Playoffs: 6-4
Overall: 194-88
#6 WAS (14-5) @ #2 PHI (16-3)
Sunday, January 26 | 3:00 PM ET | FOX
Washington and Philadelphia matched up very closely in the regular season, as the Eagles won the first matchup, 26-18, with Saquon Barkley exploding late, while the Commanders took the Week 16 battle, 36-33, in a game that Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion. Since then, Washington has gained confidence, and former Eagles linebacker Seth Joyner recently saying the Commanders don’t have a chance and Jayden Daniels could be a “one-year wonder” will only be added motivation for an inspired bunch that is essentially playing with house money. Also, the absence of Nakobe Dean (knee) cannot be overrated, and Philly’s defense will be challenged by Brian Robinson Jr. running between the tackles with Daniels playing off that. The Eagles were an uncharacteristic DeVonta Smith drop away from sweeping the Commanders, though, and Daniels did throw what would have been a game-ending interception in the second matchup if not for the drop. Hurts’ health with a knee injury is the wild card, but A.J. Brown—who had an 8/97/1 line in Week 16—has been far too quiet this postseason (three receptions for 24 yards), and homefield advantage should be a major factor. If Dan Quinn’s defense decides to completely sell out versus the run after Barkley ripped them for a combined 296 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in the regular season, I think Hurts and his weapons will make them pay to remind everyone how good the passing attack can be and get Philadelphia back to the Super Bowl.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
#2 BUF (15-4) @ #1 KC (16-2)
Sunday, January 26 | 6:30 PM ET | CBS
Bills-Chiefs should give us another playoff classic, but it’s been all Kansas City with a 3-0 record against Buffalo in January when Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have matched up. Of course, it’s a team game, and Allen couldn’t do much more than he’s done in the past two meetings in particular—totaling 397 yards and four touchdowns in the infamous “13 seconds” loss, and then not getting the help he needed from his pass-catchers last year in a game that ended on a missed would-be game-tying field goal by Tyler Bass. This season, things do feel different for the Bills as a more complete team similar to how Kansas City has been throughout the Mahomes era, but I assume Allen will need to have a takeover performance to finally get past the Chiefs and end their quest for a three-peat. Officiating will be watched closely after it was a point of controversy yet again last week in Kansas City’s win over Houston, and I expect Arrowhead will be louder than ever knowing what’s at stake. For the Bills to come away with a win, Dalton Kincaid likely needs to have a big game versus a defense that has been vulnerable to opposing tight ends, and on the other side of the ball, they can’t let Travis Kelce get loose like he did against the Texans. My primary concern for Buffalo is them not pressuring Mahomes (or not bringing him down when they do get close), but Allen hasn’t taken sacks either, and the offensive line might be able to neutralize Chris Jones no matter where he lines up. Everything might end up going Kansas City’s way again, but I think this is the year for the Bills.
Winner: Buffalo Bills