Season: 177-79
CLE (3-13) @ BAL (11-5)
Saturday, January 4 | 4:30 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The final week of the regular season is unfortunately filled with games where teams aren’t playing for much, and that includes Cleveland—currently the biggest underdog of the season (17.5 points)—as they stare a 3-14 finish in the face. Of course, anything can happen in AFC North matchups like we saw at the end of October when Jameis Winston lit up Baltimore with 334 yards and three touchdowns in a 29-24 victory; but the rematch will feature Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe under center, while the Ravens will be fully focused on locking up the division and No. 3 seed in the conference. As was the case on Christmas when Baltimore dominated the Texans, I’d expect Lamar Jackson to put up highly efficient numbers in short order before getting to rest by the fourth quarter, but the path to an upset for the Browns is stacking the box versus Derrick Henry and having everyone keep their assignment in coverage to prevent the back-breaking chunk gains that have become so frequent for the Ravens.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
CIN (8-8) @ PIT (10-6)
Saturday, January 4 | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Cincinnati has won four consecutive games to remain alive for the final wild card spot, but Saturday night will be a massive challenge with Pittsburgh not only wanting to keep hopes for the No. 5 seed alive (they’ll need help from the Raiders on Sunday), but also build some momentum ahead of the postseason by snapping their three-game losing streak. In the first matchup this year, Russell Wilson torched the Bengals with 414 yards and three touchdowns (and a pick-six that should have clearly been pass interference), so Cincinnati better have some things figured out on the backend. To be fair, the playmaking has increased for Lou Anarumo’s defense in recent weeks, and the highlight plays by Bo Nix in the Week 17 thriller were ones where you just have to tip your cap to the opponent. Still, the cornerbacks better be ready for George Pickens, and it’ll be interesting to see if Cam Taylor-Britt is used more in shadow coverage. On the Pittsburgh defense, having a healthy Joey Porter Jr. (knee) will help at least contain Tee Higgins with Ja’Marr Chase likely facing double teams, and I’m going with Mike Tomlin’s squad to knock a rival out of contention with a close home win.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
CAR (4-12) @ ATL (8-8)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Michael Penix Jr. didn’t play his best game last Sunday night with a few uncharacteristic downfield misses based on how deadly accurate he was on vertical throws at Washington—but it was at least encouraging that he made a couple of clutch throws on fourth down and on the game-tying touchdown. The flashes weren’t enough to keep control of the NFC South, though, and now the Falcons need help from a depleted New Orleans team in Tampa Bay to have any shot of making the playoffs. Making the situation even more frustrating is that Atlanta was arguably doomed by coaching more than anything else last week (remember, they turned down Bill Belichick), as Raheem Morris completely mismanaged the clock, and I have no idea why Clark Phillips III hasn’t been a starter on defense after providing a clear boost a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, a Carolina defense that could again be without a handful of their top linebackers might be overmatched by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier this weekend.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
WAS (11-5) @ DAL (7-9)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Commanders-Cowboys would have been a much more entertaining game if Washington lost in Week 17, but now it’s all about seeding implications—and Dallas doesn’t have the firepower they did in the first matchup with CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) out. Although the Commanders should undoubtedly play hard to get the No. 6 seed and avoid a trip to Philadelphia for the Wild Card Round, I’m always worried about Jayden Daniels taking hits, and Micah Parsons (2.0 sacks in the first meeting) can track him better than any edge defender in the league, so it’s something Washington should at least be thinking about. Instead of a game plan built around Daniels, the Commanders can probably play through Brian Robinson Jr. with Dallas continuing to be a bottom-five run defense that has allowed the most rushing scores in the league (24); and Sunday will be a good test for the special teams after Washington allowed two return touchdowns in the crazy Week 12 loss.
Winner: Washington Commanders
CHI (4-12) @ GB (11-5)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
I mentioned last week that Jordan Love’s recent play was getting significantly overhyped by the media for whatever reason, and Tom Brady’s silence about it on the Packers-Vikings broadcast seems to have him questioning the praise as well. That is not to say Love cannot play at a high level, but Green Bay has gone 0-5 versus the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as the three best teams in the NFC, and the Packers won’t be able to make a deep playoff run if their quarterback isn’t at his best (which he wasn’t last January). However, the Bears are a team to build momentum against, and Love has picked up where Aaron Rodgers left off with a 3-0 record thus far in the rivalry. I’m sure Chicago will want to start 2025 by beating Green Bay and building some confidence for Caleb Williams, but the offense has averaged 11.3 points per game since Thomas Brown was promoted to interim head coach, and the entire operation could use an overhaul with Ben Johnson or another head coach bringing in his own people to run the show.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
JAX (4-12) @ IND (7-9)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Colts owner Jim Irsay has stuck by Chris Ballard, but change feels inevitable following another disappointing campaign for Indy—and Ballard has now had eight seasons at the helm with zero division titles to show for it. Perhaps the craziest part of the Ballard era is that all three of Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee have won the AFC South multiple times, and the Colts finishing second or third in the division every year under Ballard shows (at least in my opinion) that he can find some talent (despite a lack of star power) but doesn’t know how to put together a complete team. We can also look at the quarterback position with seven different leading passers for Indianapolis over the past seven seasons, and the regime would have really struggled to find stars if Jonathan Taylor didn’t somehow slip to the second round. Jacksonville also appears set to have massive organizational changes this offseason, but Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. should be major draws for potential head coaches.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
BUF (13-3) @ NE (3-13)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
New England vaulting into position for the No. 1 overall pick creates a very intriguing dynamic this week, as Jerod Mayo said “everything is in consideration”—which would seem to include Drake Maye being pulled early to “preserve” the Patriots’ standing atop the draft. At the same time, Mayo’s grasp on the job doesn’t exactly feel secure after a 40-7 embarrassment in Foxborough last Saturday, and a non-competitive loss to the Buffalo backups might be enough to open the door for a change; frankly, general manager Eliot Wolf should be receiving significantly more criticism after the worst offseason imaginable with misses in both free agency and the draft, so things could get ugly next year if changes aren’t made with the fanbase expecting excellence from the organization. Based on how the Pats have looked for most of the season, one drive for Josh Allen turning into points could give Mitchell Trubisky—one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks—more than enough cushion for a comfortable win, and the Bills have solid talent that will step into larger roles this week, including rookie running back Ray Davis.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
NYG (3-13) @ PHI (13-3)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Fans might not want to hear it, but the Giants had the perfect mentality last week in pulling off an upset win over the Colts—clearly not caring about the No. 1 overall pick and instead going hard to win a game. In the process, New York avoided an 0-9 home record, and the “culture win” that those wanting to tank have mocked is worth more than a draft slot in my opinion; you can always move up for a prospect, but you can’t get back a loss, especially one that would have made the team winless at MetLife for the franchise’s 100th season. That said, Philadelphia already got one over on the Giants a few years ago by pulling Jalen Hurts in the season finale under the guise of wanting to evaluate others—which kept New York out of the playoffs and allowed the Eagles to leap them for DeVonta Smith. It sure sounds like a similar situation could be playing out this week (except Philly is locked into the playoffs rather than being locked out of them), so Giants fans that want a loss will be counting on Tanner McKee to outplay a confident Drew Lock.
Winner: New York Giants
NO (5-11) @ TB (9-7)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Buccaneers are in ideal position for a playoff spot by just needing to handle business with a win over the Saints to clinch the NFC South—but you can bet New Orleans will be throwing everything at Tampa Bay in an effort to end their season. Alvin Kamara (groin) and Chris Olave (concussion) playing in Week 18 would make New Orleans much scarier on offense, but either way, I’d expect trick plays, fakes, going for it on fourth down, and whatever else can be thrown at the Bucs. Spencer Rattler already making a start versus Tampa Bay this season could help, too, but the first meeting was an eventual 51-27 loss where Baker Mayfield overcame three interceptions with a second-half explosion—and the Saints no longer have Marshon Lattimore (traded to Washington) or Paulson Adebo (leg) at cornerback. Todd Bowles should have his team focused on the mission, but Mayfield maybe wanting to put up monster numbers after not making the Pro Bowl and Mike Evans being 85 yards shy of 1,000 for the 11th consecutive season can’t be considerations that get Tampa Bay out of rhythm.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
HOU (9-7) @ TEN (3-13)
Sunday, January 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
It’s unclear how the Texans will treat the season finale being locked into the No. 4 seed, but resting doesn’t seem beneficial for a team that needs to build some sort of momentum to avoid an early playoff exit. While the offense falling off has coincided with Joe Mixon slowing down (45.8 rushing yards per game, 3.3 yards per carry, and one touchdown over the past five games), there have been plays to be made by C.J. Stroud, and he needs to somehow flip a switch that reverts him back to his rookie form if Houston is going to make any noise this month. For this week, the Texans will see both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, but the pass rush will try to repeat what they did in the first matchup when they recorded eight sacks—and big plays need to be prevented after allowing touchdown passes of 38 and 70 yards with Tennessee still winning, 32-27, back in Week 12.
Winner: Houston Texans
SF (6-10) @ ARI (7-9)
Sunday, January 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The 49ers have been out of playoff contention for a couple of weeks, but the frustration shown by general manager John Lynch during Monday night’s loss says everything you need to know about the team almost certainly rebounding in 2025. On defense, Lynch hit two home runs in the draft with Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha both already becoming impact players as rookies—and the offense is obviously in good hands under Kyle Shanahan, so the rest of the conference can expect San Francisco to be back in contention for a championship next fall. Arizona has some work to do building up the roster to be among the top teams in the NFC, but the group already competes at a high level, and they also have some exciting young players in the secondary that will only get better. My primary concern is Marvin Harrison Jr. not being a great stylistic fit with Kyler Murray, but the two will work hard to create chemistry in the offseason, and the Cardinals adding another playmaker (a speed complement?) around Harrison and Trey McBride would help the offense make a leap.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
KC (15-1) @ DEN (9-7)
Sunday, January 5 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The doubters will find a way, but I don’t know how you can watch last Saturday night’s overtime loss for Denver and not be highly impressed by Bo Nix—who went 14-of-16 for 171 yards and three touchdowns when trailing last week against Cincinnati. Nix has shown tremendous poise all season, so I expect nothing less than another strong performance with the Broncos having a chance to lock up a playoff spot with a win. In recent games, increased involvement for Marvin Mims Jr. on offense has been a substantial boost to the supporting cast, and Denver has the confidence to beat Kansas City’s starters (with a blocked field goal being the difference in the first matchup), let alone the backups—but Nix and his teammates can’t press, particularly if they start slow. And it’s not like a preseason game where the Chiefs will have players hanging on a 90-man roster on the field, as Carson Wentz will view Sunday as a showcase game, and KC will be competing hard to knock off a division rival (even if it could lead to the Bengals getting in the playoffs). Overall, I have trust in Sean Payton, Nix, and the Denver defense to get the job done at home.
Winner: Denver Broncos
SEA (9-7) @ LAR (10-6)
Sunday, January 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Rams aren’t playing their starters this week despite a chance to earn the No. 3 seed in the NFC, but Sean McVay has always prioritized rest—so this weekend will be a chance for Jimmy Garoppolo to prove he should start somewhere in 2025. If Jimmy G is given time (pass protection could be an issue versus Seattle’s aggressive defense), Los Angeles has wideouts that can make plays with Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington perhaps being featured, and Blake Corum has shown well behind Kyren Williams and will get a chance to lead the backfield on Sunday. For the Seahawks, reaching double-digit wins in the first season under Mike Macdonald is a good milestone despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and the playmakers on both sides of the ball could prove to be too much for LA. Looking ahead, I’m curious how Seattle will approach the quarterback position this offseason, as a rookie quarterback would be positioned for immediate success there considering all the young talent on offense.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
LAC (10-6) @ LV (4-12)
Sunday, January 5 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
It doesn’t sound like Jim Harbuagh has any intention of resting his starters this week.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
MIA (8-8) @ NYJ (4-12)
Sunday, January 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Trying to read between the lines with Aaron Rodgers can always be difficult, but he sounds like a guy that is heavily considering retirement—particularly if the new regime in New York doesn’t want him back. Based on how Rodgers’ current contract is structured, a clean break makes the most sense for the organization to keep the cap clean beyond next year; however, if a restructure (which Rodgers said he’s open to) can be done in a way where the future “void” years go away while keeping Rodgers on the roster, that should be an option depending on the head coach that is hired. The sad part of the situation is there is doubt about New York getting the new GM/HC right, and it should really come down to getting people in the building that know how to evaluate quarterback play; The 33rd Team was brought in to run the search, but their limited sample size on scouting quarterbacks is… questionable… to say the least (for example: Bo Nix as the No. 109 overall prospect in the 2024 class). I’ll still give the edge to the Jets with Rodgers getting his 500th touchdown pass and playing spoiler versus Miami.
Winner: New York Jets
MIN (14-2) @ DET (14-2)
Sunday, January 5 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
I personally prefer a do-or-die matchup for Game No. 272, but it doesn’t get much bigger than Vikings-Lions for homefield advantage in the NFC. Injuries have hit Detroit hard since the October battle that they won, 31-29, on a late field goal, and Sam Darnold has gone from playing extremely well to playing at an MVP level since then—so things could slant towards Minnesota. In particular, the secondary for the Lions might not be able to slow down Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with Carlton Davis III (jaw) out, but rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold has high confidence by saying “we’re a bad matchup for Minnesota,” and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will throw things at Darnold rather than letting him sit in the pocket and pick them apart. On the other side of the ball, Jahmyr Gibbs turned 19 touches into 160 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup, and he could push for 25-30 touches if necessary with David Montgomery (knee) out. So, although Kevin O’Connell is very deserving of NFL Coach of the Year and the Vikings are much healthier right now, I believe the kneecap-biting mentality of Dan Campbell’s team, Jared Goff’s experience in big games, and the home crowd will win out.
Winner: Detroit Lions