Regular season: 188-84
#5 LAC (11-6) @ #4 HOU (10-7)
Saturday, January 11 | 4:30 PM ET | CBS
Even dating back to before the Bill O’Brien era, the Texans always seem to slot into the early Saturday game to begin the Wild Card Round—and their outlook frankly seems similar to the days when quarterbacks like T.J. Yates and Brian Hoyer were making postseason starts. That is not to say Houston doesn’t have a chance to make a deep run, but it’ll take C.J. Stroud transforming into the guy we saw as in 2023 and the offensive line opening holes in the running game like they did to begin the season. Unfortunately, there has been no indication Stroud will be able to turn back the clock, and like last January when they couldn’t do much offensively in the Divisional Round loss to the Ravens, Houston is running into the NFL’s top scoring defense with the Chargers allowing 17.7 points per game. It’ll be very interesting to see how Los Angeles defends Nico Collins, but rookie Cam Hart has the size to match him (surely with a bunch of help), and injuries to Stefon Diggs (knee) and Tank Dell (knee) has Stroud’s supporting cast much weaker than he anticipated entering the season. Focusing on the Chargers, I have no doubt Justin Herbert will be extremely determined to get his first playoff win after the blown 27-0 lead to Jacksonville a couple of years ago, and the experience Jim Harbaugh has making deep playoff runs will have LA ready to go on the road.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
#6 PIT (10-7) @ #3 BAL (12-5)
Saturday, January 11 | 8:00 PM ET | Prime Video
Pittsburgh limps into the postseason having lost four consecutive games, and the way they’ve lost—with the offense being stagnant and the defense having uncharacteristic lapses leading to defenders pointing fingers—is obviously concerning. However, Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to go for a divisional clash versus a Baltimore team they split with in the regular season, and Zay Flowers (knee) looking unlikely to play makes the Ravens much easier to defend. Of course, the Steelers will still have to deal with Lamar Jackson’s deadly playmaking and rushing ability on top of the winter version of Derrick Henry (who has been waiting three years to get back into the postseason), but Flowers is a major piece whose absence makes Baltimore less complex and explosive on offense. If Pittsburgh is prepared to keep Jackson from ripping off chunk gains as a runner (and I think Tomlin will make it so that’s the case, as it has been in the past), they can certainly pull off a road upset; but George Pickens needs to be focused for the offense to have success, and maybe we’ll see Justin Fields get some snaps to provide a spark if needed.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
#7 DEN (10-7) @ #2 BUF (13-4)
Sunday, January 12 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
There are questions about Buffalo’s chances of making it out of the AFC based on the disappointments in previous years, and Denver is a very dangerous opponent with a confident quarterback, Super Bowl-winning head coach, and championship-level defense that regained their mojo last week (I know it was versus Kansas City’s backups). That said, the Bills have one of the best postseason performers of all-time in Josh Allen (21:4 touchdown-interception ratio and five rushing touchdowns in 10 games) and a team that has better chemistry than previous seasons—not to mention Sean McDermott’s defense allowing a 7:17 touchdown-interception ratio to rookie quarterbacks over the years. Also, Courtland Sutton is clearly the top weapon for the Broncos, and he might not have the best matchup versus the bigger cornerback duo of Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, so Denver needs to stick with the running game and keep Marvin Mims Jr. involved. Overall, I’m expecting a very close battle with Bo Nix capable of pulling off the upset after one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and much of the young offense perhaps not being phased by the stage after exceeding expectations, but Allen might be too difficult to stop as both a passer and runner.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
#7 GB (11-6) @ #2 PHI (14-3)
Sunday, January 12 | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
The first playoff matchup in the NFC is a repeat of the opening game for the conference with the Packers and Eagles having met in Brazil—a game Philadelphia won, 34-29, powered by three total touchdowns by Saquon Barkley in his team debut. Health of the quarterbacks is the big storyline at this point with Jordan Love (elbow) going down last week and Jalen Hurts (concussion) still progressing through the protocol, but both are expected to play. In general, Philly has a much-improved defense since Week 1 with everything coming together in Vic Fangio’s complex scheme, so Love simply must play better with Matt LaFleur almost certainly needing to open things up to have a shot after the Packers didn’t have any answers for Barkley (132 total yards and the three scores), A.J. Brown (5/119/1), and DeVonta Smith (7/84) in the opener. Christian Watson (knee) being done for the year will make Green Bay less threatening in terms of the vertical passing game to match the Eagles, but they can play through Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed while getting Josh Jacobs the ball in space if the Georgia-heavy defense limits the running game; I’m just skeptical about Love being able to carry the Packers to a road win in a hostile environment, and Hurts potentially being rusty can be covered up by Barkley and the supporting cast.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
#6 WAS (12-5) @ #3 TB (10-7)
Sunday, January 12 | 8:00 PM ET | NBC
Commanders-Buccaneers is another rematch of Week 1, and Tampa Bay comfortably played from ahead for the entire game in an eventual 37-20 victory that was led by Baker Mayfield completing 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns. Things have changed quite a bit for this matchup as well, though, as Chris Godwin (ankle) had an 8/83/1 line in the first meeting and is obviously out, while Mike Evans will now have to deal with longtime rival Marshon Lattimore after the midseason trade made by Washington. On the other side of the ball, Jayden Daniels immediately proved to be a force as a runner in his debut (16 carries for 88 yards and two touchdowns), and Tampa Bay’s scheme could allow the dynamic rookie to have another huge game on the ground; plus, the chemistry with Terry McLaurin has clicked since a slow start (10.1 yards per target and 13 touchdowns over the past 15 games), and the Commanders have bounced back from a three-game losing streak in November to win five straight heading into the playoffs. I believe the difference on Sunday night will be the Bucs’ rookie weapons with Bucky Irving (115.1 total yards per game over his past eight outings) and Jalen McMillan (seven touchdowns over the past five weeks) leading the way if Evans is contained.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#5 MIN (14-3) @ #4 LAR (10-7)
Monday, January 13 | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
Game No. 272 was a struggle for the Minnesota offense with Detroit consistently pressuring Sam Darnold and staying in the pocket of the wide receivers, so dropping down to the No. 5 seed creates a much more treacherous path for the Vikings. However, this is another game where the rematch could look quite a bit different, as despite the issues shown on Sunday night, Darnold has been a different quarterback since the middle of November with a 7-1 record and 18:2 touchdown-interception ratio, and the Rams don’t have the sticky cornerbacks that the Lions do. That means Los Angeles needs their collection of young talent on the defensive line to cause havoc to prevent Justin Jefferson from going off, and standout rookie safety Kamren Kinchens now being closer to a full-time player will be another change compared to the first matchup (when he played just 28% of the defensive snaps) as a playmaker who could bait Darnold into a mistake. The key to the game for Minnesota is finding a way to get to Matthew Stafford, as they didn’t sack him in the first meeting, and the Rams have very quietly not allowed Stafford to be sacked in any of his past four starts. If the veteran isn’t threatened by Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, we could see Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combine for a monster night that leads to another disappointing playoff exit for a franchise that has endured both heartbreak and blowouts throughout their postseason history.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams