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2024 NFL Game Picks: Divisional Round


Last week: 3-3

Overall: 191-87

 

#4 HOU (11-7) @ #1 KC (15-2)

Saturday, January 18 | 4:30 PM ET | ESPN/ABC

 

The regular season success positioned Kansas City to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls, but they know better than anyone that January is when the games truly matter—so the real quest begins on Saturday with the Texans coming to town. Houston’s defensive dominance versus the Chargers in the Wild Card Round has DeMeco Ryans’ squad looking like a more threatening opponent than they were entering the postseason, so pass protection for the Chiefs at the tackle spots will immediately be tested by Will Anderson Jr. (1.5 sacks last week) and Danielle Hunter. On the backend, the Texans are more confident than ever with Derek Stingley Jr. (coming off two interceptions of Justin Herbert) having an All-Pro season and rookie Kamari Lassiter (one interception against LA) turning into a star, but the Chiefs have a loaded collection of pass-catchers with Hollywood Brown in the lineup; the opposite is true for Houston after Diontae Johnson was released, and C.J. Stroud’s hope of having a trio of No. 1 receivers has been down to just Nico Collins since Tank Dell (leg) went down against Kansas City on Christmas, so it’s important for Joe Mixon and the running game to pick up where it left off last week (25 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown). Either way, I would expect the championship DNA of the Chiefs to win out over the intensity and sudden momentum generated by Houston.

 

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

 

#6 WAS (13-5) @ #1 DET (15-2)

Saturday, January 18 | 8:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Detroit has been a powerhouse this season (even with all the defensive injuries), but Washington will be a definite challenge on Saturday night—mainly due to Jayden Daniels having the ability to destroy opponents with his legs. Although we should anticipate defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will have some tricks up his sleeve, the Lions won’t get away from their heavy man coverage, which will naturally create opportunities for Daniels to run; even simple three- and four-yard gains can be extremely harmful when they pile up, so the defensive line must keep their rush-lane integrity to cage the dynamic rookie in the pocket. Fortunately for Detroit, they will have the offense at full strength with David Montgomery (knee) overcoming what was said to be a season-ending injury to be back for the playoffs, and even if he sees limited touches, “Knuckles” will help wear down the Commanders while making the speed of Jahmyr Gibbs even more deadly. One big thing to watch early on this weekend is how much the Lions target Marshon Lattimore, as the former Saint didn’t have the best game last week versus rival Mike Evans—so further draining his confidence (perhaps via a Jameson Williams deep shot) could make a shaky secondary more vulnerable. If Jared Goff plays like he did last postseason with zero turnovers, Detroit should be able to get back to the NFC Championship Game behind a fired-up crowd.

 

Winner: Detroit Lions

 

#4 LAR (11-7) @ #2 PHI (14-4)

Sunday, January 19 | 3:00 PM ET | NBC

 

Sean McVay clearly pushed the right buttons for the Rams by resting key players in Week 18, and the defense was flying around in the win over Minnesota by tying a playoff record with nine sacks. However, the Eagles will be a much tougher challenge on Sunday with perhaps the NFL’s best offensive line, a quarterback in Jalen Hurts that has proven to be a big-game performer, and the unmatched trio of Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith. In the first matchup, Philadelphia didn’t have Smith, Dallas Goedert, or Jordan Mailata on offense, but Barkley still couldn’t be stopped with 302 total yards—and I would be surprised if LA’s young defense was able to limit the Eagles. My concern for the home team is the absence of Nakobe Dean (knee), as the star linebacker helped tie everything together defensively, and Philly didn’t tackle very well after he went down last week; both Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua can shed multiple tacklers every time they have the ball in their hands, so maybe fifth-round pick Jeremiah Trotter Jr. will slide into the starting lineup alongside Zack Baun and be ready for the moment. The other factor to consider is the weather with snow in the forecast, and I think the Eagles are better equipped to handle it with Hurts’ legs potentially being the difference and Matthew Stafford not handling conditions well in the past.

 

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

 

#3 BAL (13-5) @ #2 BUF (14-4)

Sunday, January 19 | 6:30 PM ET | CBS

 

Ravens-Bills is the headliner of the Divisional Round, and it is being viewed as a legacy game with top MVP contenders Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen battling for a trip to the AFC Championship. Both quarterbacks from the 2018 draft class—notably viewed as top-10 overall prospects by Wolf Sports—are obviously young in their age-28 seasons, but you never know how many opportunities there will be in the future (especially in a loaded conference). That said, I don’t expect either signal-caller will press with Jackson showing he’ll run the ball early and often in the win over Pittsburgh and Allen already being one of the best postseason performers of all-time, but we’ll see if the weather plays a role with possible snow on top of wind chills approaching zero. It’s tough to predict whether the conditions would make Derrick Henry even more of an unstoppable freight train or benefit the Bills by slowing him down just enough for them to rally before he gets going, but either way, the Buffalo defensive line needs to come to play. The X-factor for me on Sunday is Ed Oliver, as he has just 2.0 sacks in 11 postseason games, though Baltimore might struggle with his quickness inside if matched up on six-foot-eight right guard Daniel Faalele (on the flip side, Oliver could be overpowered after King Henry had a season-high 199 rushing yards in the first matchup). Overall, it’s easy to imagine the story on Sunday night being the Bills missing on an opportunity to pursue Henry in the offseason, but Zay Flowers (knee) looking doubtful and Buffalo having standout defenders Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Taron Johnson in the rematch could give them enough of an edge at home for what should be a classic.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills