Season: 121-61
LV (2-9) @ KC (10-1)
Friday, November 29 | 3:00 PM ET | Prime Video
Raiders-Chiefs was a very risky selection by Amazon for the Black Friday game with Las Vegas being a volatile team entering 2024—so fans might simply be hoping for a memorable moment like we had last season for Dolphins-Jets when Jevon Holland had the highlight 99-yard pick-six on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. The hope is that the combination of animosity and effort from the Raiders will make it a game, but Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points, and Aidan O’Connell’s thumb will be tested immediately in his return to the lineup for another cold-weather game in a week full of them. Also, if the matchup against the Raiders wasn’t enough motivation (it will be), the Chiefs should be focused after nearly being upset by Carolina in Week 12, and Patrick Mahomes has played much better over the past month or so. From the Las Vegas perspective, I would like to see Maxx Crosby aligned on the right side of the defense to get pass-rush opportunities against left tackle Wanya Morris, but it’ll probably take a complete takeover by Crosby for the Silver and Black to have a shot.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
LAC (7-4) @ ATL (6-5)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Chargers’ lack of high-end talent on the roster was exposed some by the Ravens on Monday night, but the franchise has the head coach and quarterback in place to be a perennial contender—and it was really just a play or two that could have made the difference in Week 12. Sunday will be another challenge, though, as the Falcons are rested coming off the bye (compared to a short week for Los Angeles), and I get the feeling Bijan Robinson could go ballistic (almost accidentally) with Atlanta trying to establish the run to create more play-action opportunities for Kirk Cousins. Rookie cornerback Cam Hart (concussion/ankle) being back to match Drake London would at least help LA if they decide to pour more resources into stopping the run, but Baltimore showed the Chargers can be attacked down the field, which Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts can also exploit. Justin Herbert should have plenty of time if the Falcons don’t find a way to generate a pass rush, but I’m going with Atlanta’s offense to score enough at home.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
PIT (8-3) @ CIN (4-7)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Cincinnati is entering what feels like their third consecutive do-or-die game, but they dropped both road matchups against the Ravens and Chargers prior to the bye, and it’s truly now or never for them at this point. For his career, Joe Burrow is 3-2 against the Steelers, and he’s been sacked two or fewer times in the three wins—but a combined 11 times in the two losses, so this weekend will come down to whether the Bengals can hold up in pass protection. If they can, Burrow will give Cincinnati a chance, but T.J. Watt was held without a sack last week, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t make a significant impact with an opportunity to bury the Bengals. On the other side of the ball, a shaky Cincinnati secondary might not have answers for George Pickens, and we could see Mike Williams be a bigger factor considering the struggles for Lou Anarumo’s defense on the backend. Overall, the trust in Mike Tomlin combined with Watt being too quiet last week gives the edge to Pittsburgh.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
HOU (7-5) @ JAX (2-9)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
No changes were made in Jacksonville despite getting destroyed by the Lions, 52-6, before the bye, but firings are basically inevitable—so we’ll see how much fight the roster has over the final six weeks. Fortunately, it sounds like Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) could be back on Sunday, and the first matchup was a down-to-the-wire finish where Houston won on a receiving score by Dare Ogunbowale with 18 seconds remaining. The Texans have fallen off with a 2-4 stretch and struggles from C.J. Stroud becoming more apparent, but Nico Collins exploded against Jacksonville back in Week 4 with a 12/151/1 line, and Stroud has torched the Jags in three career matchups (all wins); the key for Doug Pederson’s squad to pull off an upset is cornerback Tyson Campbell (who missed the first matchup) slowing down Collins and Josh Hines-Allen playing like he did in the second meeting last year with 2.5 sacks—but Jacksonville allowing Stroud to break out of his slump is the more likely outcome.
Winner: Houston Texans
ARI (6-5) @ MIN (9-2)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Kevin O’Connell clearly believes in Daniel Jones’ talent, and he saw firsthand the kind of potential the former No. 6 overall pick has by going off against the Vikings in the 2022 postseason with 301 yards and two touchdowns through the air, along with an additional 17 carries for 78 yards on the ground. Critics couldn’t wait to pounce on Jones when he struggled this year, but O’Connell’s comments about organizations failing quarterbacks is accurate, and Minnesota developing Sam Darnold after “failing” with the Jets is one of many examples you can point to. It’s interesting that Jones signed with the Vikings practice squad to keep his options open in the event of an injury around the league that would allow him to sign elsewhere, but if not, he’ll get top coaching in a situation not unlike the one Darnold had in San Francisco last year. Focusing on this week, Justin Jefferson is going to explode before long, and Brian Flores might cause problems for Kyler Murray to keep Minnesota within a game of Detroit in the NFC North.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
IND (5-7) @ NE (3-9)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The insertion of Drake Maye into the starting lineup created a definite spark for New England, but they are now 1-5 in games he has started and finished, including three losses by 16+ points—and that’s while facing only one opponent (Houston) with at least a .500 record. Last week was perhaps the most disappointing outing yet because Maye absorbed a couple of long sacks and the Patriots were blown out by the Dolphins after barely losing the first matchup, but the offensive line did the rookie no favors by getting consistently dominated. Indianapolis has the pieces on the defensive front to make it another difficult day for Maye, so New England can’t fall behind like they did in Miami; that’s especially true because it would give the Colts a better chance of getting Jonathan Taylor going, and Anthony Richardson showed some good things for the second week in a row. Josh Downs (shoulder) being out will hurt Indy’s offense, but it’s crucial for them to play through Taylor like the last December meeting (2021) when he rushed 29 times for 170 yards and a touchdown.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
SEA (6-5) @ NYJ (3-8)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Aaron Rodgers being off the injury report could lead to a healthier, sharper quarterback down the stretch for New York, but it’s almost certainly too late for it to make a difference this season—so it’s all about 2025 and if/where the four-time NFL MVP will play. I think there were enough flashes from Rodgers earlier in the season to believe he can still play at a high level, and Davante Adams seems to be running with some anger about how the season has gone, which Seattle must be ready for out of the slot. The status of Breece Hall (knee) needs to be monitored, but the Jets should use rookie Braelon Allen more anyway, as Hall can keep some tread off the tires in a lost season—and the duo of Hall/Allen will be very appealing to head coach candidates in the winter. This weekend, the Seahawks could be a challenge to move the ball against on the ground because of how they’ve focused on stopping Christian McCaffrey (19 carries for 79 yards) and James Conner (seven carries for eight yards) in two divisional wins since their bye. I like Seattle to keep it going with their third consecutive victory.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
TEN (3-8) @ WAS (7-5)
Sunday, December 1 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
It was mentioned last week that a loss for Washington could put their playoff hopes in serious jeopardy despite a 7-2 start, and a Tennessee team that just pulled off an upset over the Texans won’t be easy—especially with head coach Brian Callahan saying the Titans are “not dead yet.” The Commanders might get reinforcements in the form of cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) making his team debut, but Brain Robinson Jr. (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) could both be out on offense; that puts a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels with the running game being such an important part of the offense being as prolific as it was to begin the season, and Tennessee continues to have the top-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed (169.6). However, the unit has allowed a 17:5 touchdown-interception ratio on the season, and Daniels being more explosive as a runner last week (seven carries for 74 yards and a touchdown) is something that should continue Sunday and moving forward if Washington wants to play beyond the first week of January.
Winner: Washington Commanders
TB (5-6) @ CAR (3-8)
Sunday, December 1 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
The Buccaneers are very much in the NFC South race despite dropping both games to Atlanta this season, and they have one of the most favorable schedules in the league over the final six weeks (@ CAR, v LV, @ LAC, @ DAL, v CAR, v NO). Of course, Carolina playing like they have since Bryce Young’s return to the lineup will make them a much tougher challenge than anticipated, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick was dropping dimes in the 30-27 loss to the Chiefs—which should have his confidence at an all-time high. The chess match between Dave Canales (after one season running the Tampa Bay offense) and Todd Bowles will probably decide the game, but the Bucs have arguably been better on offense under Liam Coen, and the play of rookie Bucky Irving (152 total yards last week) is a big reason for it. If the Panthers are unable to stop the running back and Bowles’ defense can create some chaos to disrupt Young, Tampa Bay should take care of business on the road.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LAR (5-6) @ NO (4-7)
Sunday, December 1 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
A stated a couple of weeks ago, New Orleans has been much more competitive with Derek Carr in the lineup (now 4-4), and they could be a dangerous opponent for the Rams—who were worn down last week in a 37-20 loss to the Eagles. A major part of the Saints playing better under interim head coach Darren Rizzi has been their willingness to feature Taysom Hill, and the do-it-all weapon thrived when prioritized against Los Angeles a couple of years ago with 10 touches for 60 yards (in a 27-20 win). We can expect a heavy dose of Hill for an offense that lacks firepower at wide receiver, but Carr has capitalized on the throws that have been there with touchdowns bombs of 40 and 71 (with another 67-yard completion) in back-to-back wins, so New Orleans is trending up with the wild card race looking more open than it was when they last hit the field. That said, I don’t see the Saints being able to stick with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua considering all the issues on the backend without Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo (leg), and Matthew Stafford could dice up the secondary if given time.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
PHI (9-2) @ BAL (8-4)
Sunday, December 1 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Running backs matter, but perhaps more so, competent organizations matter—and there are no better examples than what has happened with the Eagles, Ravens, and Packers compared to the Giants, Titans, and Raiders this season after seeing dominant runners sign with new teams. Everything starts with having the right infrastructure in place to draft and develop the quarterback, as Saquon Barkley wouldn’t have signed in Philadelphia if Jalen Hurts wasn’t a star, and Derrick Henry straight up stated he “wanted to be somewhere that had a solid foundation” while pointing out the longevity of Baltimore’s success and desire to play with Lamar Jackson. Barkley and Henry are capable of breaking a long run and going off against any opponent, but I think it’ll be the quarterbacks that shine more this weekend, and the Ravens badly need Roquan Smith (hamstring) back to help slow down Philly’s offense. Either way, Baltimore hasn’t lived up to expectations all year on defense, and the green grass available for Justin Herbert on Monday night could be something Hurts is able to routinely exploit if it’s not shored up.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
SF (5-6) @ BUF (9-2)
Sunday, December 1 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The first day of December is expected to bring a huge snowstorm to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football, but San Francisco doesn’t fall into the category of other non-northern teams that might lack toughness in winter conditions—and Fred Warner playing through a fractured ankles since Week 4 shows the kind of championship mentality for the 49ers despite a 5-6 record. Although Brock Purdy (shoulder) seems highly questionable this week, Brandon Allen made some nice throws against Green Bay, and the snow could potentially help neutralize things with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle being guys that could remain difficult to bring down on a wintry track. The Bills will be helped by standout linebacker Matt Milano (bicep) likely returning, though, and Josh Allen, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid (knee; if he plays) will be tough be tackle, too. I’ll be very interested to see how Amari Cooper plays in the conditions, but it’ll be good experience for January football. With a chance to lock up the AFC East, look for Buffalo to come out of the bye fired up to make sure they don’t lose momentum following the Week 11 win over Kansas City.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
CLE (3-8) @ DEN (7-5)
Monday, December 2 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
Denver fans have been out in full force this week to defend Bo Nix with the geniuses in the media not wanting to give him credit for high-level quarterback play over the past two months—but he sure isn’t playing like a “checkdown merchant” with downfield strikes both inside and outside of structure. The Broncos will only add more and more talent as Nix’s career progresses, and the personnel has even gotten a boost throughout this season with the explosive Marvin Mims Jr. becoming more of a factor in recent games (something Sean Payton said he’s “mad at himself” about for not featuring him earlier). I would have loved for David Njoku to be acquired at the trade deadline as a great potential fit in Denver, but they’ll instead be tasked with slowing him down on Monday night, and this won’t be an easy game at all with Jameis Winston making Cleveland a dangerous opponent (2-2 record with wins over the Ravens and Steelers). The key for the Broncos should be stopping Nick Chubb to make the Browns become one-dimensional, and the ability of Nix to avoid sacks can prevent Myles Garrett from a takeover performance like we saw last Thursday night.
Winner: Denver Broncos