Season: 167-75
SEA (8-7) @ CHI (4-11)
Thursday, December 26 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The four standalone games before Sunday will be very important with playoff spots up for grabs over the final two weeks, and the Seahawks are facing a must-win scenario for a trip to Chicago. Unfortunately for them, even a win doesn’t necessarily keep them alive if the Rams win on Saturday night and other results don’t go their way due to the tiebreaker for strength of victory—but we should expect a focused team on a short week following the disappointing loss to Minnesota. In a flip from the Pete Carroll era, Seattle has been much better on the road (5-1) than at home (3-6) this season, and the only loss away from Lumen Field was to the first-place Lions. In general, I’m not sure this is the best matchup for the Seahawks despite Chicago losing nine games in a row and getting worse since the firing of Matt Eberflus, but even with Kenneth Walker III (ankle) out, a heavy dose of the running game is the best advantage and something that needs to be prioritized after Walker handled just eight carries last week. Caleb Williams has continued to flash his high-end potential in a trying campaign, but I think we could see Seattle’s defensive playmakers shine in primetime, especially if the Bears fall behind early.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
LAC (9-6) @ NE (3-12)
Saturday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | NFL Network
New England has had some close losses including last week in Buffalo (24-21), but they are now 1-8 in games started by Drake Maye (excluding the win over the Jets where he left early)—while the Chargers have momentum after beating Denver last Thursday night and can clinch a playoff spot with a victory this weekend. The Patriots would be in a better position right now if they didn’t almost completely strike out in free agency and the draft, and Saturday will be a reminder that they passed on the opportunity to select star rookie Ladd McConkey (who needs 40 receiving yards to reach 1,000 on the season) by instead taking Ja’Lynn Polk (12 receptions for 87 yards) and Javon Baker (zero receptions). Second-year wideout Kayson Boutte has at least been a bright spot and is coming off his best career game (5/95/1), but Maye obviously needs more help in 2025 to reach his potential. Justin Herbert is the template many had for Maye, but the situation in LA is far better even without the star power of years past, and a cold-weather game in New England will be a good test for the Chargers if they want to win in Kansas City, Buffalo, or Baltimore next month.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
DEN (9-6) @ CIN (7-8)
Saturday, December 28 | 4:30 PM ET | NFL Network
Last week was a major missed opportunity for the Broncos, but one more win is all that’s needed to clinch a playoff berth—and next week now appears significantly more favorable with the Chiefs likely to rest their key players. That said, there is zero chance Denver will treat this Saturday as anything other than a must-win game, and knocking the Bengals out would be a tremendous boost to their confidence before January football. The two notable concerns I have this week are the weather (with rain in the forecast) and officiating (with the league perhaps wanting to make sure the AFC is still open in Week 18), but Vance Joseph’s defense should be much better with Riley Moss (knee) back across from Pat Surtain II to give them options to contend with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Of course, it won’t matter who is at cornerback if the coverage allows Chase to run free over the middle like Ladd McConkey did last Thursday night, and the Lions snatching veteran linebacker Kwon Alexander off the practice squad could be looked back upon as a huge organizational misstep. More commitment to the running game that includes Bo Nix getting involved as well is the path to a victory, but I don’t have a ton of confidence things will go Denver’s way.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
ARI (7-8) @ LAR (9-6)
Saturday, December 28 | 8:15 PM ET | NFL Network
Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention with their overtime loss to Carolina last week, so the night cap on Saturday is all about playing spoiler versus a division rival—and Jonathan Gannon seems to be a head coach that will get that message across to his guys. Stopping the run needs to be a focus, though, as Chuba Hubbard (25 carries for 152 yards and two touchdowns) and Zach Charbonnet (22 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns) have both destroyed the Cardinals this month, and the offensive line for Los Angeles is in better shape than it was in the first meeting (a 41-10 win for Arizona). In addition to improved play up front, the Rams will have Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the rematch (Nacua was out in Week 2 and Kupp went down in the second quarter), and Kyren Williams won’t be bottled up again (12 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup). Also, Los Angeles will have an easier time generating pressure on Kyler Murray with Paris Johnson Jr. (knee) and Jonah Williams (knee) done for the year, not to mention James Conner (knee) being out or less than 100%.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
IND (7-8) @ NYG (2-13)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Colts (and Dolphins later on) could be eliminated from playoff contention before Sunday if the Chargers and Broncos both win, but a possible lack of motivation probably won’t happen for Indianapolis—and I’m not sure it would matter either way against the last-place Giants. To their credit, New York continues to play hard under Brian Daboll, and the run defense has even been better in recent weeks despite losing Dexter Lawrence II (elbow) for the season. On offense, two of the bright spots for a group that ranks last in points per game (14.3) and yards per game (292.3) have been Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers, but the misevaluation of the quarterback room has held everyone back, and Daniel Jones (the only signal-caller to get a win this year) at least kept the Giants somewhat competitive. If Sunday turns into another rout to make New York a franchise-worst 0-9 at home and the run defense looks like it did earlier in the season with Jonathan Taylor going off, team owner John Mara might have his mind made up about the current regime before Saquon Barkley either pushes for 2,000 rushing yards or rests against his former team in Week 18.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
NYJ (4-11) @ BUF (12-3)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned the changing criteria of the MVP race just when Josh Allen fits what the voters were apparently looking for when he didn’t win in 2023, but the superstar quarterback has a singular focus on coming out of the AFC—and taking the No. 2 seed with a win is the next step. While the Bills haven’t been the type to rest players under Sean McDermott, it would be nice to get Allen and other players at less than 100% a week to recover rather than facing another potential battle against New England in the season finale (particularly on the road), and it’d also allow them to keep some things under wraps. For the Jets, new drama has surfaced with Garrett Wilson expressing some displeasure about his lack of involvement, but Aaron Rodgers has said the two haven’t talked about it recently; and I’m not sure Wilson (who ranks fourth in the NFL with 141 targets) making his frustration public is the best way to get more opportunities with Rodgers under center. If the Jets are going to pull off an upset this week, both Davante Adams and Wilson probably need to have big games.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
TEN (3-12) @ JAX (3-12)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Week 14 meeting between the Titans and Jaguars was a rare game where Tennessee didn’t turn the ball over, forced two Mac Jones interceptions, and went eight-for-16 on third down but still lost—as Brian Callahan’s offense couldn’t find the end zone with Jacksonville making a goal-line stand in the first half and then forcing a turnover on downs deep in their own territory in the fourth quarter. A similar low-scoring game is very possible for the rematch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunday turned into more of a shootout in an unpredictable AFC South battle (just look at the Titans’ 38-30 loss with a crazy comeback effort last week against the Colts). An interesting similarity between the two offenses is that they each have two very capable running backs, and we could see Travis Etienne Jr. (four carries for 20 yards but four receptions for 50 yards in the first matchup) and Tyjae Spears (six carries for 21 yards in Week 14 but four touchdowns over the past two weeks) more involved as big-play threats; Spears in particular has gotten more short passes with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and he’s shown a unique nose for the end zone.
Winner: Tennessee Titans
LV (3-12) @ NO (5-10)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
I don’t blame Antonio Pierce at all if he’s angry about how the season has gone because he feels he didn’t have much of a chance (which sounds like is the case based on his “ask Tom Telesco” comment about falling down the draft order because of last week’s win)—as he said he didn’t want a “Band-Aid” at quarterback last offseason, but that’s exactly what he was given. It would be extremely interesting to learn about what the conversations were regarding the position during free agency, throughout the draft process, and leading up to the season, but Las Vegas undoubtedly missed both from a league-wide scouting perspective and evaluating their own roster (as stated in the past, Aidan O’Connell should have been the Week 1 starter over Gardner Minshew). The current situation stems from unceremoniously getting rid of Derek Carr, and you know the former quarterback for the Silver and Black would have loved to face his former team; instead, Spencer Rattler will likely draw the start, and he should have a much easier time than he did at Lambeau Field last Monday night to get a win back at home.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
CAR (4-11) @ TB (8-7)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Buccaneers were stunned in Dallas on Sunday night, and now Atlanta is back in control of the NFC South with two games to go—so Tampa Bay will need similar help from another NFC East team with the Falcons taking on the Commanders. But first, the Bucs must take care of business themselves with Carolina hunting for another win where they can play spoiler, and Bryce Young was great in the overtime loss in Round 1 to begin December before the costly Chuba Hubbard fumble gave Tampa Bay the game. I would expect Todd Bowles’ defense to do a better job of containing Adam Thielen (8/99/1 in the first matchup) to make someone else beat them, but Young can spread the ball around at a high level, so generating pressure is crucial for the Bucs. Defensively, the Panthers must be thrilled with how cornerback Mike Jackson has played after acquiring him in late August, and he’ll be tasked (alongside Jaycee Horn) with slowing down Mike Evans—who needs 182 yards over the final two weeks to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th consecutive season.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DAL (7-8) @ PHI (12-3)
Sunday, December 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jalen Hurts (concussion) appears unlikely to play on Sunday, and after the Eagles were sailing towards the possible No. 1 seed and combatting any talk of a collapse like we saw in 2023—the door suddenly seems open with Hurts going down, the defense struggling last week, and Nick Sirianni getting into post-game altercations. Looking at the positives for Philadelphia, Jordan Davis hasn’t been given nearly enough credit for leading a stout run defense, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson being ejected last week certainly played a role in the defensive issues; also, if DeVonta Smith secures a catch that he makes 99.9% of the time, the story would have flipped to how Washington blew it and Philly scored 33 points with a backup quarterback. Nevertheless, the Eagles will face a big challenge as they attempt to win the NFC East, and you know Dallas is fired up to keep their rival from celebrating this weekend. Previous late-season performances for CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) against the Eagles would have made this a more perilous spot for Philly if the superstar wideout wasn’t shut down for the remainder of the season, but they still need to be ready for a fight.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
MIA (7-8) @ CLE (3-12)
Sunday, December 29 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The Dolphins were finally able to open a running lane for De’Von Achane to break a long touchdown run for the first time this season (50 yards, with the previous high being eight yards)—and it shows just how good of a pure football player Achane is that he’s been making a significant weekly impact without many chunk gains. As a rookie, Achane had a three-game stretch with touchdown runs of 55, 67, and 76 yards as he burst onto the scene, but his toughness on a play-by-play basis has been highlighted in 2024 and should have been known for anyone that watched him at Texas A&M. Cleveland plays hard and will be a challenge for Miami’s offense if Denzel Ward can match Tyreek Hill, so Achane needs to be the focus again, especially out in space where the aggressiveness for the Browns could hurt them. In general, Cleveland’s defensive line might be able to ruin the Dolphins’ playoff hopes, but the Miami is probably happy to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson rather than the gunslinging Jameis Winston, and Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out of his hands would help offset the pass rush.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
GB (11-4) @ MIN (13-2)
Sunday, December 29 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Vikings could realistically face only the Packers (twice) and Lions (twice) the rest of the way in a potential quest to reach the Super Bowl, and with two weeks to go, Kevin O’Connell would be my pick for NFL Coach of the Year because of the job he’s done developing Sam Darnold. Most notably, the former No. 3 overall pick has cut down on the interceptions after 10 of them across the first nine games—and a softer schedule has helped, but O’Connell has clearly struck the right chord since Darnold tossed three interceptions versus Jacksonville in Week 10 with a 15:1 touchdown-interception ratio over the past six games. Minnesota has a very difficult decision to make in the offseason based on how Darnold has played, but for now, he’ll try to repeat what he did in the first matchup against Green Bay with 275 yards and three touchdowns (one interception) to win, 31-29, and top cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee) is set to be out again for the Packers. Maybe I’m missing something about Jordan Love’s recent play to have the media showering him with praise, but the Vikings will be a measuring stick for the entire Green Bay offense, and I expect the game plan for Brian Flores will start with stopping Josh Jacobs.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
ATL (8-7) @ WAS (10-5)
Sunday, December 29 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Michael Penix Jr. had a very encouraging performance in his first career start, and the pure velocity that he throws with is obviously a huge advantage to get the ball where it needs to go in an instant when the rookie finds an open target. To me, the question was never about Penix’s ability when Atlanta selected him with the No. 8 overall pick, and his big-game experience at Washington (the state, which I only point out because some on X are apparently confused) should do him well for what is essentially two playoff games over the final two weeks—including his Sunday Night Football debut. The status of Drake London (hamstring) needs to be watched closely, but KhaDarel Hodge showed he can step up in primetime once this season by being the overtime hero against Tampa Bay, and Darnell Mooney will be a tough cover for the Commanders’ cornerbacks. My concern for the Falcons is them struggling against many of the top quarterbacks they’ve faced, but they did slow down Jalen Hurts in September and have created more pressure this month, so I’m going with them on the road.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
DET (13-2) @ SF (6-9)
Monday, December 30 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
As you might expect, Detroit possibly entering Monday night with nothing to play for from a seeding perspective if the Vikings win (setting up a Week 18 matchup for the No. 1 seed no matter what the MNF result is) doesn’t concern Dan Campbell—and they have added motivation after the heartbreaking postseason loss in San Francisco. David Montgomery (knee) won’t be out there after he was the offensive engine for the Lions in the January loss (17 touches for 113 yards and a touchdown), but Jahmyr Gibbs proved more than capable of handling the lead role himself last week (27 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown), and Jameson Williams is now a full-time player after he flashed with two scores against the Niners in the NFC Championship. San Francisco might have the pieces on defense to match Detroit, though, as rookie cornerback Renardo Green should be drawing Defensive Rookie of the Year consideration despite zero buzz from the national media, and guys like Malik Mustapha and Talanoa Hufanga bring the intensity that can match the Lions. But at this point, Detroit is rolling, and Monday night is the chance to prove the conference now runs through them.
Winner: Detroit Lions