Season: 26-22
DAL (1-2) @ NYG (1-2)
Thursday, September 26 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
What looked like a quality Thursday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Jets—because of New England’s surprising play through two weeks—didn’t turn out to be one, and Cowboys-Giants has a similar feel with Amazon staying in New Jersey for another divisional showdown. Perhaps the confidence built by the Giants in the win over Cleveland will be carried into a short week, but Dallas has won 13 of the past 14 matchups against their NFC East rival, and the revamped offensive line will be tested in a big way with Micah Parsons being far too quiet with just one sack so far this season. The key for the Giants is playing through superstar rookie Malik Nabers like they have over the past two weeks, and fifth-round running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. is the wild card after more work last week; but CeeDee Lamb is set for an explosion himself, and the Cowboys can’t afford to overlook anyone at 1-2 despite destroying New York by scores of 40-0 and 49-17 in their 2023 meetings.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
NO (2-1) @ ATL (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
New Orleans was cooled off last week with Philadelphia limiting them to 219 total yards, but a couple of downfield shots to Rashid Shaheed that were barely missed would have changed the game—so I certainly disagree with comments by Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson about the Saints being “pretenders” (which led to a feud with Micah Parsons). Unfortunately, injuries piled up for New Orleans in the loss, and center Erik McCoy (groin) being out several weeks will test an offensive line that had more trouble with Philly’s defensive line than they did in the first two weeks. Atlanta has the bodies up front to clog up holes for Alvin Kamara and will look to fool Derek Carr like they did Patrick Mahomes last Sunday night, but I would like to see more snaps for Clark Phillips III with Dee Alford struggling some, and the stickiness of Phillips would help contain Chris Olave and Shaheed when they go into the slot. Also, the Falcons not maximizing Kyle Pitts with increased usage on the outside has continued under a new coaching staff, so I trust the Saints more right now.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
CIN (0-3) @ CAR (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The offense let Cincinnati down against New England in the opener, but the defense didn’t play well either—and their struggles have only gotten worse during the 0-3 start. I didn’t quite understand Jordan Battle playing with the backups in the preseason after an impressive rookie campaign, and he’s seen just one defensive snap so far this year, so more action for the former Alabama standout would seem to be a simple solution to get the defense back on track. The Panthers showed last week how quickly things can turn around with improved focus, so a proud group for Cincinnati should be ready to play on Sunday, and they need to control the game by running through Zack Moss if the defense gives soft boxes like the Commanders did on Monday night. Carolina had their instant turnaround sparked by the benching of Bryce Young, but I fully believe it was a wake-up call for the roster rather than last year’s No. 1 overall pick being the root of the struggles. After criticizing the organization last week, I want to give credit where it’s due for general manager Dan Morgan making a strong move to acquire cornerback Michael Jackson (nine tackles, one interception, and three passes defended last week) before the season.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
LAR (1-2) @ CHI (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Not that any validation was needed for a guy with a Super Bowl ring, but Sean McVay showed the level of coach he is last week by beating the 49ers without Cooper Kupp (ankle), Puka Nacua (knee), Steve Avila (knee), and Jonah Jackson (shoulder)—feeding Kyren Williams 26 touches to move the ball despite facing deficits of 14 points and seven points in the second half. Chicago has done their best to be competitive powered by a takeaway-seeking defense and will be a difficult opponent to solve this week, so Los Angeles needs to shore things up on the backend to prevent Caleb Williams from building on some of the success he had throwing to DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet last week. The run defense has also been an issue for the Rams, but D’Andre Swift (1.8 yards per carry) has struggled mightily, and the Bears have been very disjointed both up front and in terms of their overall offensive identity. My concern about Chicago moving forward is Williams perhaps pressing due to the success of Jayden Daniels so far, and creating bad habits is the last thing the organization needs from their hopeful face of the franchise.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
MIN (3-0) @ GB (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Packers turning to Malik Willis with Jordan Love (knee) out over the past two weeks has not only allowed the young quarterback to shine in a great situation, but has also led to Matt LaFleur getting deserved credit for the job he does orchestrating the offense—something Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores even pointed out this week. Minnesota will be a major test no matter who is under center, though, as Flores has put together a top defense that plays with extreme aggression, which resulted in a shocking 34-7 victory over Houston last week. In general, this game is the perfect example of situation being important for a quarterback with Willis leading the NFL in passing yards per attempt (9.8) and yards per carry (9.5) over the past two weeks, while Sam Darnold is now 3-0 and coming off a four-touchdown performance to look like the player we haven’t fully seen since he was at USC. The Vikings winning the first matchup last year, 24-10, is something that is sticking with me, but Jaire Alexander has shown he can cover Justin Jefferson as well as anyone, and maybe he’ll bait Darnold at some point after a pick-six against Tennessee last week.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
JAX (0-3) @ HOU (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville is in danger of having the wheels completely fall off before October (if they didn’t already during the 47-10 beatdown against the Bills on Monday night), and the looming presence of Bill Belichick as a potential hire is suddenly in play for the Jaguars—as I’m sure team owner Shad Khan would be open to giving him necessary organizational control based on Trent Baalke’s failures constructing the roster. Trevor Lawrence is catching a lot of heat this week and needs to play better, but it’s another situation where the support system hasn’t been there with the lack of an offensive identity and premium resources spent on players that aren’t difference-makers (on both sides of the ball). The last time Lawrence won a game came against the Texans last November, but Houston will be prepared coming off a blowout loss, and they’ll also be prepared to make sure Josh Hines-Allen doesn’t beat them after 2.5 sacks last Thanksgiving weekend in the 24-21 win for the Jags.
Winner: Houston Texans
PIT (3-0) @ IND (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
This is one of the toughest games of the week to pick, as Indianapolis needs Anthony Richardson to be better, and Pittsburgh is a truly elite defense with superstars all over the place—ranking in the top five against both the pass and run to begin 2024. That said, Shane Steichen committing to Jonathan Taylor with 23 carries last week was encouraging for the Colts, and even without Taylor last year, Indy was able to get a 30-13 win over the Steelers with Trey Sermon (17 carries for 88 yards) and Tyler Goodson (11 carries for 69 yards) leading the backfield, so a similar run-heavy approach is the best chance to get a victory at home. The game could come down to the quarterback that is able to make a big play with either his arm or legs in a crucial moment, so I’ll go with the Steelers due to the experience of Justin Fields—who will undoubtedly go off as a runner at some point—facing a much softer secondary, while Richardson is still getting into the swing of things after a lost rookie campaign.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
DEN (1-2) @ NYJ (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
I regret not picking the Broncos last week with a feeling they would upset the Bucs, but they simply didn’t look good in the first two games—so the performance was extremely encouraging for a team that expects to be a playoff contender. Of course, the schedule-makers did Denver and Bo Nix zero favors with the September gauntlet of top defensive coaches and three games coming on the road (@ SEA, v PIT, @ TB, @ NYJ), so Sean Payton should stick with the simplified game plan that worked last week, including Nix rushing nine times for 47 yards and his second rushing touchdown through three games. For the backfield, we could see Tyler Badie (ten carries for 86 yards this season) be more of a factor moving forward, and I’d like to see Marvin Mims Jr. (24% snaps played last week) and Troy Franklin (25%) be targeted more versus a New York secondary that can struggle (relatively speaking as a top pass defense) versus speedier wideouts. I don’t have the same feeling that Denver can escape with a win that I did last week, but the game should be closer than expected if Nix takes care of the ball again and Aaron Rodgers has trouble versus an underrated defense that has blitzed about 50% of the time.
Winner: New York Jets
PHI (2-1) @ TB (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Todd Bowles has been the kryptonite for Jalen Hurts in his career, as Philadelphia’s quarterback is 1-3 (including 0-2 in the playoffs) with a 4:5 touchdown-interception ratio and a modest 29 attempts for 116 yards (4.0 yards per carry) on the ground. As explained by Hurts this week, Tampa Bay’s pressure packages have “been different every time” they’ve faced the Eagles, so the hope this week—especially with A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both likely out—is that Kellen Moore will have the answers. Last week for Denver, it was some early shots and back-shoulder balls in single coverage to soften things up versus Bowles’ defense, but untested rookie Johnny Wilson is the only size Philly has at wide receiver due to injuries; instead, Jahan Dotson being used in the screen game and as a vertical threat should be the third piece behind Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert, and rookie running back Will Shipley being on the field for some designed touches like we saw in the opener should be in the game plan, too. Overall, I’m just concerned about the Eagles being able to cover Chris Godwin, and the Bucs have shown discipline containing Hurts in previous matchups.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WAS (2-1) @ ARI (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
The elite deep ball that Jayden Daniels showed at LSU wasn’t really connecting to begin his career, but the No. 2 overall pick dropped an absolute dime to put a dagger in Cincinnati on Monday night—and it could unlock the downfield accuracy more consistently moving forward. This week, Arizona will do their best to put a lid on Washington’s pass-catchers with the two-deep looks that Jonathan Gannon likes to stay in, so the Commanders will likely play through Brian Robinson Jr., and Daniels should keep his league-best completion percentage (80.3%) at a high clip by again taking what the defense gives him. The worry about Daniels is the play style if he doesn’t protect himself better (we did see a slide out of him in Week 3), and Washington needs to play from ahead to prevent too much from being put on the rookie’s shoulders like we saw in the opener. Based on how the Cardinals have played on both sides of the ball and how shaky the Commanders remain on the backend, I like Kyler Murray to get hot and win in a shootout.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
NE (1-2) @ SF (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
San Francisco is missing three stars on offense with Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles), Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf), and George Kittle (hamstring) all injured, so I’m not worried about the offense—and anyone questioning Brock Purdy without an all-star supporting cast just needs to look at what he did last week. The defense is another story, as Javon Hargrave (triceps) is done for the season, and the interior isn’t as good or deep as it was in previous years. However, the secondary can be among the best in the league when second-round rookie Renardo Green eventually enters the starting lineup, and the edge duo of Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd obviously has takeover potential at their best. The Patriots have a few extra days to prepare, but similar to the Raiders, open discussions about a quarterback change after Week 3 (with the talk then ending with a delayed endorsement of the starter) isn’t exactly the way to build confidence on offense. While this season has been unpredictable so far, Sunday feels like a get-right spot for San Francisco.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
KC (3-0) @ LAC (2-1)
Sunday, September 29 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The NFL deciding to suspend star safety Derwin James Jr. for “repeated violations of playing rules intended to protect the health and safety of players” ahead of a matchup with the Chiefs certainly won’t raise any conspiracy theories; after all, it’s not like Kansas City—in their quest for a three-peat—has been bailed out by a questionable call in Week 2 and a non-call in Week 3. If there is a silver lining for the Chargers, it’s that Jim Harbaugh can use the suspension as motivation for a team that has improved in all facets under the new coaching staff (just look at the difference for Quentin Johnston this year compared to his rookie season), and Justin Herbert has gone toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in the past. Still, Herbert being less than 100% with an ankle injury makes it difficult to go against a Chiefs team with clear championship DNA, particularly if Joey Bosa (hip) and Rashawn Slater (pectoral) aren’t able to play… and Travis Kelce is due for a breakout game against a team he has roasted in recent matchups.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
CLE (1-2) @ LV (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Las Vegas beating the Ravens a couple of weeks ago seems impossible based on how they looked in Week 3, but Browns-Raiders feels like a game straight out of the early 2010s—with the only thing missing being the dirt infield for a September matchup. Quarterback situations have drained optimism among the fanbases on each side, and a Cleveland reporter floating the idea of Deshaun Watson being more involved in the running game to boost the offense was shot down by the 29-year-old defiantly saying he’s “not a running back,” so we’ll see if the status quo is good enough this week. Defensively, the Browns failed to contain Malik Nabers last week, but I don’t think Las Vegas will funnel the offense through Davante Adams in the same manner, and Gardner Minshew II isn’t playing with the confidence he had last year in a shootout loss to the Browns where he totaled four touchdowns. This is a toss-up with the quarterback that can limit the mistakes likely coming out on top, so the Raiders get the edge at Allegiant Stadium after being embarrassed last week in the home opener.
Winner: Las Vegas Raiders
BUF (3-0) @ BAL (1-2)
Sunday, September 29 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL through three weeks, and any questions about it taking time for the new-look receiving corps to gel have completely evaporated, which isn’t a huge surprise with Josh Allen under center. Khalil Shakir is the only holdover from last season, and he’s just one reception away from breaking the record for most consecutive targets caught (27)—and it’s scary to think what Buffalo might look like when Keon Coleman puts everything together. Baltimore will be the biggest test so far this season as an opponent that Allen hasn’t been at his best against, but the same can be said for Lamar Jackson versus Sean McDermott’s defense, and each offense will want to strike more balance than they’ve had in recent matchups. For the Ravens, that means a heavy dose of Derrick Henry—who had a monster 143-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Bills in 2021 and hasn’t lost a step—and I also think Isaiah Likely will be more involved after a couple of quiet weeks. Baltimore is again the more desperate team like they were last Sunday in Dallas, but Buffalo might just be better, and Allen has yet to make a mistake as a passer to begin 2024.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
TEN (0-3) @ MIA (1-2)
Monday, September 30 | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN
For a game that wasn’t too far out of reach last week with the Dolphins only being down two possessions until less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, De’Von Achane didn’t get enough work on the ground (11 carries) or through the air (three receptions)—but I expect Mike McDaniel will make sure that won’t be the case in an important game on Monday night. The starting quarterback for Miami is still up in the air with Skylar Thompson (chest) injured, but Tyler Huntley would be the best option in my opinion, including the ability to put stress on the defense with his legs (which could take the pressure off Achane). We might also see more of Tyreek Hill in the backfield after it’s something I thought would be a priority when he was acquired to play in McDaniel’s offense, but either way, the Dolphins must be led by their defense until Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is back. For the Titans, they need Will Levis to play like he did late in the shocking comeback win over Miami last December, but the results have not been good to begin 2024, and a loss on Monday night could lead to some conversations about the quarterback position during the Week 5 bye.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
SEA (3-0) @ DET (2-1)
Monday, September 30 | 8:15 PM ET | ABC
Seahawks-Lions has the makings of a Monday Night Football classic, and I’m excited to watch the battles on both sides of the ball—including DK Metcalf in more of a downfield role against a rebuilt cornerback group, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs being featured versus a defense that is better attacked on the ground, and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson facing star left tackle Charles Cross. That’s without throwing in the crazy Detroit crowd for a primetime game (and the new black alternate uniforms for the first time), but this could very well be a playoff preview. Remember, the Lions had no answers for the Ravens in a 38-6 loss when Mike Macdonald was the defensive coordinator there last year, so the counters that Ben Johnson comes up with is the storyline of the game; my guess is that we will see a heavy dose of Montgomery and Gibbs like we did last week to recalibrate the offense, and Jameson Williams being a full-time player could lead to a shot if the running game forces the safeties to creep up. Jared Goff will need to take care of the ball with four interceptions through three weeks, but I like Detroit to come out on top for what should be a very close game.
Winner: Detroit Lions