Instead of the usual Thursday release of the best NFL survivor picks, we’re releasing them today so that you can get your locks in before Thanksgiving. If you made it to the holiday still alive in your pool, bravo.
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1. New England Patriots (@ Jets)
The Patriots don’t lose two games in a row often, and they already did once this season; so a loss coming off the bye against a 3-7 Jets team seems unlikely. New England is 12-2 in their last 14 games against the AFC East foe, and the two losses have come in overtime on the road. This one is on the road, but the Pats should take care of business.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Arizona)
Last week was tough, and the Chargers were among the teams that might have knocked people out of survivor pools after falling to Denver at home. The loss should ensure the Chargers do not look past the Cardinals, so they should be able to roll at home against a rookie quarterback on a two-win team.
3. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Oakland)
The top two options are preferable, but this isn’t a bad week to use the Ravens if you haven’t used them as a lock this season. They’re likely to still have a rookie quarterback (Lamar Jackson) under-center, but Jackson makes plays to keep the offense in positive positions. As long as the rookie avoids turnovers, the more-talented Ravens team should prevent the Raiders from winning two straight games.
4. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami)
There might be some concern with the Dolphins having extra time to prepare coming off the bye, and starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is back in the lineup after missing the last five games; but Andrew Luck and the Colts are as hot as any team in the league. Indy is getting ten points as they round out the top four teams for Week 12 survivor picks—all of which are double-digit favorites this weekend.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Denver)
The Steelers are just three-point favorites because they must travel to Mile High to face the Broncos. Denver is playing well, but Pittsburgh is rightfully favored to win with a big advantage at nearly every position on offense. But Von Miller and Bradley Chubb could make it interesting, which could give some pause to selecting the Steelers as a lock.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Giants)
The home magic of the Eagles has faded this season, as they are 2-3 at Lincoln Financial Field. They’re on a two-game losing streak while the Giants have won two straight games, but Philadelphia is a better team than their longtime rival. Depending on how the Redskins fare with Colt McCoy, this might be the best remaining matchup the Eagles have this season.
7. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta)
A team having its back against the wall should not be discounted, and the Falcons are in a pretty dire situation heading into tomorrow night’s Thanksgiving matchup with the Saints. The game is in New Orleans, the Saints have won nine straight, and the Falcons are decimated with injuries. Covering the big 13-point spread seems unlikely, but Sean Payton’s team is so good that they are a fine lock.
8. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington)
Three of the last four Thanksgivings have not gone well for the Cowboys, but their lone win came against the Redskins in 2016. Colt McCoy might step in and light it up for Washington, but Dallas and their stingy defense are a solid lock for Week 12. The Redskins won the first matchup, but the Cowboys have added Amari Cooper and are playing much better since then.