Last week: 4-1 | All-time: 208-170-6 (55.0%)

 

All lines via FOX Bet.

 

Steelers (+3.5) @ Browns

There are plenty of options this week, and Thursday Night Football games can always be tricky, so this might turn out to be foolish. Pittsburgh did not have a good showing on TNF last season, but Mike Tomlin’s teams are 20-6-2 against-the-spread in his career as a divisional underdog.

 

Ravens @ Patriots (+2.5)

Ravens-Patriots is a good AFC rivalry, and the two teams have split the two matchups with Lamar Jackson under center (2019 and 2020), with each team winning at home. New England has a strong defense and perhaps the same can’t be said for Baltimore after last week. The Pats are getting the points at Foxboro.

 

Bills (-6.5) @ Dolphins

The Dolphins look like a dangerous team, but the Bills have been on another level dating back to the end of last season. Sean McDermott’s Buffalo defense is getting a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks without even blitzing much at all (three blitzes this season), and Josh Allen has owned Miami throughout his career.

 

Lions (+5.5) @ Vikings

This is on the road in a tough Minnesota environment, but 5.5 points feels like too much in a game we don’t think many would have been shocked if the Lions were favored considering how good they’ve looked offensively. Look for Detroit to make this closer to a field goal game if they can’t pull off the upset.

 

Packers @ Buccaneers (-1.5)

There are a few more options we really like as recommendations this week, and it was very tempting to put the Eagles (-6.5) at Washington here. But with the way the Buccaneers defense has looked through two games—and now playing in their home opener versus a top contender in the NFC, which should have them amped up—Tampa Bay should be in consideration. Mike Evans (suspension, out), Chris Godwin (hamstring, likely out), and Julio Jones (knee) all might miss Sunday, but hopefully Julio can at least play; and Leonard Fournette and the run game paired with Tom Brady at quarterback and the defense can be enough to win by more than a point.

 

Full Picks

PIT (+3.5) @ CLE

BAL @ NE (+2.5)

BUF (-6.5) @ MIA

CIN (-5.5) @ NYJ

DET (+5.5) @ MIN

HOU (+2.5) @ CHI

KC @ IND (+5.5)

LV @ TEN (+1.5)

NO (-3) @ CAR

PHI (-6.5) @ WAS

JAX @ LAC (-7)

ATL (+1) @ SEA

GB @ TB (-1.5)

LAR @ ARI (+3.5)

SF (-1.5) @ DEN

DAL (+1) @ NYG