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Home / frontnfl / 2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 11
Gracie Farrall/Buffalo Bills

2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 11


Last week: 9-5

Season: 98-54

 

WAS (7-3) @ PHI (7-2)

Thursday, November 14 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video

 

First place in the NFC East is on the line to begin Week 11, and tonight should be an intense battle between an upstart Washington squad led by Jayden Daniels and a veteran Philadelphia team—with youth infused on defense—that has been excellent on both sides of the ball during a five-game winning streak. As stated last week, I still have questions about how legitimate of a contender the Commanders are, and losing twice in five days would be an obvious blow to their outlook in the NFC. Washington being able to methodically move the ball with between-the-tackle runs by Brian Robinson Jr. and converting third downs when needed through the air is the key to keeping Jalen Hurts off the field, so Jordan Davis could be the X-factor for Philadelphia. I’m also interested in how often the Commanders will attack rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell with their quick-strike passing game, but it’s easy to imagine the first-rounder jumping a route for his first career interception on a game-changing or game-sealing play. With no Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) for Washington, all three of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and former No. 16 overall pick Jahan Dotson (against his former team) could do major downfield damage if Hurts has time to uncork the deep ball.

 

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

 

GB (6-3) @ CHI (4-5)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Caleb Williams only having one interception over his past six games despite Chicago’s offensive collapse is a possible sign that he’s lost confidence and is hesitant to let it rip—which is very worrisome scenario and creates concern about the bad habits I’ve discussed being developed due to the situation he’s in. We’ll see if the firing of offensive Shane Waldron can get Williams back on track, but the issues run much deeper than the play-caller, and the offensive line will be tested versus a very aggressive Green Bay defense this weekend. Looking beyond this week when he won’t have to face Jaire Alexander, DJ Moore getting more downfield shots should be a priority under new OC Thomas Brown, but I’m still wondering why Darnell Mooney wasn’t re-signed as a homegrown talent with high work ethic and intelligence. If Chicago doesn’t play better on defense than they did versus Jordan Love last season (280.5 yards per game and a 5:0 touchdown-interception ratio allowed), things could get ugly.

 

Winner: Green Bay Packers

 

JAX (2-8) @ DET (8-1)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

The production for Mac Jones last week obviously wasn’t great (14-of-22 for 111 yards and two interceptions), but his accuracy was on display for those who look beyond the numbers, and Minnesota isn’t an easy defense to face by any means. Unfortunately for Jones, the Lions are another challenging opponent that could be suffocating in man coverage, and Jacksonville needs to do a better job getting Travis Etienne Jr. the ball in space as their most explosive weapon—as three receptions for five scoreless yards in two games since his return isn’t close to good enough. Defensively, the Jags at least competed last week by holding up in scoring territory and forcing three interceptions from Sam Darnold, but I doubt Detroit will have much trouble finishing drives, and Amon-Ra St. Brown should be primed for a huge day considering some of Jacksonville’s issues defending between the numbers.

 

Winner: Detroit Lions

 

LV (2-7) @ MIA (3-6)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Las Vegas has hopes that turning the offense over to Scott Turner (with his father Norv Turner brought in as senior advisor) will have them operating at a higher level coming out of the bye—but unlike the situation in Chicago, the disappointment for the Raiders has been more about the quarterback and overall offensive talent than anything else. While former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wasn’t great, he seems to have been scapegoated for Las Vegas misplaying the quarterback landscape in the offseason, and a slow start this week could create more questions for the Silver and Black. Next year, the Raiders simply have to find the right quarterback (I’m convinced it’ll be Shedeur Sanders) and stockpile offensive talent around him at running back and wide receiver to match Brock Bowers, but this week, the discrepancy between the weaponry compared to Miami will be apparent—especially if Maxx Crosby can’t get to Tua Tagovailoa and the linebackers can’t match De’Von Achane’s speed.

 

Winner: Miami Dolphins

 

LAR (4-5) @ NE (3-7)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The Rams are coming off a frustrating loss to the Dolphins where they couldn’t get the ball into the end zone and were forced to settle for five field goals, but I’d expect a very focused team heading into New England. On offense, Kyren Williams only handling 15 carries last week is probably something Sean McVay regrets, so I’d anticipate a heavier workload for him in the second game of the interior offensive line being back together (the trio of Steve Avila, Jonah Jackson, and Kevin Dotson weren’t at their best in Week 10). If Los Angeles can jump out to an early lead and keep their foot on the gas, I’d be worried about Drake Maye facing a barrage of pressure versus a young defense that dominated Seattle a couple of weeks ago with seven sacks and played well again—mainly versus the run—against the Dolphins on Monday night. After he intercepted him a couple of years ago in college, keep an eye on standout rookie safety Kamren Kinchens trying to get a read on a Maye throw at some point this weekend.

 

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

 

CLE (2-7) @ NO (3-7)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

There are too many teams ahead of New Orleans in the standings to make a serious playoff push barring an eight-game winning streak (including last week in the first game under interim head coach Darren Rizzi), but the team has gone 3-4 with Derek Carr under center—with competitive losses to the Eagles, Falcons, and Chiefs before falling to the Panthers to begin November. I guess that says more about Carr (who was playing with a chip on his shoulder last week due to noise from outside the building) than it does the state of the Saints, but the team has notably been competent with their starting quarterback healthy. The priority this week needs to be stopping the run with Nick Chubb refreshed following a bye, and the New Orleans defense didn’t do a good job stopping Bijan Robinson (20 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns) despite the win over Atlanta. Uncertainty about which version of Jameis Winston the Browns will get has me leaning towards the Saints at home.

 

Winner: New Orleans Saints

 

BAL (7-3) @ PIT (7-2)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Pittsburgh is arguably the most interesting team in football heading into the final eight weeks of the season, as their schedule is comprised of all AFC North games with the “breaks” coming versus the Eagles and Chiefs—so almost every matchup will feel like a playoff game. I’m guessing Mike Tomlin welcomes the gauntlet to have the most battle-tested group possible heading into the postseason, and turning to Russell Wilson last month (a controversial decision with Justin Fields being 4-2 and coming off a 32-13 win over the Raiders) gives the Steelers a better chance to go toe-to-toe when a shootout occurs. The history of success for Pittsburgh defending Lamar Jackson could make Sunday a slugfest despite the play of both offenses and quarterbacks this year, but a game like we saw last week between the Steelers and Commanders feels more likely; if so, Baltimore needs to hope the few extra days to prepare can fix some issues on the backend trying to defend the vertical duo of George Pickens and Mike Williams, but Jackson having support from Derrick Henry and more weapons than ever could allow them to get a close win.

 

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

MIN (7-2) @ TEN (2-7)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

The return of Will Levis last week started strong (with a 41-yard touchdown to Calvin Ridley) and ended well with another score to Tennessee’s top wideout, but the second-year quarterback absorbed far too many sacks in between—and the offense won’t be successful if he doesn’t get rid of the ball. Although taking sacks isn’t a flaw unique to Levis when it comes to young passers, he appears to be oblivious to pressure, and that could be a recipe for disaster ahead of matchups versus the pressure-heavy Vikings and Texans over the next two weeks. On defense, the Titans will be without top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (quad) for the fifth consecutive game, so this weekend feels like a spot where Justin Jefferson might totally go off with 150+ yards and multiple scores to break a three-game touchdown drought. Of course, Minnesota could dial back the passing attack in an effort to rebuild Sam Darnold’s confidence following his worst game of the season, but either way, the advantage is clear on both sides of the ball.

 

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

 

IND (4-6) @ NYJ (3-7)

Sunday, November 17 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

The Jets couldn’t afford any slip ups after pulling out a win over the Texans on Halloween, but they immediately collapsed with a 31-6 loss to Arizona—allowing a touchdown on the opening drive and never really being in the game. While there is no denying Aaron Rodgers needs to play better and a lot of the struggles fall on him as the leader of the team, defense is the bigger concern, and you know the season isn’t going well when the interim head coach needs to show a presentation on tackling (which Jeff Ulbrich did this week). Indianapolis will be an ideal test to find out if the message was sent as the defense needs to bring down Jonathan Taylor and the reinstalled starting quarterback in Anthony Richardson—who I hope will be unleashed on the ground with more designed runs. Still, New York gets one more chance assuming Davante Adams (wrist/illness) is good to go, as he’s roasted Gus Bradley’s defense over the past three meetings, including a 13/126/2 line last season on New Year’s Eve.

 

Winner: New York Jets

 

ATL (6-4) @ DEN (5-5)

Sunday, November 17 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

 

Denver suffered one of my most heartbreaking losses imaginable last week with a chance to end the Chiefs’ undefeated season, but the play of Bo Nix—who went 22-of-30 for 215 yards and two touchdowns while putting the Broncos in position to win on the final play—was extremely encouraging. Nix is in early-career Josh Allen territory in terms of the overwhelming hate for him as a prospect causing the same media members who missed on him to shield themselves from the undeniable promise shown (and these are the people who vote on awards?), but Nix’s peers know, including Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce both being effusive in their praise for the rookie. Atlanta is a dangerous opponent coming off a loss of their own—and perhaps the Broncos will be a bit deflated based on how last week ended—but Sean Payton’s team is still in position for a playoff spot entering Week 11 and have the mentality on both sides of the ball to make sure it stays that way.

 

Winner: Denver Broncos

 

SEA (4-5) @ SF (5-4)

Sunday, November 17 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

 

San Francisco was able to survive last week in Tampa Bay with Brock Purdy throwing for 353 yards and two touchdowns, and the best news other than the win was Christian McCaffrey coming through unscathed in his season debut on 88% of the offensive snaps played. The main offensive issue for the 49ers right now is the lack of success in scoring territory (one touchdown on three trips last week), but I remain optimistic that things will improve as McCaffrey becomes even more of a factor. On the other side of the ball, it’s the consistency of the front seven that could hold back San Francisco against top teams like Detroit and Philadelphia, but the defense proved it could bottle up Kenneth Walker III in the first matchup this season (14 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown), and they were clearly selling out to stop the run with Seattle—perhaps foolishly—broadcasting their intent to establish the ground game. Remember, DK Metcalf was close to a monster game with multiple oddities preventing some big plays (including a long touchdown) in last month’s meeting, so I’ll be intrigued by how the Seahawks attack (and are defended) with Charvarius Ward (personal) likely out again for the Niners.

 

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

 

KC (9-0) @ BUF (8-2)

Sunday, November 17 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

 

Chiefs-Bills has game-of-the-year potential every time they face off, and the lack of playoff success for Buffalo (0-3) overshadows the fact that they’ve won three consecutive years in the regular season. Not that it takes any of the pain away from the January losses, but this is far from a one-sided rivalry with Josh Allen proving time and time again that he can match Patrick Mahomes—and it’s the overall championship DNA for Kansas City that has been the difference between the two sides when it matters most. If we get another rematch in a couple of months, the Bills might need to be at full strength defensively with Matt Milano (biceps) back by then and everyone staying healthy to win without Allen needing to play a perfect game, and a victory this weekend to keep the door open for homefield advantage is crucial for Buffalo. The status of Dalton Kincaid (knee) needs to be monitored, but if Sean McDermott’s defense can mimic the rush-lane integrity that Denver showed last week, I’ll like their chances this week and if they meet again in January.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills

 

CIN (4-6) @ LAC (6-3)

Sunday, November 17 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

 

The Bengals were unable to stop Baltimore last week in a loss that leaves them almost no wiggle room in the wild card race (Joe Burrow even said a couple of weeks ago that they could probably lose just one more game, which occurred last Thursday night), but this week presents an opportunity to pull closer to the Chargers. In the only other matchup between Burrow and Justin Herbert as two of the stars in the 2020 draft class, Cincinnati ended up getting blown out, 41-22, but it was a close game into the fourth quarter; and not that he needs any added motivation in win-or-die mode, but Burrow surely remembers the loss where he had three turnovers and Justin Herbert threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns (one interception). Although an advantage for Los Angeles in the trenches and Cincinnati perhaps being unable to slow down the running game or cover Ladd McConkey has me worried for the Bengals, I’m going with them as the more desperate team, and SoFi Stadium isn’t a feared environment.

 

Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

 

HOU (6-4) @ DAL (3-6)

Monday, November 18 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2

 

Houston has plenty of breathing room in the AFC South and will get Nico Collins (hamstring) back on Monday night to turn things around offensively, but C.J. Stroud had to lose some sleep after the missed opportunities in the loss to Detroit—and his play for most of this season hasn’t come close to matching what he did as a rookie. In particular, the downfield shots haven’t been there at the same frequency, and that’s despite the running game being improved significantly with Joe Mixon in the backfield. Struggles for the Texans don’t compare to the disappointment in Dallas, though, and having Micah Parsons in the lineup last week was only a temporary boost before the talent of the Eagles started taking over. The formula for an upset with Cooper Rush under center is playing through CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle, but DaRon Bland (foot) not sounding close to a debut keeps the star trio of him, Parsons, and Trevon Diggs from being complete for a team that needs to be powered by the defense.

 

Winner: Houston Texans