Season: 10-4
PIT (8-2) @ CLE (2-8)
Thursday, November 21 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Tonight feels like the prototypical trap game for Pittsburgh, as it’s a short week coming off a draining win over Baltimore—and the Browns have played the Steelers tough, including a 4-1 record at home over the past five years. Plus, cold and rainy conditions are in the forecast to perhaps create even more of an even playing field, and Nick Chubb (who only handled 11 touches last week) could have some extra motivation in the first matchup against Pittsburgh since last September’s season-ending knee injury. In general, Cleveland should play through Chubb and David Njoku more than usual, and I wouldn’t want Jameis Winston to test Joey Porter Jr. much; even if the second-year cornerback doesn’t hunt for interceptions, his shutdown coverage could put the Browns behind the sticks on early-down throws and prevent conversions to stall drives. The key for the Pittsburgh offense is to avoid sacks, but Myles Garrett has been unable to take down the quarterback in four of his past five games, and Russell Wilson only absorbed one sack last year when Denver handled the Browns, 29-12, in a game that also happen to come in Week 12.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
KC (9-1) @ CAR (3-7)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Chiefs saw their quest for an undefeated season end last week in Buffalo, but the three-peat is obviously the goal—and I’d argue a loss takes the pressure off them because of how many close games they’ve played. While there is something to be said about the championship DNA continuing to be built with nail-biting wins, you have to believe things would go against them in a close game at some point, and it’s better now than in January. This week, Kansas City needs to be prepared to stop the run versus a Carolina team that wants to control the ball and will get talented rookie Jonathon Brooks (knee) in the lineup for the first time alongside Chuba Hubbard, and Bryce Young has built momentum with back-to-back wins prior to the bye. The Chiefs could get reinforcements of their own if Isiah Pacheco (leg) returns, though, and the Panthers have the worst run defense in the league (160.1 yards per game allowed). Look for Pacheco and/or Kareem Hunt to consistently churn out positive yardage and for Travis Kelce to be more involved after being limited to two receptions for eight yards in the loss to the Bills.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
MIN (8-2) @ CHI (4-6)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Chicago has dropped four consecutive games since a 4-2 start, but last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Packers was at least encouraging for Caleb Williams’ development—as he played more decisively to get the ball out of his hands, appeared more comfortable on the move, and made plays as a runner when needed with nine carries for 70 yards. Still, it’s odd that Williams has not thrown a touchdown or interception during the four-game losing streak, and I want to see him cut it loose from the pocket, which could be necessary this weekend with the Vikings bringing various pressure packages that he might need to beat purely with his arm. If so, DJ Moore getting a downfield shot or two in single coverage is the next step to build on what Williams showed versus Green Bay, and Minnesota needs to be wary about leaving Moore on an island underneath as well based on his ability to break a tackle and get into open space. That said, the Vikings will get a monster game from Justin Jefferson eventually, and the Bears have allowed him to go for 104+ receiving yards in four-of-five healthy meetings—so look for the all-world wideout to make up for lost time after missing both 2023 matchups.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
TEN (2-8) @ HOU (7-4)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Titans head coach Brian Callahan has expressed optimism about the play of Will Levis with the caveat that they need him to get rid of the ball faster—but it’s an issue that has been very clear since he was at Kentucky and really holds the Tennessee offense back. Last year, Levis absorbed seven sacks in the first loss to Houston and then followed it up by going down on a strip sack touchdown early in the second meeting, so getting the ball out of his hands must be a priority to avoid disaster on Sunday. The Texans haven’t quite played up to their standard on either side of the ball in recent weeks, but Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) is set to return, and Danielle Hunter has heated up with 6.0 sacks over the past six games. I’m more concerned about the offense at this point, and C.J. Stroud will need to get back to his rookie form if they are going to make a run in the AFC; having Nico Collins back helps, and he should be closer to a full-time role after just 47% of the snaps played on Monday night.
Winner: Houston Texans
DET (9-1) @ IND (5-6)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Colts picked up a huge win over the Jets last week, and with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, the formula is there for them to at least made it a game versus an undeniable powerhouse Detroit team. That said, it’s imperative that the offensive line opens more holes for Jonathan Taylor (24 carries for 57 yards last week and zero touchdowns over the past three games) to have a chance, and fumbles (eight this season) have been a bigger issue for Richardson than interceptions (seven). The hope for Indy is that the second-year quarterback’s game-winning drive to beat the Jets unlocks confidence to have the flashes become more routine, and the amount of man coverage played by the Lions could allow Richardson to do major damage as a runner this week. However, slowing down Detroit enough to have a chance in the fourth quarter is the challenge, and Jared Goff will dice up any defense that is unable to generate pressure—so rookie Laiatu Latu (three quarterback hits last week) and the rest of the defensive line needs to create havoc at home.
Winner: Detroit Lions
NE (3-8) @ MIA (4-6)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Patriots fans expressed heavy displeasure with Drake Maye not starting the first matchup versus the Dolphins (a 15-10 loss), but he’s shown well in six games since becoming the starter—and we should anticipate a higher-scoring rematch with Tua Tagovailoa under center for Miami. Still, both sides will likely play through the running backs, and New England needs to feed Rhamondre Stevenson (12 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown in Week 5), while the Dolphins should continue featuring De’Von Achane after he left the first matchup early and both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright rushed for 80+ yards. When the offenses do air it out, Miami may simply have too much firepower, and the Pats struggled to contain Cooper Kupp (6/106/2) and Puka Nacua (7/123/1) last week; also, I thought Kyren Williams uncharacteristically missed a couple of running lanes for would-be chunk gains, so Jerod Mayo’s defense needs to get that fixed to prevent Achane from exploding.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
TB (4-6) @ NYG (2-8)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The benching of Daniel Jones is one of the big storylines of this week, and the situation deserves nuance that we don’t get in the media or on X—but the former No. 6 overall pick was great as a rookie and obviously hasn’t been the same player since season-ending neck and knee injuries. Jones at least gave 100% every time he hit the field, which is why there have been multiple stories this week about the locker room disagreeing with the decision, including New York’s best player in Dexter Lawrence II putting his name on comments calling Jones “the best quarterback on the team.” In addition to the injuries, a sub-par offensive line for his entire career seemed to force Jones to become trigger shy (which certainly wasn’t the case to begin his career when he was basically a streaky gunslinger), so Giants ownership needs to decide if general manager Joe Schoen is the right person to pick the next quarterback; Hard Knocks gave us a unique look inside the building, and for the staff to not even mention Bo Nix among the top quarterbacks and a potential option at No. 6 is another strike against the current regime. We’ll see how the team responds to the quarterback switch starting this week with the Bucs coming to town.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DAL (3-7) @ WAS (7-4)
Sunday, November 24 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Although I don’t quite understand the Cowboys trading a fourth-round pick for Trey Lance last year if they aren’t going to play him, Mike McCarthy’s desire to focus on winning games should be commended, so it’ll be another week of Cooper Rush—who is coming off a career-high 354 passing yards in the loss to Houston. As stated last week, Dallas not having DaRon Bland (foot) to pair with Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs prevents the defense from being able to power the team to wins, but it sounds like the 2023 interceptions leader could be back after a full practice to begin the week. If that’s the case, Washington will need pass-catchers other than Terry McLaurin to step up with the Cowboys limiting him to 39.2 receiving yards per game and one touchdown over the past six meetings; but for the most part, Brian Robinson Jr. being fed is the best way to avoid an upset that would suddenly put the Commanders’ playoff hopes in serious peril despite a 7-2 start.
Winner: Washington Commanders
DEN (6-5) @ LV (2-8)
Sunday, November 24 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Bo Nix landed in the perfect spot with Sean Payton to have on-field success at the NFL level, but in addition to that, Denver having perhaps the most loyal fanbase in the league has helped shape the narrative about how good the rookie has been—or at least pushed back on alleged analysts saying things like Nix is “cosplaying in the pocket” or the general manager who drafts him in Round 1 “should be fired and arrested” (real statements made by a draft “experts”). If anyone watched Nix last week and isn’t sold, it’s clearly based on pre-draft bias not unlike what happened with Josh Allen for the first three years of his career. There will be more growing pains for Nix, but Las Vegas is a team that could have traded up for him—and the Silver and Black potentially looking ahead to their “Super Bowl” for the Black Friday showdown versus the Chiefs could allow Denver to keep rolling after blowing out the Falcons, 38-6, and handling the Raiders in the first meeting, 34-18.
Winner: Denver Broncos
SF (5-5) @ GB (7-3)
Sunday, November 24 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
A rematch of January’s thriller in the Divisional Round, 49ers-Packers should be an intense battle with San Francisco trying to keep pace in the NFC West and Green Bay feeling they let the playoff loss slip away with a late blown lead followed by a Jordan Love interception with a chance to tie the game or win with a minute left. There will be new faces on both sides with Josh Jacobs adding a physical element to the rushing attack for the Packers and the Niners having a youth infusion in the secondary, but I think we’ll get a very similar game, and it’ll come down to quarterback play. Brock Purdy is dealing with a sore shoulder, and Love was interestingly reined in with just 17 pass attempts last week in a near loss to Chicago, but I’m expecting both to show well—especially if the pass rushes don’t come alive (including for the Niners with Nick Bosa out or less than 100% with a hip/oblique injury). Green Bay showing the same kind of commitment to slowing down Christian McCaffrey that Seattle did last week could give the edge to the Packers at Lambeau Field, but Kyle Shanahan’s squad is more desperate for a win. [Update: with Brock Purdy out, the pick has been changed to the Packers.]
Winner: Green Bay Packers
ARI (6-4) @ SEA (5-5)
Sunday, November 24 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
One of the reasons the 49ers are so desperate is because they have a 1-3 divisional record in an extremely tight NFC West race, and Arizona exits their bye week in the driver’s seat as the only team without a loss in the division (2-0). To me, the Cardinals are sort of like the NFC version of the Broncos with a clear culture established that helps overcome a lack of top-tier talent on the roster—and Jonathan Gannon has struck the right message with his team since he took the job. Seattle enters the Week 12 game with confidence after defeating the Niners, though, and Gannon’s defense needs to come prepared versus Kenneth Walker III (110+ total yards in three-of-four career meetings) and a quarterback in Geno Smith that has shown a much better connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba over the past two games (lines of 7/180/2 and 10/110). The emergence of JSN might force the Cardinals to roll coverage away from DK Metcalf (10 scoreless yards in the lone matchup last season to extend his longstanding struggles versus Arizona), and I’ll say homefield advantage outweighs the bye week advantage.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
PHI (8-2) @ LAR (5-5)
Sunday, November 24 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Struggles for the Eagles are a thing of the past with six consecutive wins since a 2-2 start, and the overwhelming talent has proven too much for most opponents—with the offense having too many weapons with Saquon Barkley in the mix and the defense having young stars at all three levels. For this week, I’m anticipating a monster game from A.J. Brown (six receptions for 127 yards last year in Los Angeles), and the only hope for the Rams is for their own emerging defenders making impact plays—but I just get the feeling Brown’s size/physicality will be a mismatch versus a smaller cornerback group. The counter would be to have standout rookie safety Kamren Kinchens (who has won NFC Defensive Player of the Week twice this month) ready to jump any deeper in-breaking routes to Brown, so Jalen Hurts can’t force the ball to Brown. Defensively, the Eagles will be tested on the backend by Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but LA has been forced to shuffle things on the offensive line with Jonah Jackson benched despite signing a three-year, $51-million deal in the offseason, and Jalen Carter could have a takeover performance on Sunday Night Football.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
BAL (7-4) @ LAC (7-3)
Monday, November 25 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
John and Jim Harbaugh have faced off twice in their careers, and Baltimore has come out on top both times—with Super Bowl XLVII being the most recent meeting, and the other being in 2011 on Thanksgiving Night. So, it’s cool the first regular season matchup in 13 years will take place a few days before Thanksgiving, but the Harbaugh brothers squaring off shouldn’t overshadow how good of a game Ravens-Chargers should be between two teams with legitimate championship aspirations. A significant factor for how far Los Angeles can go is whether top cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (shoulder) returns this season, and for Baltimore, the success of Justin Tucker is the wild card in addition to usual questions about Lamar Jackson in the postseason (which I believe will be helped by the presence of Derrick Henry). On Monday night, the Ravens are likely to be without Roquan Smith (hamstring), but the running game should have more luck playing through Henry—and they’ll hope Tucker believing there is a “pretty clear” adjustment he needs to make turns out to be the case.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens