It’s July, and we’re another month closer to football season. Throughout this week, we’ll go over our dynasty league rankings for each position before an overall big board on Friday. Keep in mind, these are not real franchise quarterback rankings or redraft fantasy football rankings; these are dynasty league fantasy rankings (i.e. leagues that play all year round and keep the same rosters from year to year). Most of you play in traditional redraft leagues, and rankings for those will be available via Fantasy Consigliere later this summer.
1. Patrick Mahomes, KC (23)
No one really knows, but it feels like Tyreek Hill will remain a member of the Chiefs moving forward, which is good news for Patrick Mahomes’ long-term fantasy value. But even if Hill were to be suspended for a year, cut from Kansas City, or banned from the league, Mahomes is probably the best dynasty quarterback to own with or without the lightning-speed receiver on the roster. Mahomes’ head coach Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds in the league and is a football lifer that might not retire anytime soon, and there’s still plenty of help around the uber-talented third-year signal-caller. The 417.1 fantasy points Mahomes scored last season were the most of any quarterback in history.
2. Jared Goff, LAR (24)
Especially when left tackle Andrew Whitworth eventually retires, the Rams must ensure the offensive line remains an area of strength to put Jared Goff in a position to have success. Rams GM Les Snead should be able to do that, and—despite ignorant media narratives out there about Goff holding the Rams back—we know head coach Sean McVay wants Goff to be his quarterback for years. Goff has a young receiving corps—Robert Woods (27), Cooper Kupp (26), and Brandin Cooks (25)—that should be in their primes as their quarterback is in his, and a lack of weapons won’t be an issue. At the very least, Goff should be a steady QB1 for the next decade-plus, but he also has the upside for a Drew Brees-like statistical run, especially with the way the NFL has become more wide-open and easier on offenses.
3. Andrew Luck, IND (29)
Andrew Luck is the oldest quarterback in the top five and has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he’s now fully healthy and in a great position with an elite offensive line protecting him in Indianapolis. Luck appears to be playing smarter by taking less chances as a ball-carrier despite his athletic ability and physicality, but he’ll seemingly always be in the mix for 4,500+ passing yards and 35+ passing scores—with the upside to get into the 40s or 50s in touchdowns every season (he had 39 passing touchdowns in 2018 and 40 passing touchdowns in 2014). Aside from the offensive line, Indianapolis has long-term skill positions like Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, and Parris Campbell all surrounding Luck.
4. Josh Allen, BUF (23)
The start of last season was unsurprisingly a shaky start for Josh Allen on the stat sheet and as a fantasy quarterback, as the Bills arguably had the weakest supporting cast in the league. But when Allen returned from his elbow injury and got going from Weeks 12-17, he was sensational, putting up historic rushing performances. He had 99 yards (on 13 carries) against the Jaguars, 135 yards (on nine carries) against the Dolphins, and 101 yards (on nine carries) against the Jets in consecutive games from Weeks 12-15, and his fantasy point totals for the final six weeks were: 26.3, 28.7, 18.3, 19.8, 11.7, and 40.5. The rushing is probably unstainable, but there’s no question Allen has the talent to do plenty of damage as a runner. If Allen reaches his passing potential, he could be a perennial top-five finisher in fantasy scoring for quarterbacks.
5. Deshaun Watson, HOU (23)
He was inconsistent at times last season, but Deshaun Watson was still the No. 4 fantasy quarterback last season while coming off a torn ACL from his phenomenal injury-shortened rookie campaign—and he did that with a below average offensive line and a group of starting receivers that were in and out of the lineup with injuries all year aside from DeAndre Hopkins. Watson has shown he has the ability for 350+ yard passing games, and he can win weeks with his rushing upside. A couple of downsides with Watson are the durability (while playing behind Houston’s offensive line) and playing in a division with arguably the toughest defenses in the league.
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (34)
Last year’s No. 2 scoring fantasy quarterback, Matt Ryan is set up for success moving forward, with a stacked receiving corps mixed with veteran talent in their primes (Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu) and a younger dynamic playmaker (Calvin Ridley), an offensive line that added two first-rounders, and plenty of experience under-center that has helped greats like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger get better as they age. The former league MVP has probably seen just about everything a defense can throw at him at this point, and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter should be there for the long haul in his second stint with the Falcons. Matty Ice is a threat for 40 touchdowns with under ten interceptions every season.
7. Kyler Murray, ARI (22)
We understand if there are reservations about Kyler Murray’s size, but he can flat-out play, and he’s in an offensive system that should allow him to put up huge numbers if he can stay healthy and if the franchise is patient. If Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t work out, it wouldn’t necessarily mean Murray doesn’t work out—but he probably won’t put up the same fantasy point totals if Arizona moves to another offense. Still, for now, it’s difficult not to be bullish on Murray’s long-term fantasy potential as arguably the fastest quarterback in the league (and certainly the quickest) with a rocket for an arm. Murray has a future Hall of Famer in Larry Fitzgerald to help him acclimate to the NFL, along with a star running back (David Johnson) and three promising first- or second-year receivers (Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler).
8. Carson Wentz, PHI (26)
The Eagles are clearly putting franchise quarterback Carson Wentz in a position to have success and put up huge numbers to make a statement, and it won’t be surprising if he is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback over the next five seasons. But number one, health must cooperate, as Wentz has suffered season-ending injuries in each of the past two seasons and has durability concerns dating back to high school. Wentz arguably has more concerns about his durability than any quarterback in football, but quarterbacks that have had similar issues in the past have gotten over them and remained healthy (Matthew Stafford is the prime example). Despite entering his fourth NFL season, Wentz will already turn 27 at the end of this year, so other top cornerstone quarterbacks have a few years on him.
9. Russell Wilson, SEA (30)
Russell Wilson is traditionally a slow starter from a fantasy perspective, but he always finds a way to get his over the course of an entire season. One major plus to Wilson as he ages is that he’s arguably as deadly inside the pocket as he is scrambling around and making magnificent things happen on broken plays, so his goal of playing into his mid-40s (and at a high level) should be attainable; also, Seattle runs the ball well to help Wilson set up his exceptional play-action pass ability and hit big plays down the field to his cast of receivers. Wilson, who has 34+ passing touchdowns in three of his last four seasons, simply knows how to get the ball into the end zone.
10. Baker Mayfield, CLE (24)
Baker Mayfield has also shown he knows how to get the ball into the end zone, as he set an NFL rookie record for passing touchdowns in a season (27) in 14 games. Now, Mayfield adds Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt to a skill position group that already included Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, and Antonio Callaway. There are two primary concerns with Mayfield, which are part of why he’s down at No. 10 when he could certainly be up in the top five. One, there’s a chance the OBJ situation doesn’t work out, as Beckham might not want to play in Cleveland the rest of his career. And two, Mayfield might not be as good from a fantasy perspective as other guys—he can run, but he’s not going to pick up a ton of fantasy points on the ground, so he’ll need to be a top-notch passer to achieve top-five status, which is certainly possible but no certainty on a team that can run its offense through a powerful rushing attack.
11. Lamar Jackson, BAL (22)
With so many strong options behind him as dynasty quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson must improve as a passer to match these expectations in the No. 11 spot. However, Jackson’s upside as a runner is probably unmatched (Kyler Murray and Josh Allen might be close, though), as it won’t be a huge surprise if he hits 1,000 rushing yards in a season at some point. The Ravens might not want to put Jackson in harm’s way as much as they did last season, though, in which case it might be difficult for him to be consistent enough for top-ten scoring seasons at his position.
12. Dak Prescott, DAL (26)
Through his first three NFL seasons, Dak Prescott has fantasy quarterback finishes of QB6, QB10, QB10, so he’s shown he can stay durable and put up consistent scoring outputs from year to year. There were stretches where Prescott didn’t play well during that time, but he appears to have gotten over that hump last season (the acquisition of Amari Cooper was a huge help). And those slumps indicate Prescott has untapped upside to go along with his strong floor. The Cowboys are expected to open up their offense under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, which could lead to more opportunities for Prescott through the air, which will help him sustain success if and when his athleticism declines.
13. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (27)
Many people might have forgotten a bit about Jimmy Garoppolo after the Niners franchise quarterback tore his ACL early last season, but he’s an excellent player that has the benefit of being coached by Kyle Shanahan. Jimmy G looked to be trending towards a potential real-life and fantasy superstar after his arrival with the Niners and his play toward the end of 2017, and he still has the upside to be a steady fantasy quarterback that routinely finishes in the top ten most weeks and every season. San Francisco’s young wide receivers around All-Pro tight end George Kittle probably must step up immediately and then progress for Garoppolo to put up sizable passing totals in an offense with a plethora of running backs to utilize.
14. Aaron Rodgers, GB (35)
The injury history is part of why Aaron Rodgers is down at No. 14 among dynasty quarterbacks. Obviously, Rodgers can play extraordinarily well from inside the pocket, but he’s at his best when he can scramble out and make plays on the run with his golden arm—and he’ll be 36 by the end of this season. Also, the future Hall of Famer is adjusting to the first new offense of his career after the firing of longtime head coach Mike McCarthy, and that might not be easy to do after so much time in one system. Overall, Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, and he’s clearly good enough to still be in consideration among the top-five dynasty quarterbacks—but there’s risk.
15. Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (25)
Consistency was an issue during Mitchell Trubisky’s second NFL season last year, but remember, this is a player that had just one season as the starting quarterback at North Carolina. If Trubisky puts it all together, watch out. In 2018, he showed major glimpses as a potential fantasy star, with a four-game span of standard fantasy point totals of 43.5, 27.3, 31.4, and 21.9 from Weeks 4-8. Chicago might ultimately want their franchise quarterback to not rush as much so that he avoids injury, but Trubisky still would’ve had point totals of 38.2, 22.6, 17.3, and 16.8 in that four-week span if you take away every single rushing fantasy point.
16. Derek Carr, OAK (28)
This season is huge for Derek Carr in Oakland, but he’s shown he has the potential to be an MVP candidate and could get back to that form as he gains experience in Jon Gruden’s offense. If Carr is with the Raiders when they go to Vegas in 2020, several consecutive fantasy QB1 years are possible.
17. Cam Newton, CAR (30)
On a total points basis (not points per game), Cam Newton has finished as the QB3, QB4, QB3, QB17, QB1, QB17, QB2, and QB12, so the track record is outstanding. But there’s downside as Newton gets older and loses athleticism, and this new passing motion he’s transitioning to might not work out—if it does Newton could remain a great QB1 option by doing more damage through the air and less on the ground moving forward.
18. Marcus Mariota, TEN (25)
In terms of everything that’s going on around him, Marcus Mariota has probably had the toughest road of any starting quarterback in the league, with constant coaching changes and new offenses to adjust to. If he can settle in, Mariota is still just 25 years old and very talented. We could see Mariota landing someplace like New England as the heir to Tom Brady if Tennessee moves on, so that’s worth keeping in mind for your dynasty roster.
19. Sam Darnold, NYJ (22)
22-year-old Sam Darnold could certainly be a consistent QB1 fantasy option for 10-15 years, but he might be a better real-life quarterback than must-roster player. The arrival of Adam Gase with the Jets is a definite plus for Darnold, who must cut down on turnovers to be considered a top fantasy quarterback.
20. Tom Brady, NE (42)
The Patriots adjust more than any team in the league, but for right now, it doesn’t look like Tom Brady will remain an elite fantasy quarterback that puts up huge numbers every year. New England is moving toward the running game, and Brady simply might not get the volume for top-ten fantasy seasons.
21. Kirk Cousins, MIN (31)
Kirk Cousins finished as the 13th-best fantasy quarterback last season, and now the Vikings appear poised to run the ball more. This could lead to Cousins being better with less pressure on himself, but his upside moving forward doesn’t look as high as the other quarterbacks his age at the moment.
22. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (37)
Similarly, it’s possible the Steelers undergo a slight change on offense, as they might not be as pass-happy as they were at times with Antonio Brown at receiver. Ben Roethlisberger can still sling it 40 times in any given week, but he’s 37 years old and isn’t as exciting as other dynasty quarterback options.
23. Philip Rivers, LAC (37)
Philip Rivers has nine children, so he might not have much time left if he decides it’s time to retire and spend more time with his family; but for as long as he plays, he’ll be in the QB1 mix while commanding an offense that includes Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry.
24. Drew Brees, NO (40)
This will be an interesting season for Drew Brees, as he’s at the 40-year-old mark—it’s possible his play takes a noticeable dip. However, Brees is super committed, extremely smart, and is not someone that should be counted out. Still, there are so many options that we know will almost certainly be playing for another 5-10 years, while Brees is probably on a year-to-year basis.
25. Jameis Winston, TB (25)
If things work out between Jameis Winston and new Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians, Winston could potentially shoot all the way up toward the top ten among dynasty quarterbacks next offseason. Winston has turned the ball over a ton, though, and—considering previous off-field issues—he could very well be out of football entirely in 2020 if Arians isn’t able to get through to him.
26. Daniel Jones, NYG (22)
The Giants have a good plan in place for No. 6 pick Daniel Jones, and he could be a steady QB1 option whenever he takes over for Eli Manning in Pat Shurmur’s offense.
27. Dwayne Haskins, WAS (22)
The Redskins sound like they are truly impressed with their own first-round rookie quarterback, and Dwayne Haskins put up big-time numbers at Ohio State. Washington might be a run-based offense now, but that could change if Haskins lights it up as a passer.
28. Matthew Stafford, DET (31)
The Lions want to run the ball under head coach Matt Patricia, which limits Matthew Stafford’s fantasy upside. Stafford is a better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback right now.
29. Nick Foles, JAX (30)
Nick Foles is in a similar situation, as the Jaguars clearly want to run the ball. Also, Foles doesn’t have proven playmakers on the outside compared to other skill position groups around the NFL.
30. Andy Dalton, CIN (31)
Head coach Zac Taylor’s arrival in Cincinnati should help Andy Dalton, but the veteran quarterback could be facing a test year with the Bengals.
31. Joe Flacco, DEN (34)
Joe Flacco likely won’t put up big numbers in Denver, but he’s a Super Bowl MVP starting quarterback that’s played at his best in the biggest moments. Perhaps he’ll come out red-hot in 2019 and put up a QB1-caliber season.
32. Teddy Bridgewater, NO (26)
Taysom Hill should also be kept in mind, but Teddy Bridgewater is probably the Saints quarterback to hold on dynasty league rosters for the potential starter when Drew Brees retires. However, Bridgewater is another guy that’s a better real-life quarterback than fantasy asset.
33. Mason Rudolph, PIT (24)
Joshua Dobbs could be in the mix, but Mason Rudolph is our pick to eventually take over for Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a stable franchise that could provide an immediate QB1 fantasy option when Big Ben calls it a career.
34. Alex Smith, WAS (35)
We just need to hope Alex Smith is able to get healthy enough to get back on the field, and perhaps he’ll land in a surprising situation if and when he’s healthy enough to play again.
35. Josh Rosen, MIA (22)
Josh Rosen’s focus is winning the starting job for the Dolphins and playing well enough to convince the franchise the he should be the guy moving forward. However, it seems likely that Miami is focused on the top signal-callers in the 2020 draft.
Allen is a little high for my taste, but great read. I don’t even play dynasty. I like the draft too much.
Watson > Goff, Watson >>> Allen, Watson >>>>> Luck
I agree Rosen will be one and done in Miami.
I like these.
Full agreement on top 5 (not order but players)