Season: 166-74
KC (14-1) @ PIT (10-5)
Wednesday, December 25 | 1:00 PM ET | Netflix
Chiefs-Steelers is a potential AFC Championship preview between two teams that simply know how to win games—but injuries could be the story for their Christmas Day showdown. On defense, Kansas City may be without All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf) and Pittsburgh won’t have star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (knee), so the passing attacks should have an easier time; that’s especially true for the Steelers with George Pickens (hamstring) back as one of the most valuable pass-catchers in the league, and his presence will open things up for everyone else. Another key absence for the Chiefs is D.J. Humphries (hamstring), as the domino effect puts Joe Thuney at left tackle (where he might not be able to match Alex Highsmith) and creates more favorable opportunities for Cameron Heyward on the interior. Overall, the biggest advantage for Pittsburgh could be T.J. Watt (if closer to himself dealing with an ankle injury) versus right tackle Jawaan Taylor, and Mike Tomlin should have the officials on notice about Taylor starting early, which I’m sure the veteran will try based on the matchup. If the pass rush can make Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable and keep the same “rules” in place to contain him as a scrambler/runner that they have versus Lamar Jackson, the Steelers have a very good chance to come away with a home victory.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
BAL (10-5) @ HOU (9-6)
Wednesday, December 25 | 4:30 PM ET | Netflix
The Ravens and Texans met twice last season, and a better version of C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense in 2023 wasn’t really a match for Baltimore—losing 25-9 in the opener and then having their season ended with a 34-10 loss in the postseason. Unfortunately, an attackable secondary for the Ravens won’t be as threatened with Tank Dell (knee) going down with a brutal injury last week, so guys like John Metchie III, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson will need to step up behind Nico Collins (and Stroud must be more precise than he’s been when his pass-catchers get open). On the other side of the ball, Derek Stingley Jr. will see a lot of Zay Flowers as he continues his All-Pro caliber campaign, but my primary concern would be Lamar Jackson consistently doing damage as a runner after ripping the Texans for 100 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last January; and just last week, Houston had trouble containing Patrick Mahomes (five carries for 33 yards and a touchdown). The best shot for the Texans is having Stroud play like he did against most non-Baltimore opponents as a rookie, but I don’t see all three of Jackson’s arm, Jackson’s legs, and Derrick Henry being stopped on Christmas Night.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens