Week 1 edition is free for those looking to bet on NFL games, but sign up for Fantasy Consigliere to access ATS picks throughout the year. All odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.


Overall: 246-218-6 (53.0%)


Lions (+4.5) @ Chiefs

Betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is a risky proposition, but the Lions are a trendy selection to pull off the upset tonight—and for us, picking them to cover at +4.5 comes down to Travis Kelce looking doubtful (or at less than 100%) and Chris Jones still holding out. One concern to keep in mind is that the Chiefs starters got work during the preseason while the Lions did not, so we must hope Jared Goff and company do not come out rusty. There is plenty of info out there when looking to research and make picks, but this might come down to the Detroit offensive line being able to open up holes to at least keep this thing close versus a shorthanded Kansas City squad.


Jaguars (-4.5) @ Colts

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars might make a leap into that elite tier of AFC teams this season, and it could start in Week 1 facing a rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson) making his first career start without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Indy might just have trouble keeping up with a Jacksonville offense that adds Calvin Ridley to the mix.


Eagles (-4) @ Patriots

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones said they are going to be up against “a bunch of beats” on the defensive line of the Eagles, and Bill Belichick said it’s best pass rushing unit in the league. So, it’s going to be a major challenge for an offense that didn’t get much work during the preseason. New England’s defense can certainly step up to help keep things close, but will the Pats offense be able to move the ball enough behind an offensive line that might struggle in pass protection? We are using our heads with this one, as going with the heart could say that the Patriots pull off the upset after Tom Brady gets honored before the game.


Rams @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Rams are down All-Pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and the Seahawks are getting exciting first-round rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to boost their attack led by Geno Smith. Cam Akers and the ground game will likely need to be very good to stay within a handful of points on Sunday.


Bills (-2.5) @ Jets

It’s not a bad idea to take the points and go with underdogs early in the season especially. However, we went with five favorites to kick off the year, with the Bills (-2.5) on the road against the Jets rounding out the selections. Both teams figure to come out extremely fired up, but the Bills have a more coherent group led by Josh Allen compared to Aaron Rodgers’ first game with his new team. Remember, Tom Brady lost his first game with Tampa Bay back in 2020 while facing a divisional foe.


Full Picks

DET (-4.5) @ KC

SF @ PIT (+2.5)

CAR (+3.5) @ ATL

HOU @ BAL (-10)

CIN @ CLE (+2.5)

TB (+6) @ MIN

ARI (+7) @ WAS

TEN @ NO (-3)

JAX (-4.5) @ IND

PHI (-4) @ NE

LV (+4) @ DEN

LAR @ SEA (-5.5)

GB (+1.5) @ CHI

MIA @ LAC (-3)

DAL @ NYG (+3.5)

BUF (-2.5) @ NYJ