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Home / frontnfl / 2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 5
Andy Kenutis/Minnesota Vikings

2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 5


Last week: 7-9

Season: 33-31

 

TB (3-1) @ ATL (2-2)

Thursday, October 3 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video

 

It’s still early in the season, but first place in the NFC South is on the line to begin Week 5, and every game between divisional foes is extremely important with Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans all expected to be in contention. The Falcons have been battle tested with all close games so far this year, but the Bucs have a ton of pride as the back-to-back-to-back defending champions of the division, and a streaky Baker Mayfield might be able to carry the on-fire performance versus Philadelphia into a short week. Atlanta should blitz at a high rate similar to Denver a couple of weeks ago when Mayfield was sacked seven times, but the Falcons’ ability to limit big plays will be tested versus Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving has been an electric change-of-pace option alongside Rachaad White. For the Atlanta offense, it’s still very disappointing to not see Kyle Pitts used like he should be (look at what he did as a featured weapon outside the numbers at Florida), so I’m leaning towards Tampa Bay with Vita Vea making an impact in his return to the lineup last week and Mayfield playing confident football for a team that is able to keep a chip on their shoulder despite the success.

 

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

NYJ (2-2) @ MIN (4-0)

Sunday, October 6 | 9:30 AM ET (London) | NFL Network

 

The Vikings join the Chiefs as the only undefeated team in the league as the calendar turns to October, but there is no indication Sam Darnold will start seeing ghosts—though that will be tested as he tries to exercise some demons versus his former team in London. While I’m sure Kevin O’Connell will have some ideas about how to attack Robert Saleh’s defense with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, I’d expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones based on the matchup, as the Jets are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and may not “want” to stop the run because of the firepower for Minnesota. On the other side of the ball, New York needs to try pounding the ball with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to keep Brian Flores’ defense honest, and I’d look for Aaron Rodgers to consistently use the hard count; even if it doesn’t lead to connecting on one of his patented free plays, it’d be effective to at least give an aggressive defense something else to think about. In general, the Jets aren’t on the same page offensively right now, and a trade for Davante Adams might be the cure—and necessary—if they fall to 2-3 for what was supposed to be an “easy” early-season schedule.

 

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

 

CAR (1-3) @ CHI (2-2)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Chicago hasn’t lived up to expectations so far on offense, but the defense remains an extremely opportunistic group—allowing a 2:5 touchdown-interception ratio with multiple takeaways in three-of-four games. This week, they can’t overlook a Carolina squad that has played better with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and the passing game under Dave Canales has been designed to get the ball out of the veteran’s hands very quickly, so it’ll be an interesting test considering all the size up front for the Bears. Canales has made it known that the offense will revolve around Diontae Johnson, but rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders is a guy I would like to see more involved (down to 29% snaps played last week after 73% snaps played in the opener), especially if Chicago has extra eyes on Johnson. Overall, the key injuries for the Panthers on defense might be too difficult to overcome with Shaq Thompson (Achilles) going down along with Derrick Brown (knee), and the combination of Caleb Williams and DJ Moore should click eventually.

 

Winner: Chicago Bears

 

BAL (2-2) @ CIN (1-3)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

A letdown for Baltimore following a blowout victory against the Bills isn’t something I’d expect to happen considering how they stacked together dominant wins in 2023, but Cincinnati is a dangerous opponent that has clicked offensively with 33.5 points per game the past two weeks. Defense is another story for the Bengals, though, and they need to quickly figure things out to have any shot of stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as the scariest version we’ve seen of the Ravens current core—which is 8-2 against Cincinnati with the two-time NFL MVP under center. The Bengals being able to strike balance last week with Zack Moss (19 touches for 78 yards and a touchdown) and Chase Brown (17 touches for 92 yards and two touchdowns) each being a major factor should open things up for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins moving forward, but it’s tough to win with the defense playing as poorly as it is. If a high-scoring game breaks out, Zay Flowers is the pass-catcher primed to emerge for Baltimore.

 

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

BUF (3-1) @ HOU (3-1)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Bills-Texans not being a primetime matchup when the schedule came out was a huge surprise, but the storyline of Stefon Diggs taking on his former team shouldn’t overshadow just how crucial the game could be between two Super Bowl contenders that hope to come out of the AFC. A blowout loss to the Ravens will have Buffalo focused this weekend, and I would like to see the offense become slightly less balanced by playing through Dalton Kincaid at a higher level with a downtick in receiving yards per game (42.1 to 33.0) and targets per game (5.7 to 4.5). The potential absence of Khalil Shakir (ankle) might lead to that happening, and Curtis Samuel also needs to be more involved as a disappointment thus far in the first season of a three-year, $24-million deal. Houston has shown they will center things around Nico Collins despite having a similar spread-the-wealth offense with Diggs, Tank Dell, and others, so we’ll see if the Bills being stouter on the perimeter leads to Collins being less of a priority this week. I wish both sides were at full strength with Joe Mixon (ankle) highly questionable and Von Miller suspended, but Josh Allen will be determined and gets the edge on the road.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills

 

IND (2-2) @ JAX (0-4)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

There has been talk of Doug Pederson losing the locker room in Jacksonville, and maybe that will be the case after he put quite a bit of blame on the players after last week’s loss. However, Trevor Lawrence gave a strong denial when asked about the rumors, and the Jags did nearly upset the Texans last week—coming up short in large part due to a goal-line stand by Houston that would have given Jacksonville a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter. It seems the Jags could be catching a break this week with Jonathan Taylor (ankle) injured, but Trey Sermon is a very capable replacement, and as someone that loved Anthony Richardson coming out of Florida, a real case could be made that Joe Flacco is the better option if Indy’s starter is unable to go with his hip injury. No matter who is at quarterback, the Colts need to stop Josh Hines-Allen to make sure Jacksonville stays winless, as the superstar defender has 8.0 sacks over the past five meetings with a 4-1 record in those games. The likely absence of Taylor gives the Jaguars more firepower on offense, and Sunday is the start of their only opportunity to turn things around with a winnable London trip (@ CHI, v NE) starting next week.

 

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

 

MIA (1-3) @ NE (1-3)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Miami has been close to inept offensively with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out of the lineup, and their lack of a backup plan for a guy with his concerning injury history might doom the season if they can’t find a way to beat the struggling Patriots this week. I like Tyler Huntley and think he will benefit from a Week 6 bye to dive deeper into the playbook, but Jake Fromm was the obvious name that would have kept the Dolphins competitive; and for anyone doubting that, look at what he did in his lone preseason after being signed off the street—which drew the praise of Detroit’s coaching staff for how quickly he picked up the offense. New England not being any better on offense will help Miami this week, but I’m worried about the Dolphins simply not being mentally strong enough to overcome their early-season struggles. Still, there is really no match when it comes to the playmakers on each offense, and Mike McDaniel should empty the playbook by finding any possible way to get the ball in the hands of De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle in space.

 

Winner: Miami Dolphins

 

CLE (1-3) @ WAS (3-1)

Sunday, October 6 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The combination of Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury has been sensational to begin 2024, but October will be telling as opponents adjust and a more difficult schedule (in terms of defenses) kicks in with matchups against the Browns, Ravens, and Bears in three-of-four games. Cleveland is an intriguing matchup because they have a great cornerback trio to create more difficult openings for Daniels to attack through the air, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has the speed to track the No. 2 overall pick when he breaks contain. The bigger challenge is actually bringing Daniels down when defenders get their hands on him, so Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz wanting to attack can’t be taken overboard with the aggressive defense over pursuing and allowing for back-breaking plays. On offense, the Browns should be getting David Njoku (ankle) back this week, and Deshaun Watson needs to play better in a tremendous spot against a paper-thin secondary that has allowed 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions so far this season.

 

Winner: Washington Commanders

 

LV (2-2) @ DEN (2-2)

Sunday, October 6 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

 

Davante Adams requesting a trade has dominated airwaves this week and will be all many are talking about leading up to Raiders-Broncos, but if we focus on the game itself, Denver is flying way under the radar as a defense by shutting down the Bucs and Jets over the past two weeks. Dating back to the second half of last season, the Broncos have played at an elite level under Vance Joseph—who deserves a ton of credit for the turnaround (remember, it seemed he might be fired when the Dolphins dropped 70 on Denver last year in Week 3). Brock Bowers is the main concern this week considering the history of struggles defending tight ends for Joseph’s units, but Pat Surtain II not needing to shadow Davante Adams will allow the Broncos to be more versatile in what they want to do, especially with a confident Riley Moss stepping up in a big way alongside Surtain and Ja’Quan McMillian. Bo Nix is also gaining confidence by taking care of the ball in two consecutive road wins, and he should again be asked to manage the game with Las Vegas not defending the run close to the level they did under Antonio Pierce in 2023—allowing 5.1 yards per carry through four weeks.

 

Winner: Denver Broncos

 

ARI (1-3) @ SF (2-2)

Sunday, October 6 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

 

Last week, I mentioned the 49ers—even after the season-ending injury to Javon Hargrave (triceps)—still being in good shape defensively because of their young talent on the backend, which we saw a glimpse of as Renardo Green played meaningful snaps in the win over New England. Basically, a secondary of Charvarius Ward, Green, and Deommodore Lenoir at cornerback with Ji’Ayir Brown, Talanoa Hufanga, and Malik Mustapha at safety brings an exciting combination of athleticism, versatility, toughness, physicality, and cover talent; and that’s obviously without mentioning Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd off the edge or Fred Warner at the middle of it all on the second level. Arizona doesn’t have the same talent on the roster at this point, and they are in a very difficult spot with increased outside expectations prior to the season and an extremely challenging schedule the rest of the way with December matchups against the Panthers and Patriots probably being the only games they’ll be favored in.

 

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

 

GB (2-2) @ LAR (1-3)

Sunday, October 6 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

 

The Packers didn’t have the balance they would have liked last week in the loss to Minnesota as Josh Jacobs saw nine carries compared to 54 pass attempts for Jordan Love in his return to the lineup, but there were certainly bright spots in a comeback effort as Jayden Reed (7/139/1) went off again and Dontayvion Wicks (5/78/2) stepped up after Christian Watson (ankle) left the game. I get the feeling Romeo Doubs could be the one to lead the passing attack this week, which speaks to the quality and depth of Green Bay’s pass-catchers—and why Matt LaFleur’s offense is so tough to defend. When healthy, the Rams have a very similar approach, but not having Cooper Kupp (ankle) or Puka Nacua (knee) limits what Sean McVay can do; I’d personally like to see Tyler Johnson be re-involved after dropping down to 16% of the snaps played in Week 4. Either way, the Rams will play through Kyren Williams as much as possible, and Colby Parkinson could be key with the Packers showing vulnerability against opposing tight ends. McVay could certainly find a way to pull off another short-handed win like he did against the Niners a couple of weeks ago, but Green Bay getting Jaire Alexander (groin) back would be a significant boost.

 

Winner: Green Bay Packers

 

NYG (1-3) @ SEA (3-1)

Sunday, October 6 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

 

Malik Nabers (concussion) seems likely to be out this weekend after going down late in last Thursday night’s loss, and Devin Singletary (groin) could join him—putting Brian Daboll’s offense in a very difficult spot, particularly in an environment like the one they’ll face in Seattle. That said, fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. is ready to an expanded role if needed, and we saw his ability in Week 4 on a screen pass with a defender bouncing off him along the sideline. Whether it’s Singletary or Tracy leading the backfield, New York is much better off trying to move the ball on the ground rather than testing Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen without Nabers in the lineup, and the last thing they need is for Daniel Jones to have his confidence drained by chucking the ball around versus a playmaking defense. Even at full strength, I would have serious doubts about the Giants being able to keep up on the road with no answers for DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett… not to mention Kenneth Walker III being a true gamebreaker every time he touches the ball.

 

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

 

DAL (2-2) @ PIT (3-1)

Sunday, October 6 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

 

I have defended Mike McCarthy over the past couple of years, and his offense clearly still works based on how good Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have been over the past 12 months. However, last Thursday night wasn’t at all an encouraging showing despite the win, as it felt like Dallas wasn’t locked in and could have easily lost with the Giants having a shot at a Hail Mary in the final seconds. The decision not to call a timeout before Brandon Aubrey missed the first field goal of 50+ yards was a completely unforced error that a) added another factor into the kicking equation with a ticking clock, and b) saved a few seconds for New York. It’s better for the issues to happen in September than January, though, and Sunday night is an opportunity for Dallas to show they are a legitimate contender by winning without Micah Parsons (ankle), DaRon Bland (foot), and Demarcus Lawrence (foot). But to be a real threat in the NFC, the offensive line needs to improve, and suddenly coming together with T.J. Watt on the other side of the field isn’t something I’d bank on. If Justin Fields takes care of the ball and makes plays as a runner, the Steelers should get back on track with a win.

 

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

NO (2-2) @ KC (4-0)

Monday, October 7 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ESPN2

 

Rashee Rice (knee) not yet being ruled out for the season provides a glimmer of hope that Kansas City will have their top weapon back in their quest for a three-peat, but in the meantime, Travis Kelce will get back to being the offensive focus—and I’d fully expect a move for a wide receiver to happen if Rice is indeed done for the year. Andy Reid’s offense playing through Kelce with Kareem Hunt as the lead back and Xavier Worthy (although not Tyreek Hill) bringing all-world speed to the offense will have it feeling like 2018 on Monday night, but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t put up monster numbers in a while (236.2 passing yards per game and an 18:13 touchdown-interception ratio over his past 13 regular season outings), and it’s been the championship DNA of the Chiefs that has allowed them to start 4-0. New Orleans has also seemed to turn back the clock several years with Alvin Kamara totaling 536 yards and six touchdowns in four games, but I believe their lack of options behind Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed might be exposed in Kansas City—giving the defending champions the edge for what should be a close game.

 

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs