Season: 118-61
CHI (4-7) @ DET (10-1)
Thursday, November 28 | 12:30 PM ET | CBS
The Lions continued to roll with a 24-6 win over the Colts last week, and it was their defense—even without standout rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold (groin)—that led the way by not allowing a touchdown for the second game in a row. Last year, Chicago gave the Lions as much trouble as almost any opponent with a season split that included Jared Goff throwing five interceptions, but I would anticipate more balance this season with David Montgomery (6.5 YPC) and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.4 YPC) both thriving on their touches versus the Bears; and Chicago isn’t playing at the level they were in 2023 anyway. In general, a Super Bowl is clearly the goal for Detroit, but disappointment on Thanksgiving is surely something Dan Campbell will be discussing as an obstacle they can overcome with a seven-game losing streak on the holiday. If the Lions can keep Caleb Williams in the pocket and prevent DJ Moore from exploding (106.2 receiving yards per game in five career matchups), I like Detroit to overcome the Turkey Day struggles and improve to 11-1.
Winner: Detroit Lions
NYG (2-9) @ DAL (4-7)
Thursday, November 28 | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
The answer to how the Giants would respond to benching and release of Daniel Jones was obviously not well, and Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Buccaneers combined with post-game comments by the players—including stars Malik Nabers, Dexter Lawrence II, and Brian Burns—suggest it’s only a matter of time before more changes are made in New York. For the analytical-minded people who say running backs aren’t worth the money, look at what Saquon Barkley is doing in Philadelphia and how the locker room has collapsed for the Giants; team morale/chemistry isn’t measured by a spreadsheet, and I mostly feel bad for John Mara. If you rewatch the owner’s talks with general manager Joe Schoen on Hard Knocks, Mara was exactly right about the situation, and now it’s as if all the good times with Barkley will be erased considering all that will be accomplished by him in midnight green. If the Cowboys carry the momentum from last week’s win over the Commanders into Thanksgiving, “Black Monday” could be pushed up to Black Friday for the Giants.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
MIA (5-6) @ GB (8-3)
Thursday, November 28 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Frigid temperatures are in the forecast at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Night, and that would seem to favor the home team—especially based on how Josh Jacobs ran last week with 26 carries for 106 yards and three touchdowns. That said, Miami’s running game will be a huge challenge for Green Bay as well, and De’Von Achane’s receiving output (with a season line of 49/373/5 on 55 targets) shouldn’t be impacted much by the weather with a bunch of quick-strike throws, so linebacker Quay Walker and the defense need to keep their assignments and take down Achane before he gets going. The same is true for Miami’s defense in a battle versus Jacobs, as the unit could prove former teammate and current Steelers safety DeShon Elliott right about being “soft” to some extent if they get run all over in primetime with a chance to get to .500. Perhaps the Dolphins’ experience in cold-weather games in each of the past two postseasons (both losses) will have them prepared for the northern trek, but Green Bay is more physical, and the impact Jacobs has had isn’t being talked about enough because of what Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have done with new teams.
Winner: Green Bay Packers