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Shawn Hubbard/Baltimore Ravens

2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 6


Last week: 9-5

Season: 42-36

 

SF (2-3) @ SEA (3-2)

Thursday, October 10 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video

 

For the second week in a row, first place is on the line in a competitive division, as the 49ers are looking to wake up from an inconsistent start, while Seattle needs to snap a two-game losing streak. I continue to wait for second-round rookie Renardo Green to be a full-time player at cornerback (just one defensive snap last week), but run defense is the bigger issue for San Francisco right now with them uncharacteristically allowing 4.7 yards per carry through five games, and the defensive line didn’t get to Kyler Murray enough in the Week 5 loss with a chance to close things out in the fourth quarter. Tonight, the Niners should expect a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker III after he only handled five carries in Seattle’s loss to the Giants, and the battle between DK Metcalf and Charvarius Ward will be key after Geno Smith and Metcalf weren’t really on the same page last year in their matchups. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks not having Riq Woolen (ankle) will be a major advantage for Brock Purdy and the passing attack, and Trent Williams should be able to slow down an emerging Derick Hall (5.0 sacks); keep an eye on Purdy’s legs as a factor with the Niners looking to avoid a 2-4 start in a tough road environment.

 

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

 

JAX (1-4) @ CHI (3-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 9:30 AM ET (London) | NFL Network

 

I believe the trenches will decide this weekend’s London matchup, and Jacksonville having Travon Walker play like he did last week—with 3.0 sacks and forced fumble—to pair with Josh Hines-Allen is necessary for them to take both international games over the next two weeks and claw back into contention. Unfortunately, the Jags are running into a confident Caleb Williams, and the connection with DJ Moore catching fire doesn’t bode well for a league-worst secondary that will again be without top cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring). I still get the feeling Jacksonville can make a game-changing defensive play at some point if Williams holds onto the ball too long and the duo of Hines-Allen and Walker can corral him, but the same is true on the other side of the ball with Matt Eberflus’s unit forcing 11 turnovers in five games, so the Jags need to hold up in pass protection for Trevor Lawrence to have time and pick up where he left off in the win over the Colts. I expect a very close game, but the absence of Campbell slants it towards the Bears.

 

Winner: Chicago Bears

 

WAS (4-1) @ BAL (3-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Commanders-Ravens was a game that should have been circled on the calendar before the season just because of the excitement both quarterbacks can provide—but I don’t think anyone imagined Washington would be sitting at 4-1 through five weeks to make it even more of a headlining matchup. Jayden Daniels is deservedly getting plenty of praise for his play to begin his career, but Brian Robinson Jr. and the physical running game is what has made the Commanders so difficult to defend, so it’ll be fun to watch the fiery Roquan Smith try to put a stop to the deadly rushing duo. The main concern for Baltimore right now is that they have entire games where they can’t really slow down anyone, but perhaps the hiring of former defensive coordinator Dean Pees as a senior advisor for Zach Orr will get the group settled. Either way, the Ravens are more dangerous than ever on offense with Lamar Jackson playing with extreme confidence and Derrick Henry (6.0 yards per carry and at least one touchdown in every game) hammering opponents, and I think they’ll prove to be too much for a Washington defense that remains very vulnerable against both the pass and run.

 

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

ARI (2-3) @ GB (3-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

I mentioned Arizona having a lack of talent compared to the 49ers last week, but Jonathan Gannon’s squad showed their resiliency by overcoming a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter for what could be looked back on as the turning point of the season. An area where the Cardinals do have some guys is at cornerback, as second-round rookie Max Melton and Kei’Trel Clark showed well in expanded action with Garrett Williams (groin) out last week—so we’ll see how Gannon handles the rotation with Williams expected back on Sunday versus a very deep Green Bay receiving corps. Interestingly, the Packers also have a rotation that is a bit up in the air with Romeo Doubs back from a one-game suspension and Christian Watson (ankle) set to return, and my guess is that Doubs will be used in a full-time role with increased opportunities in scoring territory after zero touchdowns across the first four weeks. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton (the brother of Max Melton) should remain involved, but Green Bay will be at their best featuring Jayden Reed in a variety of ways, Doubs in key situations, and Watson as a big-play threat. In general, playing through Josh Jacobs against a bottom-five run defense is the best approach to take the pressure off Jordan Love with too many mistakes so far in 2024.

 

Winner: Green Bay Packers

 

HOU (4-1) @ NE (1-4)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Not that teams should be making decisions based on the will of the fans, but I agree with a large part of the New England fanbase that has questioned the timing of Drake Maye’s insertion into the starting lineup. Although there is no “easy” part of the schedule until over a month from now, Maye will be contending with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. this week, followed by a trip to London versus Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker; so for the rookie’s sake, I hope the Patriots don’t expect him to immediately start winning games based on the success of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix. The athleticism of Maye should allow him to escape pressure better than Jacoby Brissett, but New England must play through Rhamondre Stevenson and avoid putting too much on his plate. Defensively, the Pats catch a break with Nico Collins (hamstring) going down last week, so Christian Gonzalez will almost always be on Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell—but Houston has shown that others can step up with larger roles in Bobby Slowik’s offense, such as last season when Noah Brown went for lines of 7/172 and 8/82/1 in two games with Collins out (both wins).

 

Winner: Houston Texans

 

TB (3-2) @ NO (2-3)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The Saints are another team with a rookie making his first career start this week, but it’s out of necessity with Derek Carr (oblique) going down—setting up fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler to start two games in five days with the Broncos visiting next Thursday night. Despite looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender through two weeks, New Orleans now faces a 2-5 start if Rattler is unable to lead them to a victory in Carr’s stead, and Tampa Bay should have some things figured out defensively after being carved up by Kirk Cousins in Week 5. The major weakness for the Saints at this point is the interior of the offensive line, so Vita Vea could live in the backfield to make life difficult on both Rattler and Alvin Kamara, and he’ll be supported by Logan Hall coming off his best career game (2.0 sacks and five quarterback hits) and Calijah Kancey (calf) set to return this weekend. As long as Baker Mayfield doesn’t get too aggressive following a disappointing loss, I like the Bucs on the road.

 

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

CLE (1-4) @ PHI (2-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The Eagles being extremely inconsistent and not having much of a pass rush this season could potentially allow Deshaun Watson and the Browns to snap out of their significant struggles—but Sunday sort of feels like the possible end of the line for Cleveland’s troubled quarterback if he doesn’t play better. At 1-5, the Browns wouldn’t have much of a shot at the playoffs (it’s only happened three times in NFL history), and an unrelenting Philadelphia crowd could lead to the wheels completely falling off for Watson, which might force Kevin Stefanski to go with Jameis Winston under center. If the Browns don’t want to risk alienating the quarterback they gave a $250-million guaranteed contract to (not that they should care), an in-game benching makes sense just to see what Winston can do while keeping the door open to go back to Watson the following week (“we just needed a spark”). Amari Cooper could be a difficult cover for Darius Slayton and Quinyon Mitchell if the quarterback can get him the ball accurately and on time, but the Eagles are healthy with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson back, and the bye could have them reflecting on the need to give Saquon Barkley more early carries.

 

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

 

IND (2-3) @ TEN (1-3)

Sunday, October 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Indianapolis may again be without Anthony Richardson (oblique) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle) this week, and Michael Pittman Jr. (back) is now set to miss multiple games as another key injury on offense. However, it’s the defense that is the issue for the Colts, as Joe Flacco more than did his job last week with 359 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 37-34 loss to Jacksonville, while Gus Bradley’s unit has allowed an NFL-high 419.2 yards per game (the only team allowing more than 400 yards per game). This weekend would be the perfect time for the secondary to prove itself with Will Levis likely under center and perhaps pressing after Mason Rudolph looked good in relief a couple of weeks ago, but Indy hasn’t been any better defending the run than they’ve been in coverage, so I’d anticipate a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The status of Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is the wild card that could slant things in favor of Tennessee, but the Colts need an answer for rookie defensive lineman T’Vondre Sweat just as the Titans need to make sure right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere has help versus rookie edge defender Laiatu Latu.

 

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

 

LAC (2-2) @ DEN (3-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS

 

A slugfest is expected this weekend with the Chargers (12.5 points per game allowed) and Broncos (14.6 points per game allowed) having the NFL’s top scoring defenses entering Week 6—but quarterback play should be strong with Justin Herbert healthier after battling an ankle injury last month and Bo Nix continuing to show more and more command of Sean Payton’s offense. Focusing on Denver, the running game improving over the past two weeks has been really helpful for Nix, and the connection with Courtland Sutton (5.5 yards per target) will eventually click; plus, Troy Franklin flashing his downfield potential (even though he dropped a would-be deep touchdown last week) adds another element to the offense, and I still think Marvin Mims Jr. should be more involved both as a vertical and horizontal weapon. Los Angeles has been even more conservative on offense with Justin Herbert averaging just 144.5 passing yards per game this season, and the Broncos having Riley Moss step up alongside Pat Surtain II has allowed defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to effectively play with the high level of aggression he desires. A low-scoring game could go either way, but I’ll lean towards Denver at home.

 

Winner: Denver Broncos

 

PIT (3-2) @ LV (2-3)

Sunday, October 13 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS

 

Everyone knows the job Mike Tomlin has done managing his team and a bunch of big personalities over the years, so it’s not a surprise that he has played the quarterback situation perfectly by essentially not naming a starter and having Justin Fields under center with Russell Wilson (calf) being brought along slowly. Wilson practicing fully this week might force Pittsburgh to make a clear decision soon, but the team has strung things along as much as possible to keep the door open for the former Super Bowl champion to enter the starting lineup at the first sign of Fields struggling without actually putting a label on anyone—almost treating both quarterbacks as the starter. Las Vegas has been the complete opposite with no direction at the position, and Antonio Pierce saying there will be a competition during the week and then suddenly scrapping the idea to name Aidan O’Connell the starter on Wednesday doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for anyone wanting to believe the Raiders are a functional operation right now. Maxx Crosby having a game-wrecking performance might be the only way the Silver and Black can win if opponents don’t beat themselves.

 

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

ATL (3-2) @ CAR (1-4)

Sunday, October 13 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX

 

The Falcons have been perhaps the most battle-tested team in the league through five weeks, so they are trending way up with Kirk Cousins not only knocking off the rust from his torn Achilles during the close games—but also thriving with the best performance of his career last Thursday night (509 yards and four touchdowns). A few extra days of rest should have Bijan Robinson closer to 100% as we await a 2024 breakout, and it could happen this weekend against a Panthers defense that has been shredded on the ground in back-to-back weeks. For the Carolina offense, they’ve crashed back to earth since a brief surge when Andy Dalton became the starter, and it was good to see Bryce Young flash in limited action off the bench last week—including an on-the-move dime. That said, there might not be a path to Young retaking the starting job with head coach Dave Canales curiously saying last year’s No. 1 overall pick entered the game due to injuries on the offensive line and wanting to protect Dalton, but the injuries remain this week with Taylor Moton (elbow) and Austin Corbett (biceps) out, so maybe that will be enough to get the dormant Atlanta pass rush going.

 

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

 

DET (3-1) @ DAL (3-2)

Sunday, October 13 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX

 

A highly anticipated rematch of the Week 17 game last year that ended with a controversial penalty that wiped out a successful two-point conversion for Detroit in the final moments, Lions-Cowboys should be another intense matchup this weekend between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations in the NFC. We don’t know what would have happened last year in Week 18 if Detroit had beaten Dallas the week before, but it’s fair to say the loss cost them the No. 1 seed in the conference, and it’ll surely be used as motivation on Sunday. A bye week gives the Lions and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson extra time to scheme things up versus a defense that may or may not have Micah Parsons (ankle) back, and the past two games for Detroit have included a hook-and-ladder touchdown for Jahmyr Gibbs and a Jared Goff touchdown catch—so Dallas defenders will need to keep their assignments to avoid falling into any traps laid by Johnson. I’m curious about how much the officials will let rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold play with a couple of the calls against him this year being questionable, but CeeDee Lamb will be a very difficult task for him and the rest of the Detroit cornerbacks in man coverage. Still, I’m going with the Lions as the healthier team with more offensive firepower.

 

Winner: Detroit Lions

 

CIN (1-4) @ NYG (2-3)

Sunday, October 13 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

 

The Giants were able to beat the Seahawks without superstar rookie Malik Nabers (concussion) last week, but they might need him in order to keep up with Joe Burrow—and the wideout’s status is highly questionable as of this writing. Whether or not Nabers is able to go, New York should continue featuring fellow rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. at running back, and the offense will suddenly be very dangerous under Brian Daboll’s direction with those two as the headliners and Daniel Jones playing some of the best football of his career. The problem this week will be finding a way to slow down Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins after the duo combined for a 19/276/4 line in the shootout loss to Baltimore, and I don’t believe the Giants have the options on the backend to contain them on Sunday night—so Azeez Ojulari stepping up in place of Kayvon Thibodeaux (wrist) to support Dexter Lawrence II and Brian Burns is crucial. Because the Bengals are the more desperate team, I’m going with them on the road, but the defense needs to improve significantly if Nabers is back.

 

Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

 

BUF (3-2) @ NYJ (2-3)

Monday, October 14 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ESPN2

 

The Jets firing head coach Robert Saleh ahead of a battle for first place in the AFC East was obviously a surprise, but the fact of the matter is the results weren’t good enough under his leadership, so it’s hard to fault team owner Woody Johnson for making the move an in attempt to salvage the season. From Saleh’s perspective, it’s easy to understand any frustration about the decision with a 3-3 record in just six games with Aaron Rodgers (if you include the 2023 opener), but a defense that was among the NFL’s best was offset by the team often seeming unprepared and undisciplined. Buffalo has also disappointed to begin 2024 with the defense getting destroyed by Derrick Henry two weeks ago and the offense being exposed in back-to-back losses, but having Josh Allen can cure a lot of issues—and funneling the offense more through Dalton Kincaid by treating him as the featured weapon would be my suggestion for how to get the passing attack on track. Overall, Monday night almost feels like a battle for Davante Adams with the Jets perhaps dropping out of the running if they sit at 2-4, but I’m expecting a determined New York squad and more run balance with Breece Hall… though I’m not sure it’d be enough if the Bills get back to how they played in the first three weeks.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills