We recently shared our findings via an NFL Draft study that further cements Wolf Sports as having the best NFL Draft analysis available. (If we don’t say it in today’s world where merit seems to matter less and less, no one will.) Our latest YouTube video dives into the results of the study, which includes being highest on six of the eight leaders in wAV from each draft class since we started in 2017.
Statistically Impossible
Among the dozens of draft analysts out there, the chances of being highest on just a couple of these players over the past eight years is highly unlikely. To be highest on six of eight like we’ve been is astronomically unlikely—and virtually impossible (according to the numbers). Let’s say you’re comparing among 32 analysts. The odds for six of eight are one in 40 million!
Good thing no one told us how unlikely this is! “Never tell me the odds.”
The Players
As mentioned in last week’s article revealing the study, those eight players leading their draft class are:
2017: Patrick Mahomes (115 career wAV)
2018: Josh Allen (111 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
2019: A.J. Brown (73 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
2020: Jalen Hurts (79 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
2021: Micah Parsons (67 career wAV)
2022: Brock Purdy (44 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
2023: Jahmyr Gibbs (40 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
2024: Caleb Williams (26 career wAV) — Wolf Sports highest
We can call Williams a tie, with the NFL taking him No. 1 overall (and many media members agreeing he was the consensus No. 1 prospect). Either way, it’s over 70% of the time that Wolf Sports has been highest on the most valuable player from each draft class.
The Results
While we’ve always known and felt we had the most accurate NFL Draft analysis available, this information puts things into a new light. Wolf Sports won’t get much credit or praise as outsiders, but ignoring consensus and thinking for ourselves has led to truly insane, undeniable results.
Watch the full video on YouTube, and subscribe to Wolf Sports on YouTube for more content like this.