Season: 156-68
DEN (9-5) @ LAC (8-6)
Thursday, December 19 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The Broncos will lock up a playoff spot with a win tonight, and I would expect a very focused group on a short week—and perhaps even a homefield advantage with Denver fans taking over SoFi Stadium. Bo Nix had three interceptions last week, but he showed resiliency with three touchdown passes, and the Colts deserve credit for bringing intensity on defense that seemed to take time for the Broncos to get a feel for. To make things easier on Nix, the running game needs to somehow get going, and perhaps the absence of Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) will lead to rookie Audric Estimé being featured like he was last month in the near upset win over the Chiefs with 14 carries for 53 yards. I could also see Marvin Mims Jr. being used more in the backfield to make up for the lack of juice with McLaughlin out, and Nix’s legs should be a bigger factor, too. The more impactful absence for Denver will likely be cornerback Riley Moss (knee), and the pass defense hasn’t been close to as dominant with him out all this month. Still, the Broncos eventually found their footing late in the first meeting (a 23-16 loss), won’t have to deal with J.K. Dobbins (knee), and are 2-0 in primetime games so far this season.
Winner: Denver Broncos
HOU (9-5) @ KC (13-1)
Saturday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | NBC
Patrick Mahomes going down with another ankle injury and the Kansas City defense playing their best as the postseason rolls around is a story we’ve seen before—but two games in five days against the aggressive fronts of Houston and Pittsburgh will be a major test for Andy Reid’s offense if Mahomes isn’t quite himself. Fortunately for them, Hollywood Brown (shoulder) is set to return this weekend, so the passing attack could be primed for takeoff, and Mahomes has loved playing the Texans with a 13:1 touchdown-interception ratio in four career matchups (including playoffs). The offensive tackles will be tested by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., though, and Houston locking up the AFC South last week might even take the pressure off C.J. Stroud and the offense to get them performing closer to how they did in 2023. But it’s tough to go against the Chiefs finding a way to win, and going 2-0 during the Christmas stretch would lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and give Mahomes a long rest to heal up for the Divisional Round.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
PIT (10-4) @ BAL (9-5)
Saturday, December 21 | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
Including the 18-16 loss last month, Lamar Jackson has gone 1-4 against the Steelers in his career, and Mike Tomlin’s squad has taken control of the rivalry in general by winning eight of the past nine matchups. However, “domination” certainly wouldn’t be the word to describe the recent history with each of the past nine meetings being decided by one score, and Pittsburgh could be at a disadvantage with George Pickens (hamstring) out again and T.J. Watt (ankle) at less than 100%. Of course, Tomlin will have his guys ready as always, and claiming the AFC North with a victory against a bitter rival is all the motivation that will be needed on Saturday evening. The key for Baltimore—aside from Justin Tucker hitting opportunities for field goals (90.9% in wins and 56.3% in losses this season)—is Jackson doing damage as a runner when he can, and it’ll help that he’s on fire as a passer with more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four) last week. I was originally going to go with Pittsburgh on the road, but Pickens being out limits the offensive firepower in a battle where every bit of it might be needed.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
NYG (2-12) @ ATL (7-7)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Kirk Cousins has not played well at all in recent weeks, and the NFL being a meritocracy really gave Atlanta no other choice but to roll with No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. in a playoff race; but Cousins would have never signed with the Falcons if he knew they were taking a quarterback in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft, and as an outside observer, the Falcons frankly don’t appear to have the best structure in place to have success. That said, Penix is someone we were very high on coming out of Washington, and he’ll unlock a downfield element for Atlanta’s offense by immediately being one of the best deep-ball passers in the NFL. If the rookie lights it up in his debut, New York—after seeking a franchise quarterback in the offseason as shown on Hard Knocks—will have passed on both Bo Nix and Penix, but Malik Nabers has been one of the lone brights spots for the team this year, and he has takeover ability if the Falcons don’t have a plan to slow him down.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
ARI (7-7) @ CAR (3-11)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cardinals were able to get back on track with a 30-17 win over the Patriots last week, and as expected, James Conner was a big part of it by rushing 16 times for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Finding a way to unlock Marvin Harrison Jr. as an impact player is crucial for Arizona to make a real run at the NFC West title (a showdown versus the Rams next Saturday night looms large), but in the meantime, tight end Trey McBride continued his exceptional play as the primary weapon for Kyler Murray—and I get the feeling he could score his first receiving touchdown of the year this week (he does have a rushing score, so offensive tackle Jonah Williams doesn’t quite have bragging rights). For the Panthers, they need to do a better job keeping Bryce Young clean than they did in the loss to Dallas when he was sacked six times, and last week felt like a clear step back for the team with them being unable to overcome an early lost fumble by Young (which started as a highlight by leaving Micah Parsons grasping at air with a spin move). The Cardinals have plenty of energy on defense, so Carolina needs to be ready to match them on both sides of the ball to avoid appearing overmatched again.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
DET (12-2) @ CHI (4-10)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Chicago gave the Lions a fight on Thanksgiving, but in just two games since, the team has completely fallen apart with non-competitive losses to the 49ers and Vikings—giving some validation to Matt Eberflus by showing he might have gotten the best out of a defense that lacks star power outside of cornerback Jaylon Johnson (the unit has allowed 34.0 points per game over the past two weeks). Sunday being the first game back at Soldier Field without Eberflus will be a very interesting environment now that plenty of heat has fallen on general manager Ryan Poles, and his preseason comments about the offensive line being the deepest group he’s had with “10 guys” he feels comfortable with have not aged well; this week, all three of Braxton Jones (concussion), Teven Jenkins (calf), and Ryan Bates (concussion) appear highly questionable, and the nightmare scenario of Caleb Williams getting broken as a rookie could be coming true. While the No. 1 overall pick might have some confidence after a strong second half in the first matchup versus Detroit, I don’t see the Bears stopping a full dose Jahmyr Gibbs.
Winner: Detroit Lions
TEN (3-11) @ IND (6-8)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Titans head coach Brian Callahan was set off by a question about the team being “soft” this week and went into an expletive-laden rant—and his pushback is 100% accurate. Tennessee misevaluating the quarterback position and poorly constructing the roster are much fairer criticisms (and things we have brought up since the offseason), but I’ve not once thought of them as being a soft or weak-minded team; and while the language was a little harsh, more people should be critical of the media when they try to craft a false narrative. We’ll see if Callahan essentially sticking up for the players leads to them being even more fired up on the road, but Jonathan Taylor will be playing with an edge as well after the costly mistake by dropping the ball at the goal-line last week. For the quarterback matchup, Mason Rudolph is a much steadier hand compared to Will Levis, but I’ll still give the edge to Anthony Richardson’s upside, and the Colts have three winnable games left (v TEN, @ NYG, v JAX) with the loser of Broncos-Chargers suddenly being in some danger.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
LAR (8-6) @ NYJ (4-10)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Hit pieces continue to come out about the Jets, but the most important piece of news this week was Aaron Rodgers saying he’s “open to everything” regarding another pay cut if the team wants him back—and also that he’d be very willing to mentor a draft pick at quarterback. The win over Jacksonville in Week 14 showed that Rodgers can still play at a high level (remember, he’s coming off a torn Achilles), and Davante Adams seems to have plenty left in the tank, too; that could spell trouble for the Rams in an ever-tightening NFC West race with the cornerbacks being overmatched by Adams and Garrett Wilson, so rookie safety Kamren Kinchens is the X-factor as the playmaking third safety for Los Angeles. In the New York secondary, Sauce Gardner had his first interception since his rookie campaign last week, and the boosted confidence ahead of the matchup versus Puka Nacua could be exactly what’s needed to pull off the upset.
Winner: New York Jets
PHI (12-2) @ WAS (9-5)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The first matchup between Philadelphia and Washington was a close one (the Commanders were up 10-6 entering the fourth quarter), but Saquon Barkley eventually broke through with two touchdown bursts in the final five minutes of an eventual 26-18 victory. Now, the Eagles will have a chance to lock up the NFC East in the rematch by extending their winning streak to 11 games, and the passing attack is in a much better spot than it was last month—including a healthier DeVonta Smith. Washington will hope having cornerback Marshon Lattimore can allow them to combat A.J. Brown and Smith, but I don’t think it’ll make much of a difference if Jalen Hurts plays as well as he did last week when he completed 25-of-32 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Philly has continued to make the case for being the best defense in football, and Vic Fangio should have answers for different usage out of Terry McLaurin after limiting him to one catch for 10 yards last month. If the Eagles can again contain Jayden Daniels as a runner (seven carries for 18 yards in Week 11), they should take the divisional crown with a win over the road.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
CLE (3-11) @ CIN (6-8)
Sunday, December 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Browns have given the Bengals fits in recent years, and a 100-yard kick return touchdown by Charlie Jones on the first play of the October meeting ended up being the difference in a 21-14 win for Cincinnati despite Cleveland playing all three of Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Jameis Winston at quarterback. Thompson-Robinson will be under center this week and should be better with a full week of preparation (at least that’s Cleveland’s hope after he had 82 yards and two interceptions on 24 attempts in the first matchup), but the Bengals going two-for-13 on third downs was what kept the Browns in the game, and I fully expect Joe Burrow to be on point for the rematch. If so, Cleveland probably needs David Njoku (hamstring) healthy to have a shot, and DTR being used on designed runs adds another element to the offense with Nick Chubb (foot) lost for the season. Denzel Ward could give Cincinnati issues, but he’ll be tested with Ja’Marr Chase sure to see more than the six targets he had in Week 7.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
MIN (12-2) @ SEA (8-6)
Sunday, December 22 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Geno Smith (knee) fortunately seems good to go for this weekend, and he’ll be needed against a very aggressive, blitz-heavy defense after Sam Howell didn’t fare well at all in a similar spot off the bench last Sunday night (five-of-14 for 24 yards and an interception with four sacks taken). Assuming Smith does indeed suit up, the status of Kenneth Walker III (calf) is the one to watch as a big-play monster who could offset some of the pressure packages sent by Brian Flores; but if he’s out again and Zach Charbonnet (oblique) can’t go either, don’t sleep on Kenny McIntosh as a well-rounded weapon leading the backfield. Either way, the Seahawks need to find a way to get DK Metcalf going (54.4 receiving yards per game and zero touchdowns in five weeks since a two-game absence), particularly as a downfield threat if/when he’s given single coverage. We know Minnesota will take advantage of such opportunities for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, so if Sam Darnold doesn’t turn the ball over, I like them to take another step towards a possible Week 18 matchup against Detroit for the No. 1 seed.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
NE (3-11) @ BUF (11-3)
Sunday, December 22 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Patriots-Bills being flexed to the late-afternoon slate will make an extremely cold game even more frigid with temperatures dropping into the single digits by the second half—but it’ll be a great opportunity for each side. Buffalo is obviously gearing up for the playoffs, so the adversity they’ll face in winter conditions can only benefit them in January (the first test was aced by beating the 49ers in the snow); and the Patriots have not had the season they anticipated, but the cold might neutralize things some, and Drake Maye showing well would add to the optimism for the future. Rhamondre Stevenson being a runner that won’t be fun to tackle in the cold is my biggest concern about the Bills this week, but we might be thinking back on Jared Mayo’s comments a couple of months ago about New England playing like a “soft football team” if there isn’t a ton of fight shown out of them on Sunday.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
JAX (3-11) @ LV (2-12)
Sunday, December 22 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Many fans of the Jaguars and Raiders might be looking towards the 2025 NFL Draft more than anything else, but both teams have continued to play hard—and I’m expecting the matchup to be one of the closest of Week 16. Las Vegas getting Aidan O’Connell (knee) back would make it a quarterback battle between two former pupils of Josh McDaniels with Mac Jones playing well for Jacksonville, and each signal-caller wants to show what they can do for next year with strong showings over the final three weeks. Josh Hines-Allen might have something to say about that if an already not-so-mobile O’Connell is a complete statue due to his knee injury, but the Jags need to have answers for rookie superstar Brock Bowers after being completely torched by Davante Adams last week. Overall, I have more trust in the quarterback play for Jacksonville, and Travis Etienne Jr.’s speed could prove to be too much for the Silver and Black.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
SF (6-8) @ MIA (6-8)
Sunday, December 22 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
I don’t at all buy into the belief that Kyle Shanahan could use a fresh start similar to Andy Reid in order to get over the hump, and the disappointing campaign for the 49ers will instead be a blip when reflected upon in the future. That is not to say San Francisco is a lock to eventually win a Super Bowl under Shanahan, but injuries have hit them hard—and the team has continued to add talent with general manager John Lynch finding unquestioned long-term starters in the second round (Renardo Green), third round (Dominick Puni), and fourth round (Malik Mustapha) earlier this year. The selection of first-round wideout Ricky Pearsall was more questionable in my opinion, but it’s far too early to write off a rookie under normal circumstances, let alone one that survived a gunshot wound to the chest in late August. Miami is a different story, and some are calling for Mike McDaniel to be fired considering their struggles against good teams; but he can clearly evaluate talent (he was all in on De’Von Achane) and run an offense at a high level, so the Dolphins will try to finish the year with three consecutive wins and see what happens.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
TB (8-6) @ DAL (6-8)
Sunday, December 22 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Buccaneers are rolling and look like a very dangerous team in the NFC with a balanced offense, confident quarterback, and experienced defense—but the Cowboys can cool an opponent off in a hurry if Micah Parsons (2.0 sacks in three of the past six games since his return to the lineup) is at his best. In order to offset the impact Parsons can have on the game, Tampa Bay should play through Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in a variety of ways while being opportunistic with their shots to Mike Evans (basically, try to hit a bomb whenever Parsons is off the field). On defense, Tampa Bay has been a different unit with Jamel Dean back in the lineup by surrendering just 15.0 points per game since his return in late November, but CeeDee Lamb should avoid him for much of the night, and Rico Dowdle has been tremendous with 130.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. Cooper Rush coming off his first career three-touchdown performance and keeping the ball out of harm’s way gives the Cowboys a shot to keep their season alive, but I’m going with the Bucs to stay hot.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NO (5-9) @ GB (10-4)
Monday, December 23 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Packers are sort of in limbo over the final three weeks with a playoff spot virtually locked up but almost zero chance to climb out of a wild card spot—but there doesn’t seem to be as much pure craziness in the league as recent years, so maybe the nearly impossible scenario of Green Bay winning out with Detroit and Minnesota both losing in each of the next two weeks and then tying in Week 18 will come to fruition to give them the NFC North. More realistically, the Packers will enter January as a team capable of knocking off anyone, as their only losses since the start of October have been to the Lions twice, and Josh Jacobs is built for outdoor, playoff football (in his lone opportunity, he turned 17 touches into 127 yards with the Raiders). The Saints aren’t a team to overlook with interim head coach Darren Rizzi continuing to get the most out of the group, but Alvin Kamara (groin) is another key player that will be out, and it could be a long night for Spencer Rattler at Lambeau Field.
Winner: Green Bay Packers