Season: 143-65
LAR (7-6) @ SF (6-7)
Thursday, December 12 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Rams-49ers is another exciting Thursday Night Football matchup between divisional rivals with major playoff implications, and the first meeting didn’t disappoint with Los Angeles winning, 27-24, on a field goal with two seconds remaining. San Francisco was up 24-14 in the fourth quarter, though, and it’s worth noting that Kyle Shanahan has typically had the upper hand over Sean McVay with a 5-2 record in regular season games against the Rams since LA acquired Matthew Stafford—with the losses being a “meaningless” Week 18 game last year (Sam Darnold versus Carson Wentz) and the September defeat this season. I expect tonight’s game will be decided by the cornerback group that holds up better, as the Niners need to slow down Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp after they shredded Buffalo, while the Rams must stop Jauan Jennings (11/175/3 in the first matchup). Nacua didn’t play in the first matchup and Trent Williams (ankle) will be out again for San Francisco, but I like the Niners with rookie cornerback Renardo Green perhaps having another standout TNF performance after shining in a win over Seattle earlier this year.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
DAL (5-8) @ CAR (3-10)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cowboys put up a fight against the Bengals on Monday night, but a late defensive stop was erased by an unfortunate (but understandable) mistake by cornerback Amani Oruwariye on special teams—and Dallas now needs to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs. I thought CeeDee Lamb should have been targeted more underneath last week to counter Cincinnati’s adjustment of a safety playing over the top after a big first quarter, as the Bengals don’t tackle well, and Lamb showed what he can do with the ball in his hands on the 43-yard catch and run early in the game. If Dallas can start fast this weekend, an angry Micah Parsons will be able to get into pass-rush mode versus a quarterback in Bryce Young that has continued to play tremendous football, and Parsons’ relentlessness can help him stick with last year’s No. 1 overall pick when he tries to extend plays.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
KC (12-1) @ CLE (3-10)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Jameis Winston has a chance to be the hero this week for other AFC contenders by preventing Kansas City from staying somewhat comfortably in position for the No. 1 seed, but the potential absence of David Njoku (hamstring) would be a massive loss—especially considering the struggles defending tight ends this year for the Chiefs. Kansas City has a key injury of their own with new left tackle D.J. Humphries (hamstring) looking shaky for Week 15, and him being out would make a takeover performance by Myles Garrett much more likely on Sunday. That said, the Chiefs are primed to blow an opponent out eventually, and Travis Kelce has completely dominated his hometown team in four career matchups (including playoffs) with lines of 6/43/1, 7/99/2, 8/109/1, and 6/76/2. Kansas City being more vulnerable on the backend this year could allow Winston to pull off the upset, but Isiah Pacheco is getting his feet back under him, and the Chiefs offense could be coming together at the perfect time.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
MIA (6-7) @ HOU (8-5)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Texans have gone 3-4 and not played their best football since a 5-1 start, but the bye week came at a good time for them to have a soft reset ahead of their difficult stretch with three games in 11 days (v MIA, @ KC, v BAL). C.J. Stroud throwing for 220.0 yards per game with a 5:5 touchdown-interception ratio over the past seven games brings up questions about Houston being figured out offensively, and situation reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield lighting it up as a rookie with pinpoint accuracy all over the field before struggles in Year 2. Miami can certainly be attacked (as shown last week with Aaron Rodgers putting up 339 yards through the air), but the Texans will want to control the game to avoid a shootout with the Dolphins getting all four of De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith rolling at the same time. Of course, a pass rush is the best way to disrupt Tua Tagovailoa (and any quarterback), so Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. could be the difference.
Winner: Houston Texans
NYJ (3-10) @ JAX (3-10)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Aaron Rodgers said this week that the Jets might have “some sort of curse” they need to break as an organization—but I think the struggles are much simpler than that, and the franchise just needs to hire a competent general manager, who in turn will bring in a competent head coach. Although the biggest decision New York’s new regime will need to make for 2025 is whether to retain Rodgers (who would be off the books for 2026 if traded/released), what to do with the young trio of Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Sauce Gardner could determine the path for the rest of the decade; I would strongly consider trading all three rather than shelling out big-money extensions, but then you’d obviously need to hit on the treasure chest of draft picks to remake the roster. Jacksonville is the case study in the danger of handing out large contracts above a player’s worth, and not to knock any of Hall, Wilson, or Gardner, but I would be wary of extending them with top-of-the-market deals (if that’s what it would take). For this week, the older veterans in Rodgers and Davante Adams could be the ones leading the way to get the Jets a win.
Winner: New York Jets
WAS (8-5) @ NO (5-8)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Derek Carr (hand) is considered week-to-week, and I might have gone with the Saints to win at home this week if their quarterback was healthy. Instead, New Orleans’ chances of playing spoiler are obviously limited with Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center, and whoever gets the nod at quarterback will have to face a Washington defense that gets boosted by cornerback Marshon Lattimore making his Commanders debut back at the Superdome versus his former team. To have any chance of keeping their minuscule playoff hopes alive, the Saints must start with stopping Brian Robinson Jr. and the running game for Washington, but I’m sure Jayden Daniels will want to put on a show back in Louisiana after a Heisman season for LSU last year. If somehow New Orleans does find a way to pull off an upset, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Carr return for next Monday night’s game in Green Bay.
Winner: Washington Commanders
BAL (8-5) @ NYG (2-11)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Lamar Jackson is ready to run, Derrick Henry is recharged following the bye, and the Giants have planes flying over the stadium before games calling the team a “dumpster fire”—so it’s no surprise Ravens-Giants is the largest spread of the 2024 season (-16.5). New York did show some fight last week by containing Alvin Kamara, and effort hasn’t been close to the primary issue under the current regime, which is a credit to Brian Daboll. I wonder if Bill Belichick becoming the head coach at North Carolina could be a sign that Daboll will remain in place for next season, as the Giants seemed to be a top potential landing spot, and I don’t think Belichick took a college job without some backdoor conversations about every possible opening. If a change does happen in New York, no obvious candidate would come to mind if Ben Johnson (Bears?) and Mike Vrabel (Raiders?) were off the board, but John Harbaugh would feel like a natural fit to me depending on how the season ends for Baltimore.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
CIN (5-8) @ TEN (3-10)
Sunday, December 15 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
A collapse by the Ravens. Chargers, or Broncos would be needed, but Cincinnati remaining in the playoff race makes for a more exciting finish over the final four weeks—as they would strike fear into any opponent in the AFC next month. This week, Tennessee could prove to be a challenge if the Bengals aren’t focused, and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie recorded an interception last week in his return to the lineup and would love to do it again versus his former team. Overall, the Titans have the NFL’s best pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed (175.5), and the team finally having Awuzie and Roger McCreary (shoulder, set to return after missing Week 14) together for the first time since September makes up for the continued absence of L’Jarius Sneed (quad). However, there is no doubt that Joe Burrow remembers the 27-3 loss to Tennessee last season, and Ja’Marr Chase (14/177/2 versus Dallas) appears too unstoppable right now.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
NE (3-10) @ ARI (6-7)
Sunday, December 15 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
While many thought New England would contend for a playoff spot this season, they struck out in free agency, drafted for need, and lost the greatest coach in NFL history—so another offseason like that would severely limit the chances of long-term success for Drake Maye. One thing to watch out for over the final four games this year is the No. 3 overall pick building a connection with fellow rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, as the Patriots have made it known that they’ll roll with some younger players to evaluate for 2025. Despite the fumbling issues, Rhamondre Stevenson is a piece we know will be in place to grow with Maye, and a big game from him on Sunday is very possible with Arizona just being run on by another power back in Zach Charbonnet. And on the other side of the ball, perhaps the game plan from the first matchup against Kyler Murray where Bill Belichick often dropped eight defenders into coverage will be replicated—but the Cardinals are much better equipped to run the ball with James Conner if that’s the case, and they’re still in the NFC West race despite the three-game losing streak.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
IND (6-7) @ DEN (8-5)
Sunday, December 15 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Colts-Broncos is arguably the most important game of Week 15, as Denver can put themselves in excellent position for a playoff spot with a victory—while a loss would suddenly open the door for the Dolphins, Bengals, and Colts themselves. Both teams are rested coming out of the bye, but Denver cornerback Riley Moss (knee) not practicing to begin the week doesn’t bode well for his chances of suiting up, and Indianapolis has plenty of pass-catchers with Josh Downs (shoulder) back to avoid Pat Surtain II all game. Also, I get the feeling Jonathan Taylor is due for a long run (zero plays of 15+ yards over the past three games), and he’s proven to be a late-season performer throughout his career. Sean Payton has surely been in the lab and should have some things dialed up coming out of the bye, though, and the Bo Nix haters have gone deep into the analytics bag in an attempt to discredit him because the eye test (for anyone watching without bias) and raw numbers (17:4 touchdown-interception ratio since an 0-2 start) have passed with flying colors. I’m not entirely confident in the pick this week, but the Broncos being at home should allow them to come away with a win.
Winner: Denver Broncos
BUF (10-3) @ DET (12-1)
Sunday, December 15 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Buffalo’s loss to the Rams last week was very discouraging for anyone hoping this is the year for them to finally come out of the AFC in January, as it felt like previous seasons where the defense simply couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most. A historic performance with Josh Allen becoming the first player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a single game wasn’t even enough, and the Bills could be in for another postseason disappointment if the defensive line doesn’t come alive in key situations. Detroit will be another playoff-type test for Buffalo, so having Keon Coleman (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (knee) back at least gives Allen more firepower if he needs to win another shootout. But as shown time and time again (including last week), Allen can’t do it all himself versus top competition, and the Lions will likely either run all over Buffalo (4.7 yards per carry allowed) or hit them with play-action strikes when they try to stack the box. At home and with a few extra days to prepare, I’m going with Detroit.
Winner: Detroit Lions
TB (7-6) @ LAC (8-5)
Sunday, December 15 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The status of Justin Herbert (ankle/thigh) is in doubt after getting beat up in the loss to Kansas City on Sunday night, but I’d fully expect him to play through the injuries—particularly with the AFC wild card race tightening up. Tampa Bay also has injury issues headlined offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs (foot/knee) and star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee), the latter of which should allow Herbert to have success through the air if he’s able to suit up. On defense, the Chargers have been both stout and opportunistic in coverage, so Baker Mayfield must play better after throwing multiple interceptions in each of the past two weeks (against the 3-10 Panthers and 2-11 Raiders). The positives for the Tampa Bay offense last week were third-round pick Jalen McMillan coming through with a breakout 4/59/2 line and Rachaad White (109 total yards and two total touchdowns) proving he can power the backfield after Bucky Irving (back/hip) left early—so keeping balance is crucial to open things up for Mike Evans. Still, the injuries to Wirfs and Winfield are very impactful, and again, I expect Herbert to play.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
PIT (10-3) @ PHI (11-2)
Sunday, December 15 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Not flexing any of these late-afternoon games into the early window (or better yet, improving the Monday Night Football doubleheader) makes zero sense, but Steelers-Eagles is nonetheless a heavyweight bout between two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Something will have to give between Pittsburgh not winning in Philadelphia since 1965 and Russell Wilson being 6-0 against the Eagles in his career (including playoffs)—and drama brought upon by Brandon Graham on local radio adds another storyline to the game as Philly looks to get the passing game on track. A couple of years ago, A.J. Brown destroyed the Steelers with six receptions for 156 yards and three touchdowns, and the chess match will be intriguing; Pittsburgh doubling Brown could lead to Saquon Barkley or DeVonta Smith going off, so the Steelers throwing Joey Porter Jr. into the fire and hoping he can contain Brown might be the best shot on defense. For the Pittsburgh offense, not having George Pickens (hamstring) comes at the worst possible time, but being the more physical team and hitting on a shot or two to Mike Williams is the formula to a victory.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
GB (9-4) @ SEA (8-5)
Sunday, December 15 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Green Bay had some time to cool off from the heated loss to the Lions last Thursday night, but they’ll need to bring the intensity again this week for another primetime matchup—this time versus a red-hot Seattle squad that has won four games in a row since coming out of the bye. What makes the Seahawks dangerous is the playmakers they have on both sides of the ball, which speaks to the drafting done in recent years; last week, it was non-household names Zach Charbonnet (193 total yards and two total touchdowns) and Coby Bryant (interception and forced fumble) that led the win over Arizona, and the roster has a terrific blend of star power and impactful depth. The Packers are built similarly and should get one of their best players in Jaire Alexander (knee) back on Sunday night, but Jayden Reed (zero receptions last week) is the guy to watch for me—as he could get loose amidst the chaos on the backend and will likely be prioritized in a variety of ways.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
CHI (4-9) @ MIN (11-2)
Monday, December 16 | 8:00 PM ET | ABC
I thought Chicago might show some fire last week in the first game without Matt Eberflus, but the complete opposite happened in a 38-13 loss to the Niners—which naturally brings up concern about exactly what kind of team has been built under Ryan Poles. A simple way to look at the tenure: David Montgomery leads a top-five rushing offense for the Lions after the Bears deemed he wasn’t worth re-signing, and Roquan Smith captains a league-best Baltimore run defense after Poles thought he wasn’t worth building around. The Vikings are an example of what hitting on the head coach can do for an organization, and Kevin O’Connell has completely unlocked Sam Darnold’s potential over the past month with 289.5 passing yards per game and an 11:0 touchdown-interception ratio since his three-interception performance in Week 10. Minnesota also hit on the defensive coordinator hire with Brian Flores, and I’d expect him to have an answer for Caleb Williams after he put up 373 total yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
ATL (6-7) @ LV (2-11)
Monday, December 16 | 8:30 PM ET | ESPN
Kirk Cousins has always been a streaky passer, but he’s trying to climb out of the coldest stretch of his career with zero touchdowns and eight interceptions during Atlanta’s four-game losing streak—and Monday night being his last chance before the keys are turned over to Michael Penix Jr. feels like a very real possibility. To be fair, Atlanta doesn’t appear to have any more direction than they have in previous seasons when quarterback was a question mark, and tight end Kyle Pitts is far too talented of a player to produce at his current level (one reception or fewer in all but one game since the start of November). The pass rush has at least improved for the Falcons, so that’s something they need to have continue versus either a hobbled Aidan O’Connell (knee) or their former third-round pick Desmond Ridder on Monday night. If not, team owner Arthur Blank will be wondering if he made a mistake in not hiring Bill Belichick… if he’s not thinking that already.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons