Playoffs: 7-5
Overall: 195-89
KC v. PHI
Sunday, February 9 | 6:30 PM ET | FOX
The Chiefs are one win away from history by becoming the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era, but before them waits a familiar foe with the Eagles seeking vengeance for Super Bowl LVII—a controversial 38-35 victory for Kansas City that had late officiating drama (with the defensive hold on James Bradberry essentially handing the game to the Chiefs) and concerns about the playing surface (which slowed down Philly’s league-best pass rush).
Two years later, the headlining figures are mostly the same, but Kansas City has far more firepower with Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown at wide receiver, while the Eagles bring a retooled defense under Vic Fangio and a guy named Saquon Barkley on offense. Mainly, though, I expect Sunday will be about the quarterback play with whoever plays better out of Patrick Mahomes (career 17-3 playoff record with a 43:8 touchdown-interception ratio) and Jalen Hurts (374 total yards and four total touchdowns in Super Bowl LVII) likely coming out on top.
The offensive play style of the Chiefs is different than the one Fangio faced when he was head coach of the Broncos (and went 0-6 versus Patrick Mahomes), so I don’t think we can put too much stock into the history. Instead, the key for Philadelphia is getting off the field on third downs, as looking back at last February against the 49ers, Kansas City went 10-of-20 on third/fourth-down conversions. My main concern for the Eagles is them not having standout linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee) to tie the defense together, but Joe Thuney remaining at left tackle for the Chiefs is an interesting decision—as it gives Jalen Carter an easier matchup on the interior.
In coverage, Philly will need to rally to contain the speed/explosiveness of Worthy when he gets the ball underneath, and you can be sure Andy Reid will have some new stuff dialed up for the rookie. Similar to facing Jayden Daniels in the NFC Championship, every yard matters, so the Eagles must take good angles to the ball whether it’s Worthy, Travis Kelce, or someone else; and they must also rush Mahomes with integrity to prevent him from doing damage as a runner (combined 15 carries for 110 yards over the past two Super Bowl appearances).
In my opinion, Philadelphia—although they need to be prepared for the shake routes that worked against them in the second half of Super Bowl LVII—should be more aggressive trying to jump on shorter passes than they’ve been under Fangio. I frankly don’t expect that to happen because it goes against Fangio’s defensive philosophy (and it’s tough to argue against the results this year), but Mahomes going up and down the field with short completions would be draining, and the pass rush needs to be energized late.
For the ground games, it’s impossible to argue the Eagles don’t have the clear advantage with Barkley reaching his full potential behind a dominant offensive line to show why he was well worth the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are both angry runners that can churn out tough yardage and convert around the goal line, but Jordan Davis should have something to say about it—and Barkley completely transforms how Philadelphia’s offense needs to be defended.
If the Chiefs decide to sell out versus the run, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can make them pay like we saw a couple of years ago with Brown having a 6/96/1 line and Smith going for 100 yards. And again, Hurts has more than proven he’s a big-game quarterback with his performance in Super Bowl LVII, and the fumble that was recovered by Nick Bolton for a touchdown was really the only mistake in the shootout loss. Overall, the Eagles will be much more balanced and capable with Barkley replacing Miles Sanders—as the former starter left yardage on the field two years ago.
Of course, Kansas City has a dominant defensive lineman to worry about as well with Chris Jones surprisingly still seeking his first sack in a Super Bowl, and I would expect him to mostly stay stationed inside where he can take on Cam Jurgens (at less than 100% with a back injury) and the weak link—relatively speaking in a loaded group—Mekhi Becton at right guard. George Karlaftis is obviously another game-wrecker with 7.0 sacks in nine postseason games, and he’s never lost in the playoffs since being taken in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
As for the role players that could become Super Bowl heroes, I’ll have my eyes on
defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah for the Chiefs and wide receiver Jahan Dotson for the Eagles. Anudike-Uzomah has only played 12 combined defensive snaps in two postseason games this year, but he’s flashed his ability (including a sack versus the Texans); and while Dotson hasn’t been targeted since the Wild Card Round (when he caught a touchdown), Kansas City being attackable at cornerback behind Trent McDuffie could allow him to make an impact with a lot of attention on the stars for Philadelphia.
Unfortunately, officiating needs to be mentioned for the third Super Bowl in a row (last year, I brought it up and we all watched the Chiefs get away with holding on Nick Bosa), and Nick Sirianni should be vocal about what he’s seeing from the sideline. Still, the firepower is there for Philadelphia to overcome some things going against them, and Sunday will be decided by quarterback play, the turnover battle, and whether the rookie cornerbacks of the Eagles can hold up against the magic of Reid and Mahomes.
Eagles 29 – Chiefs 27