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Kym Fortino/San Francisco 49ers

2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 7


Last week: 13-1

Season: 55-37

 

DEN (3-3) @ NO (2-4)

Thursday, October 17 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video

 

Broncos-Saints will be the first game for rookie quarterback Bo Nix in front of a national audience, and you should read our full scouting report on him—as our No. 2 overall prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft—to get a better idea about what kind of player can be. Through six games, we’ve seen plenty of flashes out of Nix, and the playmaking ability (something shown since he was at Auburn but rarely mentioned by “experts” in the pre-draft process) has been on full display, so it’ll be exciting to see him continue to put everything together. Tonight, the No. 12 overall pick could have a difficult time versus an opportunistic New Orleans defense that has the second-most interceptions in the league (10), but Sean Payton surely has some things in store versus his former team, and Nix should be highlighted as a runner to make up for the lack of separation the pass-catchers have created. Fellow rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler also flashed last week in his first career start and will have an easier time without having to deal with Pat Surtain II (concussion) on one side of the field, but the Saints have been thrashed with injuries, and I’d look for Vance Joseph to bring the heat on a short week.

 

Winner: Denver Broncos

 

NE (1-5) @ JAX (1-5)

Sunday, October 20 | 9:30 AM ET (London) | NFL Network

 

Expecting a close game last week for Jacksonville was obviously a mistake, and despite the high preseason expectations, they frankly aren’t a very good team with a 2-10 record since the start of December. I won’t call out anyone in particular, but safety Andre Cisco’s comments about there being “a lot of quit” last week seemed true from what I saw, and you can’t win games at the NFL level with a roster that lacks talent, depth, and fight. This week, the defense getting Tyson Campbell (hamstring) back would be a massive boost, and No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye needs his offensive line to find answers quickly if they are going to hold up versus Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. On the other side of the ball, Tank Bigsby will lead the backfield for the Jags with Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) out, but the passing attack should be in a better spot with Trevor Lawrence clearly having a ton of comfort throwing to Evan Engram—and I think Christian Kirk will be a bigger factor this week as well. If Jacksonville’s defense doesn’t step up after Cisco’s challenge, it will be a very long flight home.

 

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

 

SEA (3-3) @ ATL (4-2)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Seattle has dropped three straight games since a 3-0 start, and Mike Macdonald’s defense getting lit up by Jared Goff, Daniel Jones (without Malik Nabers), and Brock Purdy in recent weeks is something that needs to be remedied immediately for a trip to take on Kirk Cousins. Injuries to Riq Woolen (ankle) and Tre Brown (ankle) will have the secondary in even worse shape, so now would be a good time to see if Devon Witherspoon would be up for the challenge of following Drake London; I know Darnell Mooney has also been a top target for Cousins, but Witherspoon’s value as a top-five pick isn’t being maximized in my opinion, and he brings the combination of confidence and cover skills to shadow rather than spending a large chunk of time in the slot. Offensively, the Seahawks will be fine with Kenneth Walker III sure to start ripping off chunk gains as a runner before long, and DK Metcalf should get his wish of throwing beyond the sticks this week thanks to a dormant Atlanta pass rush. Again, Macdonald needs to find a way for his defense to play better, but I like Seattle on the road for what could be a playoff preview.

 

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

 

TEN (1-4) @ BUF (4-2)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

It’s unclear if Amari Cooper will suit up for the Bills this week, but I love the move by general manager Brandon Beane to get Josh Allen a pure separator on the perimeter for an offense that needs clean, on-schedule completions for Josh Allen to make things easier on the superstar passer. While the inconsistency of Cooper—including late in the season—is the one caveat about his game, playing with Allen and chasing a championship should bring out the best in him, and Buffalo has a much more dangerous attack with Cooper and Keon Coleman on the outside, Khalil Shakir in the slot, Dalton Kincaid all over the place, and Curtis Samuel mixing in. The bigger concern for the Bills is their defense, as it feels like they need to have all their key players on the field to get a stop versus top opponents, but the hope is that Von Miller will pick up where he left off before the four-game suspension, and A.J. Epenesa (2.0 sacks last week) stepped up after being challenged by the coaching staff. The focus on Sunday needs to be tackling Tony Pollard and containing Calvin Ridley (who Tennessee wants to get going after zero receptions on eight targets last week), and Buffalo can’t have a letdown following an intense win over the Jets.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills

 

CIN (2-4) @ CLE (1-5)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

The return of Nick Chubb (knee) this weekend will be awesome, but the dark cloud hanging over the franchise doesn’t feel like it will dissipate anytime soon—and it’s a shame Chubb worked to return from his gruesome injury for a team that has already turned into a seller more than two weeks before Halloween. If the fire sale continues for Cleveland, another move I would love to see happen is David Njoku to the Broncos, and Chubb himself should be on the table if it’s something he would welcome. As stated last week, I don’t see the harm in the Browns going with an in-game benching of Deshaun Watson by saying they just needed a spark (leaving the door open for Watson to remain the starter), and things could get even worse if the offense doesn’t improve with three home games over the next three weeks. Cincinnati has struggled some versus Cleveland in recent years, but the Bengals were much better on defense last Sunday night in the win over the Giants, and they have more talent and more to play for this weekend.

 

Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

 

HOU (5-1) @ GB (4-2)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Texans-Packers should be an excellent game between two ascending squads that are built similarly with a young head coach/quarterback combination, spread-the-wealth offenses that each added a star-level back in the offseason, and aggressive defenses with the ability to create chaos. I get the sense there could be bad blood created that extends beyond the matchup between Stefon Diggs and Jaire Alexander, but this is a game where the absence of Nico Collins (hamstring) could be felt, and Houston will probably need someone other than Diggs and Tank Dell to step up at wide receiver—perhaps John Metchie III—after no other wideout caught a pass in the Week 6 win. For the Green Bay pass-catchers, all three of Romeo Doubs (3/49/2), Jayden Reed (6/28/1), and Christian Watson (3/68/1) found the end zone last week, and I think the Texans can be exposed some on the backend with Jordan Love not needing to attack Derek Stingley Jr. The offensive line of the Packers will be put to the test versus Will Anderson Jr. (3.0 sacks last week) and Danielle Hunter (1.0 sack and two forced fumbles last year at Lambeau Field), but it’s hard to go against the home team for their first ever “Winter Warning” game.

 

Winner: Green Bay Packers

 

MIA (2-3) @ IND (3-3)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

It sure sounds like Jonathan Taylor (ankle) could be set to miss his third game in a row this weekend, but Trey Sermon (knee) is capable of leading the backfield if he’s healthy—and Tyler Goodson is a tremendous No. 3 back that can also contribute in the passing game if Indy is forced to turn to him as the starter. That said, Miami would have the clear advantage on the ground if Taylor is out with De’Von Achane (concussion) tracking to be cleared following the bye, especially after rookie Jaylen Wright (13 carries for 86 yards) stepped up alongside Raheem Mostert in Week 5; so the wild card is Anthony Richardson (oblique) being used as a runner, and the strong play of Joe Flacco could frankly make the Colts more comfortable using their starter on designed runs, which is something that needs to be prioritized if he’s going to reach his potential as an NFL quarterback. The Dolphins also have a rushing threat at quarterback with Tyler Huntley (who showed well as a passer last time out in the win versus New England), and he will have an even better grasp of the offense thanks to the bye week. Because of the injury to Taylor and question marks on the backend for Indianapolis, I like Miami to get a huge victory before Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) potentially returns in Week 8.

 

Winner: Miami Dolphins

 

DET (4-1) @ MIN (5-0)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The Lions keeping Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator for 2024 was likely the most important non-player move of the offseason, and it’s a scary thought for the rest of the league that “the well is deep” regarding Johnson’s arsenal of trick plays after they successfully hit for a touchdown in three consecutive games. Obviously, stopping a trick play is easier said than done, but as I mentioned ahead of Detroit’s win over the Cowboys, defenders keeping their assignments is the key to shutting them down—so I’m excited to watch the cat-and-mouse game between the two sides this weekend, as Brian Flores will have something in the back of his mind when dialing up pressure. The issue for the Lions at times has been getting away from the run (which happened in their lone loss to the Bucs in Week 2), but that will be tested with the Vikings allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (67.2) and just one touchdown on the ground this year. Another challenge will be the revamped Detroit secondary facing Justin Jefferson for the first time at an inopportune time without Aidan Hutchinson (leg), so the recently extended Alim McNeill will try to disrupt Sam Darnold coming off 2.0 sacks against the Cowboys.

 

Winner: Detroit Lions

 

PHI (3-2) @ NYG (2-4)

Sunday, October 20 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Saquon Barkley’s return to New York hasn’t generated a ton of headlines in a loaded week of NFL action, but I wouldn’t anticipate a warm welcome despite Hard Knocks painting a fairly clear picture of how things went down with general manager Joe Schoen not being eager to bring back the superstar runner. Although there is no denying the Giants have played better on both sides of the ball this season, it’s fair to wonder what Barkley returning and having a big game might do to morale both in the locker room and throughout the building as a whole. Unfortunately for New York, they could have their best two defenders in Dexter Lawrence II (hip) and Brian Burns (groin) out or limited, so the offense needs to step up with Malik Nabers (concussion) set to return; and I believe Philadelphia can undoubtedly be attacked if the offensive line holds up without Andrew Thomas (foot). Nabers needs to be the focus (particularly lined up on fellow rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean), but for as much as I like Nakobe Dean, the Giants trying to get him isolated on Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the passing game is another mismatch to exploit. Overall, I have more faith in the Eagles, and Barkley will be running angry from the other side of the NFC East rivalry.

 

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

 

LV (2-4) @ LAR (1-4)

Sunday, October 20 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS

 

Tom Brady has already become the NFL’s best color commentator in my opinion, but it’s weird that he is officially part owner of the Raiders—and set to have a prominent voice in team operations—while also calling games for FOX. If the Brady’s influence extends as far as selecting a quarterback, the connection to Colorado star Sheduer Sanders (having worked out with him prior to the 2023 season) only bolsters my belief that he might end up forcing his way to the franchise, though a lot of work needs to be done for the roster; and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Raiders clean house to get Brady’s fingerprints on all aspects of the organization. I guess we won’t need to worry about the conflict with FOX unless Las Vegas makes a Super Bowl that Brady is set to call, and the trade of Davante Adams at least gives them another draft pick to rebuild the roster to accelerate the path to contention. Whether or not Maxx Crosby remains in his prime by that point will be dependent on how well the Raiders draft and if they hit on the eventual quarterback selection. Zeroing in on this week, the Rams are expected to get Cooper Kupp (ankle) back on offense and should improve defensively as the young core grows together.

 

Winner: Los Angeles Rams

 

CAR (1-5) @ WAS (4-2)

Sunday, October 20 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS

 

The Commanders not having Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) in the lineup last week hurt their chances in Baltimore, and it was the first real show of weakness for the Washington offense without their between-the-tackles hammer in the lineup. Of course, the team will add more playmakers around Terry McLaurin next year and beyond, but right now, opponents need to mainly focus on stopping the run, including Jayden Daniels himself—who was limited to six carries for 22 scoreless yards against the Ravens. Carolina not having Derrick Brown (pectoral) severely limits their chances of repeating the success Baltimore had in Week 6, so it might take a dominant showing from top cornerback Jaycee Horn on McLaurin with the defense stacking the box to pull off the upset. Another path to a win would be Andy Dalton lighting it up versus an attackable secondary with Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette winning on the perimeter, but I think the Panthers would get more out of starting Bryce Young for both now and into the future.

 

Winner: Washington Commanders

 

KC (5-0) @ SF (3-3)

Sunday, October 20 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX

 

A rematch of Super Bowl LVIII will have a championship feel to it, and the NFL giving Kansas City a bye and San Francisco a mini bye leans into that big-game feeling to hopefully have both teams close to their best. Each side is missing their best playmaker with Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) still out and Rashee Rice (knee) done for the year, but I’m glad that Brock Purdy is finally getting more respect for how good of a quarterback he is, and Patrick Mahomes should be better than he’s been in recent regular season outings dating back to last year with the help of the bye week—when Andy Reid has an all-time best 21-4 record. In the Super Bowl, a lack of efficiency for Deebo Samuel Sr. (three receptions for 33 yards on 11 targets and three carries for eight yards) was the deciding factor in an overtime loss for the Niners, but I’m expecting Deebo to come out fired up, and a red-hot George Kittle will also have even more of an edge than usual after being limited to four scoreless yards in the February matchup. On defense, new blood for San Francisco in the form of Leonard Floyd, Renardo Green, and Malik Mustapha could be the difference and force Kansas City to consider making their own move at wide receiver to match Buffalo in the AFC.

 

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

 

NYJ (2-4) @ PIT (4-2)

Sunday, October 20 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

 

Speaking of wide receivers, the Jets losing to Buffalo on Monday night didn’t dissuade them from pulling the trigger on a trade for Davante Adams—giving Aaron Rodgers all the ammunition he needs to make a move in a wide-open AFC wild card picture. There is still a long way to go until the playoffs, but Pittsburgh is in strong position right now at 4-2, and I am confident Mike Tomlin is making the right move for his team by benching Justin Fields (who should be praised for how he handled himself when speaking to the media) in favor of Russell Wilson in order to unlock the potential of the passing attack. I actually like Fields more than I did coming out of Ohio State because he’s been such a force as a runner, but flaws as a passer have remained, and Tomlin knows you need to be able to throw the ball to knock off top teams in the conference. Even though New York will be a major challenge in Wilson’s first start, they could be without both D.J. Reed (groin) and Michael Carter II (back) at cornerback, and I am anticipating Fields to remain involved as a change-of-pace quarterback versus a defense that has had difficulty stopping the run. Assuming shutdown cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is up for the challenge of covering Adams and/or Garrett Wilson, the Steelers should like their chances at home.

 

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

BAL (4-2) @ TB (4-2)

Monday, October 21 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2

 

Confidence continues to soar for the Tampa Bay offense, which has gone for point totals of 33, 30, and 51 over the past three weeks—with the three interceptions for Baker Mayfield against the Saints almost being brushed off as nothing on their way to a blowout victory. The coverage issues for Baltimore seem correctable because they have plenty of high-quality players in the secondary, but a fix coming against Chris Godwin and Mike Evans might not be realistic, so we can probably expect a shootout on Monday night. However, you can be sure that Roquan Smith will have his guys tackling better than New Orleans did in Week 6, and a streaky Mayfield can’t afford to make mistakes against an opponent like the Ravens—who have looked like the best team in the league since an 0-2 start. Look for Baltimore to continue riding Derrick Henry (season-long pace of 2,440 yards and 26 touchdowns during the four-game winning streak) to make it even tougher to defend Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, and Mark Andrews; and Nelson Agholor is a player to watch on a deep ball if Jamel Dean (hamstring) is out for the Bucs.

 

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

LAC (3-2) @ ARI (2-4)

Monday, October 21 | 9:00 PM ET | ESPN+

 

An extra day of rest is good news for Arizona this week to have Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) cleared by Monday night, and they need all the help they can get versus a top-ranked Chargers defense. If the No. 4 overall pick is cleared, a potential battle versus rookie cornerback Cam Hart—after thriving in his first career start last week—will be one I have my eyes on after the former Notre Dame star (who had no business lasting until the fifth round) more than held his own against Harrison last year in college. Other than MHJ, the biggest threat for Los Angeles might be the legs of Kyler Murray after Bo Nix stung Jesse Minter’s defense with six carries for 61 yards last week; and it’s no coincidence that Arizona’s two wins this season have overlapped with the best rushing days for Murray (five carries for 59 yards against the Rams; seven carries for 83 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers). The toughness for LA defending the run and running the ball themselves with J.K. Dobbins combined with increased health for Justin Herbert has me leaning towards them to get the win and start 4-2.

 

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers