Season: 133-62
GB (9-3) @ DET (11-1)
Thursday, December 5 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
A huge NFC North clash kicks of Week 14, as the Packers will try to keep their divisional hopes alive with a road win, while Detroit wants to stay ahead of Philadelphia in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Injuries to key defenders all over for the Lions will have them undermanned, but cornerback Carlton Davis (knee) is good to go—and Green Bay will be without their top perimeter wide receiver Romeo Doubs (concussion) and cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee). The rematch from a rainy game last month should feature more scoring at Ford Field, but I’m anticipating an emphasis on the run for both sides, especially after Detroit got away from it in the second half of their near collapse against the Bears on Thanksgiving. For the Packers, feeding Josh Jacobs will set up play-action shots to Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, so the Lions having Brian Branch for a full game after he was ejected in the first meeting will have them more prepared to prevent Jordan Love from connecting. Officiating is something to keep an eye on to see how much they allow the Detroit cornerbacks to be physical in coverage, but I like Dan Campbell’s squad to keep rolling.
Winner: Detroit Lions
NYJ (3-9) @ MIA (5-7)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Many of the media prognosticators surely believed before the season that this Jets-Dolphins game would be a potential battle for first place in the AFC East, but the Bills have already taken the divisional crown for the fifth consecutive year—with New York now playing for pride and Miami just trying to stay within striking distance for a wild card spot. It’s at least encouraging to see the Jets show some stoutness defending the run by limiting Jonathan Taylor (24 carries for 57 yards) and Kenneth Walker III (16 carries for 49 yards) over the past two games, but De’Von Achane will provide a different kind of challenge with all the ways Mike McDaniel tries to get the ball in his hands, and Raheem Mostert scored two touchdowns in both meetings last season (each being a blowout win for Miami). On the other side of the ball, a possible matchup between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey will be one to watch, but Ramsey might see more of Garrett Wilson on the outside, and injuries elsewhere in the secondary could allow Aaron Rodgers to have a big day. That said, I have more faith in the Dolphins finding a way to win, and they’ll be glad to be home after the wintry Thanksgiving Night loss at Lambeau Field.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
ATL (6-6) @ MIN (10-2)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota is one of the top storylines of Week 14, and the pressure is on for him with Atlanta looking to snap a three-game losing streak. During that span, Cousins has thrown for zero touchdowns with six interceptions, and Michael Penix Jr. flashing off the bench in the 38-6 loss to Denver adds another layer to the situation. Still, Cousins has played at an extremely high level at times this season, and the Vikings being without Stephon Gilmore (hamstring) would make them more vulnerable on the backend—and Minnesota is already allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game in the league (243.3). I would like to see Kyle Pitts more involved to make the passing attack more dangerous (one reception over the past two weeks), but the Falcons haven’t exactly pushed the right buttons this season; the Atlanta defense getting Mike Hughes (neck) back creates an interesting decision with Clark Phillips III playing very well on 100% of the snaps in two games with Hughes out, and whoever is out there obviously needs to be ready for Justin Jefferson. Even without much to be confident about based on the past month, I’m going with Cousins to flip a switch versus his former team to get the Falcons back on track.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
NO (4-8) @ NYG (2-10)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Giants were the first team eliminated from postseason contention this season with their Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, and the goal now is trying to keep things together over the final five weeks—a task that will be more difficult with their best player in Dexter Lawrence II (elbow) done for the year. New York was already allowing the most yards per carry (5.1) with Lawrence in the lineup, so things could get ugly this week with Alvin Kamara coming to town, and New Orleans having limited options at wide receiver might not matter based on the issues for the Giants at cornerback (something I and many others mentioned before the season that was never addressed). Despite what fans might want, “tanking” is not something a team should ever subscribe to, so for New York to get a victory, they should play heavily through Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers. Either way, the defense probably isn’t good enough to slow down Kamara without completely stacking the box and creating opportunities for Derek Carr to hit on a deep ball.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
CAR (3-9) @ PHI (10-2)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Bryce Young has been outstanding since his re-insertion under center, and the Panthers are 2-2 over the past four games with both losses coming on last-second field goals. Facing the Eagles and Cowboys over the next two weeks will be bigger challenges for Young, so Carolina needs to continue relying on the running game with Chuba Hubbard and rookie Jonathon Brooks (even if they fall behind) to keep everything from being on Young’s shoulders—which could drain the confidence built in recent weeks. The concern on Sunday is Philadelphia’s defensive front dominating to not even give Young a chance, and everyone in the secondary buying into what Vic Fangio wants to do (which wasn’t the case last year in Miami) gives the Eagles arguably the best defense in the league. Offensively, Philly getting DeVonta Smith (hamstring) back has the group primed for an explosion, and finishing with four of the final five games at home sets up very favorably for them ahead of the playoffs.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
CLE (3-9) @ PIT (9-3)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Along with Seahawks-Cardinals in the late afternoon slate, Browns-Steelers is a divisional rematch from a couple of weeks ago—and the records can always be thrown out when teams in the AFC North face off. Of course, the first meeting was a memorable Cleveland win with heavy snow taking over in the second half, and T.J. Watt not making a significant impact (compared to 3.0 sacks for Myles Garrett) was a major reason for Pittsburgh losing on the road. Fortunately for the Steelers, they’ll be helped by Alex Highsmith (ankle) returning in Round 2, and Watt capitalizing on every one-on-one opportunity is probably the standard he’ll set for himself this weekend. In coverage, I’m guessing we’ll see a lot of bracket looks for Jerry Jeudy to keep him from taking over like what happened in Denver on Monday night, so that could lead to more opportunities for David Njoku (one catch in the first meeting, but 17 targets last week). The wild card is always what version of Jameis Winston the Browns will get, but I’m leaning towards the Steelers before a brutal 11-day stretch through Christmas (@ PHI, @ BAL, v KC).
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
LV (2-10) @ TB (6-6)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Credit to the Raiders for giving the Chiefs a fight on Black Friday, and Aidan O’Connell was tremendous under center—including an ability to hit vertical throws, with the highlight being a 58-yard touchdown strike to Tre Tucker. As someone who wasn’t very high on O’Connell coming out of Purdue, I thought he was the better option than Gardner Minshew II entering the year based on what he showed as a rookie, so it’s all the more curious that Las Vegas gave the veteran a two-year, $25-million deal and seemed to install him as the starter despite O’Connell arguably showing better in the summer. Whether it was a directive from general manager Tom Telesco or a decision made by Antonio Pierce on his own accord, being unable to evaluate the quarterbacks on their own roster doesn’t bode well for the Raiders as they seek a signal-caller in 2025 (though having Tom Brady’s input should help). This week, a letdown following the heartbreaking loss feels very possible, and Tampa Bay could be playing for sole possession of first place in the NFC South depending on the result of Falcons-Vikings.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
JAX (2-10) @ TEN (3-9)
Sunday, December 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville is another two-win team that should be proud of their effort in Week 13, as they nearly upset the Texans—and just as importantly, the players showed fire after Trevor Lawrence was concussed on a dirty hit by Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. The other player ejected last week aside from Al-Shaair was Jaguars cornerback Jarrian Jones (who threw a punch), and I respect the rookie for saying Lawrence is his brother and he would do it again for anyone in the organization. Obviously, you don’t want guys fighting and getting tossed from games, but at a time where the culture needs to be rebuilt for Jacksonville, having players who care should only be seen as a positive. In general, there are some pieces on defense for the Jags to make things difficult on Will Levis this weekend, and Mac Jones played great in relief of Lawrence last Sunday and has a chance to showcase his talent as a potential starting option elsewhere in 2025.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
SEA (7-5) @ ARI (6-6)
Sunday, December 8 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Two weeks ago, the Cardinals were atop the NFC West ahead of a road matchup in Seattle (a 16-6 loss), and now the tables have turned with the Seahawks hoping to avoid the same thing happening to them for a trip to Arizona. I would expect a bit more scoring this time around, but both defenses have improved in recent weeks—with the Cardinals holding opponents to 13.5 points per game since the start of November, while Seattle has been stingy versus the run and more opportunistic in key moments. If Arizona wants to reclaim the top spot in the division, they must be better in scoring territory after settling for five field goals in last week’s loss to Minnesota; and it’s notable that the Seahawks have been much better preventing touchdowns at home (38.5% touchdown percentage in the red zone) compared to on the road (76.5%). The offensive line creating more room for James Conner (seven carries for eight scoreless yards in the first meeting) and using more quarterback runs could be key, but the Cardinals don’t seem to match up well on offense with Seattle being perfectly fine allowing production to Trey McBride—as they believe Kyler Murray won’t beat them in the red zone.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
BUF (10-2) @ LAR (6-6)
Sunday, December 8 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The attempt by Josh Allen haters to change the criteria for NFL MVP is hilarious, but Buffalo’s superstar quarterback could have won the award twice already, so I’m not exactly optimistic about him finally winning it despite being the favorite. Nevertheless, Allen’s objective is lifting the Lombardi Trophy, and the Bills need to be focused with two road challenges (@ LAR, @ DET) before an easier finish (v NE, v NYJ, @ NE) while waiting for the Chiefs to slip up atop the AFC. In two career matchups versus the Rams, Allen has totaled nine touchdowns with Buffalo putting up 33.0 points per game (both wins), and the defense will be weaker this year than the previous meetings (largely due to not having Aaron Donald)—so I’d be looking for Amari Cooper to be a crucial part of the passing attack on Sunday. Defensively, the Bills will be dealing with a heavy dose of Kyren Williams this week, but it’s an opportunity for Ed Oliver to step up on the defensive line, and linebacker Matt Milano will be a massive boost in his second game back.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
CHI (4-8) @ SF (5-7)
Sunday, December 8 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Bears president Kevin Warren deemed the head coach opening in Chicago “the most coveted job in the National Football League” in a press conference with general manager Ryan Poles after the firing of Matt Eberflus—but is it? If you consider the history of the organization and the chance to work with Caleb Williams, I guess the answer would be yes; but the Warren/Poles press conference was strange with the team president appearing to be the one with all the power, so it’s something top candidates like Ben Johnson or Mike Vrabel might not want to deal with. In the meantime, interim head coach Thomas Brown will be making a case to keep the role by getting some wins over the next month, but San Francisco won’t be an easy first opponent. Although many are counting the Niners out with Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle) on injured reserve, I believe they remain right in the thick of the playoff race, and recently claimed running back Israel Abanikanda is a name to watch down the stretch with Kyle Shanahan being unafraid to go with the hot hand.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
LAC (8-4) @ KC (11-1)
Sunday, December 8 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Chargers-Chiefs has not disappointed over the years, and Justin Herbert is one of the few quarterbacks to show he can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. However, standout play from Herbert has still led to a 1-6 record in the rivalry, and Los Angeles needs to add more around him to keep the division open for longer than the middle of December. On Sunday night, the Chargers could be at a larger disadvantage if Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) is less than 100%, but I expect him to play after beginning the week with a limited practice—and maybe we’ll see DJ Chark finally unleashed after three snaps in two appearances this season. Also, Kansas City has gotten worse on defense as the season has progressed, which hasn’t been the case in the past and could be an indicator that they might end up failing in their quest for a three-peat. On the other hand, Hollywood Brown (shoulder) is said to be nearing a return, and it would be typical for the offense to catch fire by January just when it seems the defense is no longer performing at an elite level.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
CIN (4-8) @ DAL (5-7)
Monday, December 9 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
Cincinnati and Dallas have two of the biggest disappointments of 2024, but the “vibes” are different for each side heading into Monday Night Football—as the Bengals continue to point the finger and wonder what has gone wrong, while the Cowboys have rallied around Mike McCarthy (including an endorsement from Dak Prescott) with playoffs on their mind. A couple of years ago, Dallas upset the Bengals in a game started by Cooper Rush, and it was the defense that led the way by sacking Joe Burrow six times, so there will be confidence they can get to 6-7. The offense for the Cowboys might need to do more than they did in the 2022 victory (20-17), but Trevon Diggs (groin/knee) returning would give them two playmaking cornerbacks to match Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins; and Cincinnati hasn’t been close to the defense they were in recent seasons—which could allow CeeDee Lamb to go off as he’s done in each of the past two Decembers. The offensive firepower for Cincinnati might allow them to outgun Dallas and keep their slim playoff hopes intact, but I think the Bengals’ nine lives will expire on Monday night.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys